Living Through Step Change

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

I show myself to be not in the least a clever speaker, unless indeed they call him a clever speaker who speaks the truth.
– Socrates

THINKING OUT LOUD

Living Through Step Change

There are two kinds of change: incremental change and step change.

Incremental changes are small differences that we make in our lives or little differences that our institutions make to their efforts.

Incremental change is the easiest to deal with. Oftentimes we actually initiate it. Feeling a bit overweight, then maybe we go to the gym. Tired of one style of coffee, then maybe we change to a different flavor. 

But incremental change can also be thrust upon us. Get a speeding ticket? Gotta deal with it. Did your car battery die? Gotta change it out.

Generally, we can manage incremental changes in stride. They tend to be part of our daily experience.

In the broader world, incremental change—whether sought or forced—is generally useful to institutions. It can help institutions grow or adapt to changing circumstances to remain relevant and/or become more productive.

But then there is step change. They are dramatic. And can sometimes be cathartic.

On an individual level, step change is almost always thrust upon us. It might be the death of a loved one, the loss of a job, the dissolution of a significant relationship.

Step change can disrupt and alter the course of one’s life. It demands resilience and recovery. Most people deal with step change, while some people never fully recover from them.

At the level of institutions, step change can prove a fatal blow. Just ask Kodak, the once powerful camera and film company. Or Sears, the once powerful retailer to the masses.

If it doesn’t destroy, step change can force a complete reorganization of a company, an industry, an institution.

Right now, we are in the middle of a step-change period.

For many, the Trump and Republican sweep seems like a step change. Now Washington bureaucrats are at risk of losing their power and their jobs. A new collective consciousness, one that seems more conservative and much less trusting of government, is threatening the woke narratives of the last decade

Media is in the midst of a step change. The liberal-backed mainstream media floundered during this election, caught spreading lies and berating anyone not in their cult of “the truth,”— their “truth.” More and more people are now getting their news from social media and new media like Bari Weiss’s The Free Press and numerous other news, information and opinion sources on X, YouTube, TikTok, Substack and more.

Information accessibility is in the midst of a step change. At no time in human history has humanity had access to virtually every piece of information created since the dawn of history. How wonderful it can be to know “everything,” but how scary it can be since we may not be able to process all this information productively.

Communication is in the midst of a step change. At no time in human history have we been able to communicate instantaneously with most anyone else in the world. Here again is something that can be uplifting, as knowledge, feelings and values travel the world instantaneously. Yet this step change increases the risk of mass psychosis.

Globalism is in the midst of a step change. Globalism kicked off in the late 1970s as Western companies sought cheaper labor and lower environmental standards to reduce costs, capture new global customers and increase profits. Now the once collaborative and cooperative world of “we’re all here to make money” is coalescing into nations of like-minded values.

War is also in the midst of a step change. War has obviously surfaced in Ukraine and the Middle East, but the nature of warfare has changed. Today, a swarm of low-cost drones can destroy a multi-billion dollar warship or fighter plane. How soon until satellite-based lasers are weapons?

Energy is in a step change. Climate change fears, and sometimes hysteria, have pushed new technologies into the transportation and power generation industries.

Consumption has been in a step change for some time. Thanks to Amazon, many purchases are now made without having to enter a brick-and-mortar store. 

There’s a good chance more examples of step change are underway. Just imagine what AI will one day bring.

If you have this underlying feeling of insecurity, do not fear. Many of us do. A brave new world is being built right before our eyes.

We take incremental change in stride. But step change is going  to feel chaotic as institutions are turned upside-down and new institutions replace them.

The challenge with step change is that it always breaks something previously treasured and/or deeply rooted in our society before the green shoots of better days become apparent.

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

October retail sales beat estimates
Holiday shopping off to good start
So suggests Walmart.

Is food inflation about to jump
As Trump sends illegals back home?

Credit is harder to come by
As rejection rates rise to series high

THE LABOR VIEW

The 10 best cities for hybrid work
Why not also be on vacation?

The robot revolution to end hard work
Because we only learn from easy work, right?

Managers’ view of workplace AI
Very interesting survey results.

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

The ECB is worried.
They are losing out in global trade
With slow growth and high debt
“Far” right gains EU assembly traction

Europe hopes Trump can bring Ukraine peace
So they don’t have to step up themselves.

Natural gas prices rise in Europe
Is stagflation Europe’s future?

THE GLOBAL GAME

Is Venezuela’s Maduro at risk?
US calls his opponent the president-elect

UK seeks India trade deal
UK companies need cheap labor!

Xi, the new global defender of free trade
‘Cause China needs it badly.

THE UKRAINE FIRE

Ukraine hits Russia with US-made missiles
Ukraine uses British Storm Shadow missiles
US sends Ukraine anti-personnel mines
Russia launches massive barrage
Russia hits Ukraine with new missile
Killer drones about to hit the skies
Jockeying before a Trump peace deal?

North Korea has 100K troops ready for Ukraine
Living in North Korea really sucks.

Russia supplies EU gas through Ukraine
Uhhh…what…huh…

THE GAZA FIRE

ICC issues Israeli leaders arrest warrants
Bureaucrats know nothing of war.

Israel destroys 80% of Hezbollah’s rockets
Checking off their to do list.
But short-range rockets are still problematic

Israel hits strategic component
Of Iran’s nuclear program.
Bankrupt Iran ASAP
That’s Trump’s strategy.

THE SLIPPERY SLOPE

Russia preys on US defense firms
Putin signs updated nuclear doctrine
China preys on the US dollar system
China hacks US telecoms
Is a bigger war around the corner?

Utah drone maker wins big
Beating out VC-backed drone companies.

Some undersea cables were sabotaged
Was it Russian mischief?
Or Chinese mischief?

FINANCE

A crypto chief buys a banana for $6MM
It’s only money, whatever that is these days.

Private equity returns still slumping
They overpaid when rates were low.

Is the IPO window about to open?
If so, there’s a slew of candidates.

REAL ESTATE

Home prices need to fall 20%
So suggests the Oracle of Wall Street.
Yet home sales rose in October
American homes are our piggy banks

Florida housing boom is faltering
Hurricanes and too much inventory.

IS TECH A WRECK?

Apple’s China business is at risk
As Huawei’s chips get better.

Google created a culture of concealment
Trying to stay one step ahead of regulation.

Venture profits at historic lows
Can AI save them?

THE CHAT ON AI

Nvidia’s sales soar
The AI gold rush continues.

Think AI is powerful?
You ain’t seen nothing yet

Google envisions an AI future
Where humans don’t need to think.
Gemini tells student “please die”

OUR GOOD FRIEND, FAILURE

Influencers take share away from legacy media
They should not have outright lied so much.
1 in 5 adults gets news from social media

How to fix immigration
From the son of Bangladeshi immigrants.

The US sucks at health care.
Life expectancy vs. health expenditures

THE NEXT NORMAL

High school constitutionalism
Understanding the government better.

The graveyard of incumbents
Voters are rejecting legacy power
Twilight of the elites
The global meek speak!!!

The National Bible Bee is popular
Is religion making a comeback?

THE WAR ON CARBON

An unapologetic energy humanist
The next DOE head actually understands energy.

IEA sees 2025 global oil surplus
Is a permanent surplus inevitable?
Oil could plunge to $40

Litigators go rogue
Everyone using carbon should be sued.
Crack down on drilling, now!!!

THE ENERGY TRANSITION

US power usage to keep setting records
Technology is an insatiable user of power.

Biden rushes to give billions to clean energy
How much of that money will be wasted?

China courts Europe
Buy our renewable products now!
While China emissions soar!

THE EV DREAM—OR DELUSION

Europe’s EV battery champion
Files for bankruptcy

Stellantis lays off 1,100 in US
Ford to cut 4,000 European jobs
GM to cut 1,000 salaried workers
The auto game is getting tougher.
Will US automakers need a Trump bailout?

The cheap American EV
Is never gonna happen

THE CHINA SYNDROME

China builds 30,000 miles of high-speed rail
That it may never need.

Xi offers Trump an olive branch
Just don’t disrespect communism.

China shows off their fighter jets
They even have a stealth fighter
Look what we got, world!

THE WASHING-TONE

DOJ wants Google to sell Chrome
What about Microsoft, and…

RFK, Jr. is a big pharma critic
How will they work with him?
RFK, Jr. hates Trump’s diet

Most of Trump’s cabinet picks are young
Not old career bureaucrats or politicians.

THE DOGE

Entire US agencies to be deleted
Will this really happen?

Government contractor productivity sucks
So says DOGE dude, Ramaswamy.

Can he and Musk cut trillions from federal budget?
Who will hire order-followers?

MAKING A BETTER YOU

Why sweet potatoes are so good for you
Is it all about their color?

A strategy to improve learning.
Test yourself first before diving in

We need raw awe
To counteract our TMI world.

THE EXTRAORDINARY

The “morphing wheel” from South Korea
May transform lives and robots.

The physics around curly hair
Red hair, too.

One in five Americans
Would prefer to live in another country

MUSIC BOX

“Beethoven Blues”
Jon Batiste channels the composer.

Mumford & Sons with John Batiste.
“Awake My Soul”
Accordion and all!
More NOLA Jazz Fest fun.
“House of the Rising Sun”

“Never Ending Song of Love”
By Delaney & Bonnie.

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

The most popular podcasts in 2024
According to Apple.

Michael Moynihan from The Free Press
Discusses the Republican realignment
And where Democrats go from here
With influencers from across the political divide.

Democrats have lost their way
Bernie Sanders scolds his party.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

Ben Affleck on AI in the movies
This dude is wicked smart.

Red One trailer.
Someone stole Santa Claus!!!

Christmas Eve in Miller’s Point trailer.
Will it become a classic?

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

Haven’t prepared for Thanksgiving?
Get yourself some fried chicken
Or consider these 53 go-to recipes

The secret to the best turkey
Came from a NYT reader.

The humble bean
Is now the hot nutrition obsession

THE RANDOMS

If you believe Trump expected Matt Gaetz to get confirmed as Attorney General, then I have a bridge to sell you. He was just paying back a loyal supporter all the while knowing Congress would not approve him. 

Given tech’s insatiable need for evermore power, how long will it be before they start buying oil and gas companies to hedge their power costs? Meta is going all in on natural gas to power a mega data center.

Will Trump convince RFK, Jr. that fast food is less a killer than other things? And what might be those other things?

Have you ever noticed how well trained Chick-fil-A’s workers are? Maybe we should hire their alumni.

Are we in a period of mass psychosis, where common sense has been traded for groupthink? Or is the dam finally breaking?

People today are just overwhelmed with too much information and too many economic challenges…or maybe it’s not enough economic challenges.

Are we moving from a period where individual rights were more important than community rights back to community rights being more important than individual rights? Or is it the opposite?

There’s a phrase, “the lag effect,” that few people seem to understand. It is particularly relevant when it comes to government policies. When a presidential administration or Congress enacts some new economic policy, it takes months, sometimes years, for its substantive effects or influences to fully materialize.

Could DOGE be the most significant legacy of the Trump era?

Anti-Trumpers want DOGE to fail. How can ANY effort to reduce bureaucracy fail?

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

What If?
November 15, 2024

Trump Wins the Super Bowls
November 8, 2024