August 19, 2022
The market doesn’t want to recognize what happens in the next decade. It is much more interested in what happens in the next two months, three months. It is much more near-term looking. And in the near term, it is betting the Fed will back off.
– Economist Henry Kaufman, who launched the 40-year old bull market
THOUGHTS FROM DOUG
Looks like we’ve entered a new deflationary period…for financial assets.
Investors seem to think lower inflation is good for stocks. But isn’t inflation going to decline because higher interest rates are slowing down the economy? And won’t a slower economy mean lower corporate earnings? So how do lower corporate earnings lead to higher stock prices?
There are winners in every economic environment. Which industries are the winners in an inflationary or stagflationary environment? Which industries will be the winners in a recession? And which industries will be the winners in deglobalization?
If inflation has peaked, then we now know the definition of “transitory” is 16 months.
The process of making a good sausage is always messy. The process of our democracy is always messy, too.
The flow of globalization increased global prosperity, which catalyzed greater global peace. The ebb back toward nationalism will likely lead to greater global geopolitical turmoil. War isn’t coming, it’s already here.
Did you click the link on that story suggesting the earth’s core cycle, not CO2 emissions, is what’s causing temperatures to rise? I’m still waiting to hear about ALL the influences on climate besides carbon emissions. Are CO2 emissions really causation, and the only one? Or are they a correlation? Or does this period in the earth’s core cycle create more carbon?
If you haven’t paid much attention to history, the experience of “drought” has been around since the beginning of humanity. One historical source suggests that megadroughts actually brought about the evolution and spread of homo sapiens. But wait…What caused megadrought before humans were around to influence climate change?
I must be getting old. Isn’t that when things don’t seem to make sense anymore? Are you getting old, too?
“Being a mom is just as important as any career,” said Elon Musk. And then a bunch of folks chastised him for saying this. So what do you think?
Fear not the wind in your face. Embrace it. Enjoy it. That wind will make you stronger.
THE ECONOMIC VIEW
Conference Board leading economic indicator
Falls for fifth month in a row
Mortgage applications at 22-year low
Housing affordability at 3-decade low
Homebuilder sentiment on 8-month decline
If the housing market slumps badly
We will probably be in a recession.
Weak market has sellers cutting prices
THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN
Get ready for fewer children.
Blue jeans and t-shirt prices should rise.
Are companies taking advantage of inflation?
THE LABOR VIEW
Survey says layoffs are coming
50% of US companies are preparing to ax.
Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday
The new in-the-office week.
Reshored US jobs returning from where?
Companies are tracking worker productivity
Technology makes it easier to do so.
MEANWHILE IN EUROPE
Shipping costs may be down.
But European ports lack labor
UK inflation tops 10%
Inflation is a global problem now.
THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION
New pipeline from Spain to France
May be doable in 8 to 9 months.
India doesn’t have enough coal
So they’re buying petcoke from Venezuela.
PLAYING WITH FIRE
Russia has called in the mercenaries
What era of imperialism are we in?
China to join Russia in military drills
Oh me, oh my oh!
Is Russian “expropriation blackmail” coming?
Will they nationalize Western company assets?
Who runs Mexico?
It may be cartels and not the president.
Global population may peak
Later this decade, not later this century.
A NEW WORLD ORDER?
US courts India
Everyone wants to be their friend.
Russia’s trade with Brazil almost doubles
Lots of fertilizer and fuel.
THE FINANCE WORLD
SPAC bubble has burst
Lowest activity in five years.
Stock market thinks the Fed is wrong
What happened to don’t fight the Fed strategy?
A bond strategy unloved for 40 years
Might be making a comeback.
The fundraising market is quite crowded
Buyout is squeezing out growth equity.
Apple’s next big business
Showing ads on your phone.
By the way, hackers are after Apple.
You need to update your Apple devices
THE CRYPTO MEME
Crypto prices are dropping again
Is this a stock market leading indicator?
Losses from crypto hacks surge
Almost $2B so far this year.
Crypto lender about to run out of cash
Celsius could be broke by October.
THE NEXT NORMAL
The California megastorm is coming
Better move out of there soon!
Is Arizona’s new education legislation
Going to work its way across the country?
Play now, make money later
How’s this going to work out for young people?
THE WAR ON CARBON
Sri Lankan farmers struggle to feed themselves
The West’s green policies destroyed a country.
Climate change is not from hydrocarbons
It’s part of earth’s core cycle, says this guy.
Corn-based ethanol is worse than gasoline
For the climate.
THE EV DREAM
Tesla Model Y to be top-selling global car
At least according to CEO Elon Musk.
THE CHINA SYNDROME
US and Taiwan open up trade talks
China’s not going to be happy!
China’s demographics are not good
They spell decline, not domination.
Inflation bill will raise middle class taxes
The IRS will soon be going after small business.
The new climate and tech bills
Increase government’s influence over private markets
MAKING A BETTER YOU
In praise of boredom
We need more in our over-connected world.
How to kick a bad habit
It’s a process, of course.
Money, or enjoying life?
Is how we think about work-life balance changing?
HOW ABOUT A BREAK
Jamie Dimon sounds off
Some of his latest thinking: “Buy Mexico.”
20 lottery winners who lost every penny
Think they learned some lessons?
Lost Egyptian temple
Is found underneath another temple.
SONG OF THE WEEK
VIDEOS OF THE WEEK
World Dog Surfing Championships
‘Cause we gotta just do it, right?
House of the Dragon trailer
GoT prequel starts this Sunday.
Or you could watch She-Hulk
Which Disney premiered yesterday.
CASTING AROUND THE PODS
A classic: Camille Paglia on the Jordan B. Peterson Podcast
The fearless feminist and social critic speaks the unspeakable.
FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN
Who is up for a Spanish dinner party?
Patatas bravas (spicy potatoes)
Gambas al ajillo (garlic shrimp)
Dátiles rellenos (bacon-wrapped dates)
Paella (rice with yammy proteins)
Send me an invite!!!
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
What’s an Austerity Hangover?
August 12, 2022
A Whopper Jobs Report
August 5, 2022
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