Biden’s College Loan Cancellation to Cost $1 Trillion

August 26, 2022

What the wise man does in the beginning,
the fool does in the end.
– Warren Buffett

THOUGHTS FROM DOUG

Can someone please send me the climate science article that predicted severe droughts in 2022? Scientists should know everything, right?

Have we reached peak TV? Have we reached peak social media? I sure hope so. Media is only a derivative of the real. And the media is made by people who seek to make money off and/or control you.

Given the Sri Lanka disaster caused by following green agricultural policies, why is it that the Dutch and Canadian governments want their ag industries to do the same?

Has Twitter been misleading everyone about its operating metrics? If so, some Twitter and former Twitter heads may roll. Elon Musk will certainly not be closing a deal if Twitter’s been lying about its user community. And if it proves true that they’ve been gaming their user numbers, should we wonder about the data that drives Facebook’s and Google’s advertising revenues, profits…and valuations?

Who are the good guys in the world? Who are the bad guys in the world? To the common folk of the world, does it matter?

Do most people in the world even have the time to understand science, politics or the kind of government they have? If there’s enough food on the table and a little “party” to have every now and then, do they care?

You know what new infrastructure construction and new mining to make renewable energy stuff means? It means expanding environmental destruction even more. Get your head around that.

Given the boom in summer vacations, Q3 GDP should theoretically have strong momentum from July and August. So if Q3 GDP comes in negative, we may have something to worry about.

How do you screw up a country? Well if Argentina is any example, you do it by letting the government control too much.

What if the soft landing recession lasts a very long time?

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

Global slowdown is happening
How do we get out of a global recession?

Cell phone buyers hit pause
20MM homeowners late on power bills
The restaurant recovery is retrenching
Vital commodity industries are buckling
Homebuilder orders shrink 60%
New home sales are collapsing
It’s not nice out there for some folks.

America has an office glut
How can the buildings be repurposed?
Here’s an idea
We may also have industrial glut
And potential apartment glut

E-commerce revenue expected to fall
This would be the first year ever.

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN

Rents are at all-time highs
But so is the cost of a house
July rents “only” increased 14%
Ballooning rent yet to show up in inflation
Zillow reduces housing expectations

Cup of Joe about to get more expensive.
Brazil struggles with arabica crop

High crude prices are here to stay
If so, stagflation may be as well.

THE LABOR VIEW

American Opportunity Survey
McKinsey dives deep into the job world.

Quiet quitting has gone global
Work seems to have lost its meaning for many.

Ford to lay off a few thousand
Making EVs requires fewer workers.

US companies reshoring jobs
A record number of jobs are coming home.

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

Europe is in an “impossible situation”
Says ECB President Lagarde.
Germany expects significant inflation
Germany needs an energy Marshall Plan
Yet Europe may be just fine this winter
UK household energy costs to rise 80%

European sovereign debt is not tradable
No ECB safety net makes for uncertainty.

EU energy groups about to surrender
And pay Russia in rubles.

THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION

Australia LNG production to increase
After Shell signs a new labor agreement.

Drought is not good for hydro power
Obviously.
China has to burn more coal
France tweaks water discharge rules
They have a nuclear power problem

Rich countries gobble up fuel.
Leaving poor countries in a big mess

PLAYING WITH FIRE

Here comes the “Kyiv Initiative”
Ukraine and its neighbors come together.

There will be no mediated end to the war
Suggests a Russian diplomat.

Russians line up to steal Western IP
The nationalization of Western assets has begun.

GLOBAL

The world’s manufacturing superpowers since 1990
Great time-series racing bar video.

Vietnam’s economy is growing like wildfire
But it needs better infrastructure.

Pakistan seeks Middle East support
Is their economy in trouble?

A NEW WORLD ORDER?

Russia and Iran in railway talks
Birds of a feather get closer together.

Putin and Xi set to attend G20 meeting
Should we expect geopolitical fireworks?
Israel opposes Iran nuke deal

Why does Europe want it?
Hasn’t Russia-Ukraine taught us anything?

THE FINANCE WORLD

Retailers cut earnings projections
Other industries to follow?
Retailers have WAY too much inventory

China’s biggest Wall Street bull
Just liquidated a bunch of China stocks.

IPO market has virtually disappeared
Liquidity events are hard to come by.
And liquidation advisory comes to SPAC world

Tesla bear makes huge short bet
Thinks Tesla will be squashed like a bug.
Yet Koreans are big-time Tesla investors

TECHNOLOGY

Amazon wants to buy more health care
While they shut down their internal effort
What business is Amazon really in?

Apple to make more products in Vietnam
In India, too

Spyware is a global threat
To human rights and democracy.

THE UNEXPLAINABLE

Methane emissions are soaring
Is it hydrocarbons, or is it something else?

We need more multifamily housing
Yet proponents also cry NIMBY.

Sea turtles return to Mississippi beach
Is climate change the reason?

THE CRYPTO MEME

Because of its decentralization
Regulating crypto may be impossible.

A 30 year old is trying to save crypto
Wunderkind or delusional?

Does crypto have any good use?
Ethereum to significantly reduce carbon footprint
Can you pay your mortgage with crypto?

THE NEXT NORMAL

US life expectancy keeps dropping
Well heck, we aren’t living forever?
Korea also has a demographic problem

Streaming viewership surpasses cable
And soon you may be paying more

Going soft on crime
Is crashing and burning

THE WAR ON CARBON

Japan recommits to nuclear power
They want to build more plants.

The perfect energy storm
Coal use and carbon prices in Europe.

Private jets are a carbon hog
The French government is tired of it.

Is New York headed to a fuel crisis?
They don’t have enough fuel inventory.

THE EV DREAM

Getting a Tesla fixed
Can be a nightmare.

Vietnamese EV maker to build NC plant
VinFast seeks to make autos and buses there.
Here’s the company’s video pitch

EV truck maker Rivian cuts back
The beginning of the end?

THE CHINA SYNDROME

Taiwan eyes large defense budget increase
Bulking up, just in case?

China cutting interest rates
And stimulating with another $44B
As their economy sputters.
They have multiple problems

Jeep pulls out of China
The Communists aren’t friendly.
While HSBC accepts CCP’s influence

THE WASHING-TONE

Fed Chairman remains an inflation hawk
Not good for stock prices and mortgage rates.

Biden unilaterally signs off on student debt forgiveness
Is it even constitutional?
Penn Wharton projects it will cost taxpayers $1 TRILLION
And a Harvard economist thinks it will be inflationary

Biden commits another $3B in Ukraine support
Our weapons and their soldiers. Hmmm…

Biden went to lobby Saudi Arabia
Now the Saudis want higher oil prices

MAKING A BETTER YOU

How to rest well
Highly important to a satisfying life.

The Feynman Technique
Supercharge your learning skills.

Incompetent people are often confident people
They don’t know how incompetent they are.

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

It’s older than Stonehenge
Now visible because of drought.

$21 BILLION dollars
Are lying around in unused gift cards.

Easy last-minute “vacations”
I’m ready to go!
The best Airbnb in every state

SONG OF THE WEEK

Beach Boys, “The Warmth of the Sun”
As summer ends.
Lyrics are poetry, you know.
More Beach Boys, if you get the bug

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

Sharks are affectionate creatures
You won’t believe this video.

The Blonde trailer
Marilyn Monroe, once again.

Netflix documentary, Running With the Devil
John McAfee’s wild ride.

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

“Larry Summers: The High Price of Getting it Right”
Inflation Reduction Act, new McCarthyism, and more on Bari Weiss.

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

Let’s have a spaghetti cook off…
Pomodoro
Bolognese
Carbonara
Basil pesto
Cacio e pepe
Puttanesca
And don’t forget…
Spaghetti pie, oh my.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Is Climate Change Really from Hydrocarbons?
August 19, 2022

What’s an Austerity Hangover?
August 12, 202