We’re Just Too Busy

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

Vision without action is merely a dream. Action without vision just passes the time. Vision with action can change the world.
– Joel Arthur Barker Ratcliffe

THINKING OUT LOUD

We’re Just Too Busy

Friends on both sides of the political aisle wonder why so many people fall prey to echo chambers rather than dig a bit deeper to understand our country’s challenges. The answer is pretty simple. Most people just don’t have the time.

When we’re kids, politics are—and should be—the least of our concerns. Our worlds are small and self-centered. We’re thinking about our crush, what’s for dinner, cramming for the test, or navigating all the various social dynamics. We’re definitely not diving deep into politics.

Once in the workforce, we’re thrown into the deep end without knowing how to swim. WTF is a career? WTF is balancing pay with consumption? WTF is just two weeks of vacation a year? Who has time to dive deep on politics when they have to learn how to be an adult?

Eventually, relationships turn into marriages. And that’s more entirely new information that needs processing and behaviors that need adapting. Merging homes. Merging stuff. Merging finances. Merging lives. Who has time to dive deep on politics when you have a new forever roommate to get used to?

And then a kid shows up, and you’re officially overwhelmed. If the demands of work and marriage weren’t enough, now there’s school drop off and pick-up, Little League, music classes, dance lessons, play dates. Then more kids come along, and now you need a bigger car and a bigger house. Then you need more money. So you have to work harder for a promotion. Who has time to dive deep on politics when you can barely survive your days?

God help us when it’s college application time. SAT prep, admissions consultants, college tours, finding the “right” college. But you can’t lapse on the career, and certainly not income. Wouldn’t it be nice if you had time for your marriage, your partner? Or just yourself? Maybe a hobby? What happened to your hobbies? Except that now parents are aging, so the hobbies are going to have to wait. Who has time to dive deep on politics with all these responsibilities and distractions?

What if divorce comes your way? How much more demand does that put on your plate? And then there’s all those single parents who have very limited economic resources and time. Who has time to dive deep on politics when your own life feels so out of control?

Eventually, if we’re lucky, all the kids become self-sufficient. Lo and behold, we finally have some free time. Whew!

Maybe we use some of this time to start paying attention to politics…diving deep, really learning and trying to understand…

WTF?! Have politics always been this much of a disaster?!

No wonder the echo chamber is so appealing. It takes no effort. And you can take the easy out of blaming just one side for the disaster that is politics instead of seeing culpability across the board, including our own side. Politics, government operations, all the influences on economy, all the influences from geopolitics. Who has the time?

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

Sotheby’s earnings plunge
Tiffany is scaling back
The luxury economy is in retreat.
While Walmart earnings surge

Higher rates didn’t derail the economy.
Why? Is there a lag effect?

NYC residents have a problem.
Debt is rising and incomes are falling

INFLATION, DEFLATION, OR BOTH?

China’s steel exports at 8-year high
Will they lead to deflation?

Copper prices are falling
As the global economy slows.

Bumper crops pressure grain prices
Where’s the climate change catastrophe?

THE LABOR VIEW

142,000 jobs created last month
The labor market is soft but not terrible.
US job openings fall to 2021 level
ADP reports declining job growth

Civilian unemployment rate chart
How would you extrapolate this data?
Unemployment map by state

Biden’s immigration policy changes labor force
What are the longer-term repercussions?

Robots don’t require a pension
Dock workers may strike.

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

Eurozone grows less than expected
Time for more rate cuts.

VW may close some German auto plants
Something never done in their 87 years.

Germany’s solar obsession is killing economy
Yet new factory orders exceed expectations

THE GLOBAL GAME

China pledges $50B+ to Africa
Locking up, err, buying allegiances.

Workers lose ground in global output
Is capital at war with labor?

Half a million people leave Maracaibo
Venezuelans want out from under Maduro.
Maduro can survive any US sanctions

THE UKRAINE FIRE

Zelensky shakes up his government
Looking for a war reboot.

Latest missile strike is Russia’s deadliest this year
Are the stakes getting higher?

Poland may shoot down Russian missiles
They feel it’s their duty.
More Iranian missiles headed to Russia

THE GAZA FIRE

Israel designates West Bank a combat zone
The Iran proxy war is far from over.

General strike paralyzes Israel
Do they know a Hamas deal is not a deal?

Biden scolds Netanyahu over hostage deaths
While he is partially to blame for the tragedy

THE SLIPPERY SLOPE

Trump created the U.S. Space Force
Now it’s preparing for the risks of war
Creating satellite jamming devices

US Navy goes all in on Starlink
Musk’s company is better than our military.
And better than Boeing, too

Turkey wants to join BRICS
Playing both sides of the fence.

FINANCE

Investors need to prepare for US recession
Stock market, watch out below!

The private equity boom may be over
40 years of cost of capital declines is over.
Yet PE has $2.6T in dry powder
And the clock is ticking.

Americans are super bullish on stocks
A good sign or a red flag?

Goldman culls their low performers
Now everyone knows they’re low performers.

REAL ESTATE

The housing crisis goes global
It’s just too damn expensive.

Life sciences real estate
Is another over-built market

A $1.5T debt wall is coming
Can commercial real estate scale it?

IS TECH A WRECK?

Tech races to create the AI “Digital God”
Life will be so much easier then, right?

Biden bet big on Intel.
Looks like a losing bet

Singapore police could stop bank transfers
Fighting cybercrime.
Insurance groups want state support

THE CHAT ON AI

Could AI cure cancer?
“Chief” is outperforming doctors

Training AI is unrewarding work
So trainers are outsourcing it to AI

OpenAI started the gold rush.
Now they have serious competition

OUR GOOD FRIEND, FAILURE

75% of violent crime in NYC
Is committed by migrants

NOAA predicted a record hurricane season
Those experts were wrong
Science is not an exact science.

VW adds in-car gaming to vehicles
So you can play GTA while driving.

THE NEXT NORMAL

AI and the future of sex
Oh me, oh my!

The new University of Austin (UATX) opens
Could it be a category killer?

More people are dining solo
Do they know about upside-down pineapples?

THE WAR ON CARBON

US dominates global LNG exports.
But demand from Europe is waning

More cleantech companies are failing
Because they don’t really make money?

Japan goes big on natural gas
They are a practical country.

THE ENERGY TRANSITION

New fish-safe hydropower technology
Could keep more renewables on the grid.

Making small nuclear reactors in gigafactories
An Austin company thinks big.

This company wants to bury your poo
As a way to save the planet.

THE EV DREAM—OR DELUSION

Sweden’s EV champion is stumbling.
So they’re winding down some operations
Volvo ditches EV pledge

Public EV chargers suck
They can’t charge as fast as advertised.

Giant lithium mine has giant protest
We don’t need green cars, we need green plants.
Copper mining brings out the worst in people

THE CHINA SYNDROME

China keeps ramming Philippine ships
What’s the story here?

Is China’s economy in a doom loop?
Like we need another Black Swan.

Japan proposes chip curbs to China
China threatens to retaliate.

THE WASHING-TONE

Biden to block US Steel sale to Nippon
How long before a US Steel bankruptcy?

Nvidia gets DOJ subpoena
Hmmm…

Congress made a boo boo
Millions in tax dollars are lost.

THE ELECTION DISTRACTION

Elon Musk says we need an efficiency commission.
Donald Trump likes the idea
Trump also backs a US sovereign wealth fund
And lower taxes for manufacturers

America’s better days are ahead
Suggests 69% of potential voters

Beijing trolls are using TikTok
To influence the US election.
Russia is also trying to influence election
And Iran is doing same

MAKING A BETTER YOU

The ultimate happiness diet
Don’t click if you prefer sadness.

Does alcohol affect your microbiome?
Research is finally trying to find out.

How to take the high road
When conflict needs patience.

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

You probably know about Stonehenge.
But do you know about Kilmartin Glen?

The Dutch had a redhead festival
How cool is that?

It’s geographically bigger than most all cities.
Except for Houston. What city is it?

MUSIC BOX

Oasis announces a new tour
After 15 years of brotherly war
How about a little “Wonderwall.”
Okay, let’s go “Supersonic.”

Some new jamming jazz jam.
“Seven Year Song” by Rob Finucane.

Mellow me, please.
“After the Storm”
By Mumford & Sons.

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

Lex Fridman interviews Trump
“Life is what you do while you’re waiting to die, so you might as well do a good job.”

The global censorship industrial-complex
Honestly host chats with Matt Taibbi on the state of free speech.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

Here comes that “adorable” ghost.
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Death is hard, but life may be harder.

Gary Oldman is back.
With his Slow Horses rejects.

Angelina Jolie channels Maria Callas
Angelina Jolie plays Angelina Jolie.
While Pachinko mesmerizes.

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

10-minute brown butter sauce
Bring on your pasta!

When and how to season your steak
Before grilling.

How to roast any vegetable
Yum yum yummy!

THE RANDOMS

People’s consumption can fit into two categories: needs and wants. If a recession shows up, spending on wants may fall considerably.

Let me go against the current Washington political narrative. I’m all for the Nippon Steel acquisition of US Steel. Developed countries need a concerted effort to compete with China’s massive steel over capacity. And the US Steel business may not be much more than a surrogate of the US government, you know, sort of like Boeing.

A decade or so ago people were laughing about China-made cars—like a toy maker can make a real car? I wasn’t laughing then, and Western car makers are not laughing today. So if you want a peak at the next market for China to conquer, think passenger airplanes. With Boeing a mess, who do you think the BRICS countries, at minimum, are going to buy from?

And why has the United States lost its competitive edge in the steel business, the auto business and soon maybe the passenger jet business?

Brazil bans X. France arrests Telegram founder. What’s the right balance between free speech and security?

Do we have an interest rate problem, or do we have a problem with not being able to grow our economy without fiscal and/or monetary stimulus?

Because of climate change policies that require the use of LED bulbs instead of the old incandescent bulbs, we may soon not be able to see a dark sky. Yet another confirmation that Newton’s Third Law remains relevant: for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. And what are the unintended consequences to nocturnal animals that will face that much more light pollution?

The older I get and the more experience I get, the easier it is to understand why autocracy has dominated human civilization. The poor thinkers and the easily manipulated seem to way outnumber the smart folk. And the smart folk without principles seem to outnumber the smart folk with them.

Maybe power corrupts because the people who seek it are so easily corruptible.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Is Our Economy Really Working?
August 30, 2024

Who Should Vote?
August 23, 2024