Trump Wins the Super Bowl

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

Rather than love, than money, than fame, give me truth.
– Henry David Thoreau

THINKING OUT LOUD

Trump Wins the Super Bowl

I needed a unique headline, and that’s what came to mind. It’s “journalism”, ya know.

The reason the Super Bowl came to mind is because of the mind-blowing amount of money that was raised and spent for this presidential election cycle.

The exact figure is incalculable, but the estimate is around $16B. This eclipses the record 2020 spend of about $14B, but what’s really interesting is that 2020 doubled what had been spent in 2016. So basically, our political spending has become enormous relative to history.

The 2024 Super Bowl is estimated to have generated around $650M in advertising. In contrast, it is estimated that this year’s election cycle generated about $10B in advertising.

Given these numbers, we should acknowledge who really won this election: the media companies whose livelihoods come from the advertising they sell.

But all this advertising did not seem to sway voters. Kamala Harris out raised and out spent Donald Trump. Yet she lost. How could she lose with such a giant money advantage?

The surface conclusion is that Harris raised more money than Trump because Democrats have become the party of the rich elite and corporations, while Republicans have become the party of the average individual.

Harris voters likely control a lot more money than Trump voters. So what we can conclude is that today there are a lot more average Americans feeling the need for change than there are elite Americans. The dismal confidence in government and media should have clued us in.

Last week’s essay discussed a transition in our collective consciousness. The country seems to be turning conservative. And the collective consciousness cycle seems to follow the economic experiences of the population.

So was it the economy that moved the middle of the road voters to the Republican side in this election? Let’s ponder…

The Democrat voter point of view seems to have come from their media-driven and -dominated echo chamber, while the Republican voter point of view has likely come from their real life experiences.

Inflation is a good example.

Inflation is merely an irritation to the rich elite, while it has been a day-to-day struggle for the average person. The rich elites don’t feel inflation. The average do.

The rich elites also don’t live in neighborhoods with crime or invaded by illegal immigrants.

The rich can pay higher energy costs for feel-good clean energy, while for the average it’s just another tax.

The rich can afford to hire therapists for their children with drug or mental health issues. The average cannot afford.

The rich can afford to pay $100,000 a year for their children to go to an “elite” university. The average cannot.

The rich are only getting richer as technology allows the investor class to earn more money at the expense of the labor class, workers whose jobs they see as replaceable by cheap global labor, robots and maybe soon AI.

“Progress” today seems to favor the rich, while it puts the average person at risk. Maybe “progress” always favors the rich. And maybe at certain points in time, the average people are pushed to their limits and rise up. This seems to be what populism is all about.

Maybe the result of this election all boils down to Democrats abandoning the average American.

Back in 2020, a lot of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump voters came from the average American class, struggling to make their way economically. Sanders promised voters more government handouts. Trump promised voters he would get the government out of the way of business.

After Sanders dropped out of the 2020 race, most of his voters stayed with the Democrat ticket. But this year, there was no Democrat carrying the ball for average American voters.

The Democrat party isn’t going away. But should our economy continue along the path of rewarding the rich significantly way more than the average person, then populism will only expand its reach across the country. Especially if the Trump administration can make economic life easier for average Americans in his second term.

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

The Fed cuts rate 25 basis points
Labor costs rise more than expected
The future is whose oyster?

For all its flaws
America remains the land of opportunity
And the data supports it
Leaving the rest of the world behind

There’s a big boom in the US.
Construction of manufacturing plants

THE LABOR VIEW

Boeing workers accept deal
A win for blue-collar workers.
While white-collar NYT workers strike

Sam’s Club has a pizza robot.
It makes 100 pizzas an hour

Incentive comp becomes more important
As companies measure worker performance.

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

Political uncertainty in Germany
Post Trump, will Europe be lost?

Britain’s new conservative leader
Pledges to fix their “broken system”

Germany’s economy is on the rocks.
Bosses blame slacker workers

THE GLOBAL GAME

Has India’s stock market peaked?
Global investors are getting out

Birth rates fall across the globe
Will this help climate change?

India is Russia’s #2 supplier
Of restricted technology

THE UKRAINE FIRE

Will Trump lift Russian sanctions?
What will peace negotiations look like?

Ukraine attacks North Korean troops
Can these soldiers even fight?
Russian drones rain terror on civilians
Is Ukraine on the ropes?

Russia to pay North Korea for troops.
$200MM a year, tons of rice, spacetech, and more

THE GAZA FIRE

Netanyahu sacks defense minister
No compromise on the path to victory.

US sends B52 bombers to Middle East
Getting ready for a bigger war?

Iran’s military has been hobbled
But talks big about retaliation

THE SLIPPERY SLOPE

Did Russia try to attack the US?
With incendiary devices on cargo planes?

Trump started the US Space Force
China and Russia may have lapped us

EU and Japan sign security pact
Just in case China goes rogue.

FINANCE

The stock market boom will continue.
Says a record number of Americans

Investors salivate over Trump boom
We shall see what we shall see.

German capital flees Germany
Will global companies rush to the US?

REAL ESTATE

First-time homebuyer age hits record high
Owning a home keeps getting more expensive.
Insurance rates have been surging
As have property taxes

More turmoil in the housing market.
What’s legal when listing a house?

Mortgage rates keep rising
Will it take recession to bring them down?

IS TECH A WRECK?

Is social media evolving?
Reddit is growing faster than ever
Australia plans social media ban
For people under 16 years old

Big tech posted big earnings
But are they caught up in a gold rush?

Do you want more technology?
Then say goodbye to more forests
And a reliable electric grid

THE CHAT ON AI

Nvidia now more valuable than Apple
A tech gold rush economic indicator?

With a new digital AI twin
Deepak Chopra could give advice forever.

Americans don’t like AI
And don’t trust it, big tech or government.

OUR GOOD FRIEND, FAILURE

Incumbents across the globe
Are getting voted out of office

The election polls whiffed
Are they merely echo chambers?

Major news networks flopped.
Election night ratings fell 25%

THE NEXT NORMAL

The wellness market
Is now bigger than the pharma market

New US scripted TV shows fall 24%
While streaming prices soar

50 million Americans
Have no access to local news

THE WAR ON CARBON

Fearing potential wildfires
PG&E cuts power to some customers

Venezuelan oil exports at 4-year high
Oil is more important than mad dictators.

US oil production sets another record
This is one efficient industry!

THE ENERGY TRANSITION

Net zero to cost $75T, says Goldman Sachs
That’s to avoid getting 2 degrees warmer.

California has highest energy prices in US
Their governor wants YOU to bail them out.

Amazon wants to control power.
US regulators say “no dice”

THE EV DREAM—OR DELUSION

BMW profits fall hard
Toyota cuts sales forecasts
Nissan plans 9,000 job cuts
Trump may eliminate EV subsidies
EVs and more are in trouble.

Lucid Motors was once worth $90B
Will it go out of business soon?

THE CHINA SYNDROME

China hacks US communication systems
Are they our friend or enemy?

China stole chip tech
How did it get banned in Western tech?

China wants the rich to pay more taxes
Not gonna find a lot of love here.
Foreclosures in China soar
China announces $1.4T bailout

THE WASHING-TONE

Washington bureaucrats may be in trouble.
Here comes Musk the cost cutter

The Inflation Reduction Act
Could be a looming political earthquake

How to speed up asylum processing.
Take them out of the courts

MAKING A BETTER YOU

Is one meal a day healthy?
Not the diet everyone should be on.

Hoping to get your life sorted out?
You probably never will

The joys of foraging
Good for the body, good for the soul.

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

Don’t mess with this gal.
Florida’s top python hunter

Why harmony with nature is a myth
Come on, man!

Our strange inner experiences
How they influence our world.

THE EXTRAORDINARY

What’s so special about the human brain?
Size has a lot to do with it.

India’s single malt whiskeys
Hold their own against the Scottish

Has there been an increase in natural disasters?
Nope, just an increase in reporting them

MUSIC BOX

RIP, Quincy Jones
A legendary American.
“Billie Jean”
Did Quincy make Michael Jackson?

Hania Rani live from Studio S2
Ethereal and more!!!
The Teskey Brothers

Live at Gum Gully
Souling up the blues!

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

Why Trump Won
The Honestly folks dig in.

The Whole Foods story
Founder John Mackey lays it out.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

The Here trailer is here.
Tom Hanks and Robert Zemeckis’ magic.

Gladiator II trailer.
“Rage is your gift.”

The most curious man in history.
The Leonardo da Vinci trailer

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

Why do we love carbs?
The origins predate agriculture.

Sweet potato risotto
It’s addicting.
The best way to cook a sweet potato

Crispy tender potatoes
Bring them on!

THE RANDOMS

Given the enormous economic and geopolitical stress across the world, Trump may experience that old saying…

Be careful what you wish for because you just might get it.

Now that the election is over, pundits are quick to project what Trump policies will look like. But what he proposed on the campaign trail was to get votes. What really becomes policy may be a little to a lot different.

Life is part what you make of it and part what it makes of you. Free will and chance don’t often share the same agenda.

During Trump’s first term, the out-of-left-field Covid crisis, naturally changed policy and overall policy thinking.

Americans voted in a president who speaks his mind rather than reading off a highly-focus-grouped script.

In Richard Nixon’s concession speech after he lost a very tight and controversial presidential election to John F. Kennedy, Nixon said:

“One of the great features of America is that we have political contests. That they are very hard fought, as this one was hard fought, and once the decision is made, we unite behind the man who is elected,” began Nixon. “I want Senator Kennedy to know, and I want all of you to know, that certainly if this trend does continue and he does become our next president, he will have my wholehearted support and yours as well.”

Is that similar to what we heard from Kamala on Wednesday?

Russia recruits North Koreans, Cubans and Africans to fight in Ukraine. Uh…hey, Europe, what’s your play here? Maybe European bureaucrats are more interested in climate change than evil getting closer to their borders.

One of the biggest losers of Trump getting elected could be Europe. They have not been paying their fair share of NATO for many years. And the war in Ukraine should mostly be their issue to resolve. We can help, but Europe needs to step up and lead.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

The Collective Consciousness Cycle
November 1, 2024

The 30-Year Overnight Success Story
October 25, 2024