What’s an Austerity Hangover?

August 12, 2022
Leyendecker Executive Search

August 12, 2022

Cybercriminals are eating our lunch.
Ex-CISA Chief Chris Krebs

THOUGHTS FROM DOUG

Peak inflation was always going to show up one day, but that’s less important than prices staying high while wages try to catch up.

New defense and trade agreements between countries seem to be showing up all over the place these days. Are countries starting to align in a new world order, with the Western allies against everyone else?

Employment isn’t supposed to boom when the economy is shrinking. That means we have a productivity problem. This means wages have to stop rising or companies will report lower earnings. Or it means prices will keep rising. Or it means layoffs are coming. Or it means the economy is about to boom. What do you think?

To “get out” of economic challenges, countries will surely have to deficit spend. This means already-high debt to GDP ratios in Western countries are likely going to go higher. Is this a problem?

Why do Democrats want to turn Trump into a martyr? Do they not understand the history of what happens when established power seeks to destroy an outsider with many firmly committed followers? The Bible has a couple stories about this.

Human influenced climate change is going to “destroy the planet” if we don’t do something to “save the planet.” These apocalyptic phrases have become quite common in our news over the last few years. But we need to get something clear:

Humans are not going to destroy the planet. The planet was here long before humanity arrived and will be here long after we leave. The planet really doesn’t care about us.

What these constant apocalyptic messages do is destroy the self-worth and sense of hope of humans who hear them every single day, especially our impressionable youth. Climate change fear mongering is unlikely to save the planet, but it may be one reason mental health issues are rising in our youth.

How many countries in the world like Sri Lanka are going to find themselves in economic trouble because they tried to “save the planet”? And as more countries “stumble” following Western “save the planet” policies, is the West going to lose “friends”?

Has the US fallen into a geopolitical and economic trap with China like the Europeans did with Russia?

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

US bankruptcies almost nonexistent
Home prices at record high
The calm before the storm?
Mortgage rates are rising again
As are jobless claims

After jobs boom
Fed governor says rates will keep rising
SF Fed president concurs, even after recent inflation data

What’s an austerity hangover?
Check out these charts

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN

Global supply chain challenges are easing
Inflation “falls” to 8.5%
As inflation expectations decline
While wage growth supports inflation
Wages rise, as do consumer prices
Rents are still exploding
And egg prices are up 47%

Restaurant inflation is soaring
Subway makes a great sandwich!

Consumers opting for cheaper groceries
Are they allocating more money to vacations?

THE LABOR VIEW

Employers will do anything for Gen Z
How’s this going to work out long term?

Retirees may be getting a big raise
Social Security benefits set to rise.
Truck drivers already got a big raise

Worker demand keeps falling
What’s the Fed’s unemployment target?

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

The low Rhine River
Exacerbates Germany’s challenges.
And creates new power problems
Many European rivers are drying up
Italy has hydro problems

NATO spending chart
Who spends what to protect Europe?

China-linked spies hack Europe
Defense and industry groups compromised.

THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION

German chancellor wants new pipeline
A Portugal-to-Germany route for gas.

The West needs Russian titanium
Time to find new sources.

Australia may ban gas exports
If they can’t meet internal storage goals.
They have an LNG problem

PLAYING WITH FIRE

Ukraine attack on Crimea
Former Russian president suggests “judgment day” is coming.

Russia experiences significant casualties
As they search the globe for weapons
As well as global supporters
Iran teaches them to use drones

How Russia is seizing Ukraine’s internet
It started with occupied territories.

GLOBAL

Where indigenous peoples live
In which countries, that is.

Colombia inaugurates a leftist president
Latin American leftists have an economic problem

The coming emerging market debt crisis
What sits behind this door?

A NEW WORLD ORDER?

Turkish banks adopt Russian system
Is a new global order developing?

China works a deal with Mongolia
To facilitate trade with Russia.

India and Indonesia cozying up
Strengthening Indo-Pacific relations.

THE FINANCE WORLD

The big private equity secrets
They don’t want you to know.

Credit tightening is on its way
According to the Senior Loan Officer survey.

Investors are dumping PE and VC funds
Moving out of risky markets.

The Vanguard of hedge funds
Might be on its way.

TECHNOLOGY

Biden signs CHIPS bill
As chip demand weakens
Smartphone demand also slows

Are military AI startups
The new VC darlings?

Amazon to acquire Roomba
Amazon to acquire One Medical
Is Amazon the next GE?

THE CRYPTO MEME

The metaverse real estate boom
Turned into a giant bust.

Coinbase posts big loss
As crypto trading volume declines.

Losing big in the crypto crash
Was a disaster for many.

THE NEXT NORMAL

Long lines back at food banks
As inflation grows.
Poor Americans and food banks struggle

Are more volcanic eruptions coming?
Climate change correlation or causation?

USA is land of the pill junkies
Why do other countries use less?

American pharma spend is huge
Why do other countries spend less?

THE WAR ON CARBON

Asian policies are not aligned
For carbon emissions reductions

Solar panel imports fall
The US enforces a forced labor ban.

After the US made a battery breakthrough
We gave the tech to China.

THE EV DREAM

Ford ups their F-150 Lightning price
Here come the EV price hikes.

EVs are a luxury item
So says The NY Times.

Lithium needed for EV batteries
May get harder to come by.

THE CHINA SYNDROME

Xi is starting to act like Putin
What comes next?

If needed, they will take Taiwan by force
Suggests recent Chinese white paper.

China real estate problem growing
Domestic economy could be challenged.

MAKING A BETTER YOU

A sleep scientist’s tricks
For getting better sleep.

The more you daydream
The more your overall thinking may improve.

The three pillars to happiness
Winning the lottery isn’t one.

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

The 50 best free campsites
Top 20 USA treehouse rentals
Fall is coming, I promise!

Radio actor retires at age 103
She’s finally ready to slow down.

Your brain wakes up a lot at night
And that’s a good thing.

SONG OF THE WEEK

“The Weight
Robbie Robertson with amazing global friends.
Lyrics are poetry, you know.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

The new Predator film trailer.
Prey is a top notch prequel.

Why US bread sucks
We need to fix our bread problem.

The 13 Lives trailer
Ron Howard directs a stellar cast.

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

“The only black senator says ‘stop being pessimistic’”
Bari Weiss interviews Senator Tim Scott.

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

Easy Mexican street tacos
The yummy yummy.

Iced café de olla
A cold brew delight.

10% of Americans don’t eat meat
Vegetables must be getting more tasty.
And more folks are drinking cold coffee

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

A Whopper Jobs Report
August 5, 2022

A Majority Thinks Government is Corrupt
July 29, 2022

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