What If?

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

You can’t go back and change the beginning, but you can start where you are and change the ending.
– C.S. Lewis

THINKING OUT LOUD

What If?

What have we gotten ourselves into?

Donald Trump was elected president after being maligned daily in his first presidential term (and near-daily since), after being defeated by Biden in 2020, after becoming a convicted felon, and after coming an inch from being shot in the brain. Whoa!

Who has this amount of perseverance? How can a man be so fearless? How does he shake off ridicule, political attacks, media attacks, and legal attacks? And two assassination attempts?! How does anyone drown out the constant drumbeat of “you are literally Hitler” and keep going?

What’s this Trump guy really after? He doesn’t need to get rich. He already is, even if he’s worth less than he boasts. He doesn’t need to work. He can just hang out at the country club and try to win bets off other lucky rich dudes playing golf.

What’s this Trump guy really after?

MAGA. Make America Great Again. 

So Trump really wants to save the US? From what? Well, given Americans’ massive decline in respect for the government, the list is likely very long.

If Trump can “save” the US, then he may also be able to save the world.

Crazy stuff, eh?

If Trump can calm down Ukraine and the Middle East, and de-fang Iran and North Korea along the way, then we could have a calm period of global prosperity. For a while, anyway. Nothing is forever.

And then there’s the big challenge of figuring out how to convince the Chinese that stealing everyone’s intellectual property may be a quick path to economic power but it is not a sustainable path. Nor is it good for global trade relations.

The real loser here seems to be Europe, although Trump could be a “necessity is the mother of invention” influence on them, a catalyst that pulls them out of their bureaucratic malaise.

Trump? Savior of the world? Come on!

Maybe Trump just wants to be on Mt. Rushmore. Maybe he’s already noticed there’s actually room for another person up there. There’s actually room for more than one other person up there.

What if we wished for Trump to be worthy of Mt. Rushmore rather than wishing for him to fail? If we’re wishing for Trump to fail, are we not also wishing for our country to fail?

What if?

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

Inflation stays firm
Will rate cuts stop after December?

Auto repair costs skyrocket
It’s not inflation, no no no.

The bond market worries about inflation
Higher for longer until recession?

THE LABOR VIEW

China workers adapt to robots
But will there be enough jobs?

Return-to-work mandates
Are driving away good performers

Lots of Gen Z grads are fired quickly
They do not know how to work.

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

Germany is mired in a deep slump.
Here’s what’s gone wrong
Germany to reject Russian LNG

Trump is a shock to Europe
Can he be a catalyst for needed change?
Europe’s industry falters again

Europe’s GDP forecast is slashed
They’re at a sink-or-swim moment
Maybe they need more tourists.

THE GLOBAL GAME

Trump can pull the US further ahead
Suggests a Financial Times op-ed.

Brazil cozies up to China
Has China captured Latin America?
Time to get after it, US!

Money moves out of Japan
Motivated by the yen’s weakness.

THE UKRAINE FIRE

Ukraine prioritizes security, not territory
Is Trump about to end this war?

Putin to visit with German chancellor
Is a peace deal coming?

North Korean soldiers aren’t afraid of dying
Because North Korea isn’t really living.

THE GAZA FIRE

Trump’s Middle East picks are pro Israel
Putting Iran in a box.
Israeli forces push deeper into Lebanon

Trump to renew maximum pressure on Iran
As Iran plotted to assassinate him

Hamas peace talks stall
Can Trump negotiate peace?

THE SLIPPERY SLOPE

US accuses China of vast cyber-espionage
Have they got the upper hand?
China has stolen billions of US tech IP

The AI machine gun of the future
Is already here.

Australia to purchase US missile system
Guess what folks? We’re an arms dealer!

FINANCE

Warren Buffett piles up the cash
Does he know a market drop is coming?

Bitcoin booms
But can you buy a cheeseburger with it?

Democrats lost the election.
But a tsunami of money is coming to US

REAL ESTATE

The world’s largest building breaks ground
20 Empire State buildings in one.

Buying a house is expensive.
Maintaining it is getting more expensive

The newest US building boom.
Data centers to support AI

IS TECH A WRECK?

Big tech is struggling
To create more advanced AI
Intel got billions then stumbled

TSMC to stop producing chips for China
Lining up with US restrictions.

The next time you have surgery
It may be done by a robot

THE CHAT ON AI

Jobs are created by AI
To sell AI that will reduce jobs.

A 14-year-old boy killed himself
So he could be with his chatbot girlfriend.
Tech creates a recipe for loneliness

AI could eat quantum computing’s lunch
More powerful than Skynet or the Matrix?

OUR GOOD FRIEND, FAILURE

75% of us are either overweight or obese
Maybe we do need RFK. Jr. as a health czar.

More and more women swear off men
Democrats to lower their birth rate.
A gender battle is brewing

Can mainstream media survive Trump?
Is step change coming to legacy media?

Is big pharma the next big tobacco?
RFK, Jr. seeks change.

THE NEXT NORMAL

Some black voters are asking
What have Democrats done for us?

The Department of Government Efficiency
Should have happened decades ago.

Wokeness is about to leave schools
Can Trump make American education great again?

THE WAR ON CARBON

Global carbon emissions rise in 2024
The world will end soon, right?

The climate catastrophe panic
May soon be over
Greens lose against Shell

Private jet carbon emissions grow
Do rich people deserve a break?

THE ENERGY TRANSITION

Energy transition is “profoundly misunderstood”
Says The Economist, no less.
France shuns COP29
Argentina ponders leaving Paris accords

South Africa firmly supports O&G
Bucking the green lobby.

Berkeley voters reject gas ban
If even Berkeley voters aren’t happy with the greens…

THE EV DREAM—OR DELUSION

Volkswagen tries to save Rivian
So Rivian can save Volkswagen?

Will Trump kill EVs?
Or have a more balanced policy stance?

Mercedes CEO backtracks
On CO2 emissions target
He considers the current auto biz
A Darwinian race
EU backs off diesel limits

THE CHINA SYNDROME

China wants to be renewable champion
‘Cause they make those goods.

China trade surplus hits record
Cheap labor and almost free money.

EVs, solar panels, drones and smartphones
China tech dominates the world.

THE WASHING-TONE

Republicans steamroll the election
The majority of voters wants change.

Trump may move the EPA out of DC
Should he relocate more agencies?

Make America Healthy Again
Trump has some Dems influencing him.
RFK as head of HHS?

MAKING A BETTER YOU

Want to be more creative?
Here are 5 boring ways to do so

Want to improve your life?
Spend more time walking backward

During stressful times
Here’s how to calm your mind

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

A brief history of the most popular swear word
In case you give a f*ck.

Neanderthals certainly talked.
But what did they sound like?

Self-administered flu vaccine coming
Good news here!

THE EXTRAORDINARY

What can we learn from venom?
A whole lot of good!

The silverback gorilla.
Model of the monotheistic God?

The Notre Dame bells ring again
The French do good!

MUSIC BOX

Simon and Garfunkel, back together again
“The Sounds of Silence”
Pure poetry.

Harry Nilsson
“Without You”
More poetry.
How about an encore, Harry?
“Everybody’s Talkin’”
Even more poetry.
Bonus: Great documentary about him

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

The triumph of the counter-elites
Bari Weiss visits with Peter Thiel.

Uber music producer Rick Rubin
Talks about all his hits.

We must deal with energy reality
FutureCoal’s CEO talks common sense.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

Landman trailer.
Taylor Sheriden and Billy Bob Thorton team up.

Nosferatu is coming at Christmas.
Will he come visit you?

The early Oscar buzz
Get you some popcorn!

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

Start preparing for your Thanksgiving feast…

Turkey multiple ways from Martha Stewart
Pecan kale parmesan salad
Shaved Brussels sprouts & bacon salad
French cheese puffs
Cream cheese herb biscuits
Green bean casserole
Creamy gorgonzola polenta
Sweet potato purée with streusel topping
Ciabatta, sausage & apple stuffing
Gruyere potatoes au gratin
Cranberry apple relish
Old-fashioned apple pie
Yammy buttermilk pie

THE RANDOMS

If inflation rises 5% and the US dollar rises 10%, won’t that actually be deflationary for our imported goods?

Guess what Fed Chairman Jay Powell just said? “The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates.”

The S&P dividend yield is at the lowest level since 2021. Maybe this is why Warren Buffett is hoarding cash.

Kind of interesting how the free love 1960s and 1970s have now turned into the no love 2020s.

Trump is being criticized for some of his proposed cabinet picks. Keep in mind he has political favors to give his more ardent supporters, while he also knows his picks have to get through Congress. It is likely that Trump knows some of his picks will not get through Congress, but he still wants to reward their effort helping him get elected.

Is the election waking up the woke world?

The UN is a non-governing body of 100% bureaucrats, all with their own self-interest to perpetuate their job. Exactly why should we give them credible consideration? Are these bureaucrats the ultimate at being self-serving?

We all know that Silicon Valley leads the world in technological innovation. Amazing and miraculous inventions have come from California and likely will continue to come from there. But here’s the quandary: Why has California severely lagged in its ability to count votes?

If Trump really enacts import tariffs, maybe it will drive foreign companies to invest in US operations. If so, wouldn’t that be economically positive for the country?

Do we appreciate nature enough?

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Trump Wins the Super Bowls
November 8, 2024

The Collective Consciousness Cycle
November 1, 2024