Who Should Vote?

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

The brief span of an individual life is misleading. Each one of us is as old as the entire biological kingdom, and our bloodstreams are tributaries of the great sea of its total memory.
 – J.G. Ballard’s 1962 novel, The Drowned World

THINKING OUT LOUD

Who Should Vote?

All the talk about Biden’s age, Trump’s age and aging out Supreme Court Justices made me remember something I’ve been pondering for many years.

Who should be able to vote?

If we are going to consider things like term and age limits for politicians and Supreme Court Justices, maybe we should also talk about the age at which someone should get the right to vote.

Today’s voters are any and all American citizens 18 years and older.

When adolescence ends and adulthood begins is not fixed, it’s socio-cultural and changes with the times—and research. Recent thinking pins the start of adulthood at around 25. This is thanks to relatively new research that the prefrontal cortex doesn’t reach maturity until our mid 20s.

The prefrontal cortex serves our “executive function.” It influences our brain’s attention regulation, memory processing, response inhibition and—importantly for our conversation—decision-making skills. Not to jump too deep into a rabbit hole of exact science, but the upshot is that, until someone is around 25 years old, his or her brain isn’t fully mature. Should we let people with immature brains vote?

Car rental companies have certainly figured out that people younger than 25 don’t make for ideal customers. You have to be 25 years old to rent a car (or pay a premium to do so, per some companies’ policies). The rate of accidents is high for young drivers and begins to drop off at 25. Car insurance companies have also figured this out, especially for boys. Insurance premiums start out high then drop once someone turns 25.

Maybe the right age to vote should be 25, not 18.

But if an 18 year old can go to war, then shouldn’t they have a say in politics? Absolutely. If you serve in the military, then you should be able to vote prior to 25.

Okay, maybe if you are married with children and under the age of 25, you could vote. One would think, hope, that young married couples with children understand responsibilities. But then again, in some states marriage is legal at 16. Perhaps a married-with-children exception may need some nuance.

As we ponder term limits and age limits for politicians and Supreme Court Justices, maybe we should also ponder the right age for voters, too.

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

China has started a new trade war
Is it their only path to a better economy?

How to fix America.
Great ideas from the Grumpy Economist

GM to cut 1,000 tech jobs
Apple veterans make the call.

INFLATION, DEFLATION OR BOTH?

Iron ore prices are plunging
The world has too much steel capacity.
There’s too much steel in China

“Can’t see the light at the end of the tunnel.”
Chile shuts down its only steel mill

China’s deflation spiral
Will deflation become a global challenge?

THE LABOR VIEW

BLS says job gains way overstated
The last miss like this was in 2009
Remember what was happening in 2009?

CEO pay is 268 times worker pay
They’re worth it, right?

Have we created fewer capable workers?
Evidence suggests maybe so.

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

Germany breaks ground on chip plant
Europe wants its own chips, too.

Europe warms up to Serbia
For several good reasons.

French household gas prices to rise 12+%
Climate change policies create inflation.

THE GLOBAL GAME

What does the future hold for India?
McKinsey gives us its view

China lent money to the third world.
Now one country wants its debts forgiven

Mennonites are headed to the Amazon
Land is cheap and fertile.

THE UKRAINE FIRE

India’s Modi to visit Ukraine.
Could he be the catalyst to peace?

Ukraine hits Russian supply line bridge
And more bridges
What now, Mr. Putin?
Threaten Europe with nukes again?
Mapping Ukraine’s surprise invasion

Ukraine invasion confuses Russians
Now they know how it feels.
While Russian conscripts give up easily
Are Russians turning on Putin?

THE GAZA FIRE

Cease-fire talks continue
And continue and continue and…
Is Hamas even in the dialogue?
It’s not just Israel and Hamas who have a stake

Israel hits Lebanon again
Is this a never-ending war?

THE SLIPPERY SLOPE

Chinese and Philippine ships collide
Tension in disputed waters.

The Pentagon’s Taiwan defense plan
Is to create a drone “hellscape”

Russia-China trade settled in ruble and yuan
Ditching the dollar…some.
China leads effort to ditch the dollar

FINANCE

Global markets are unstable
Suggests Bank of Japan Governor Ueda.

Creditor-on-creditor violence
It’s getting ugly in the PE world.

The Japanese market boom
May have only just started

The relentless rise of PIKs
Suggests private markets are struggling.

REAL ESTATE

New RE commission rules are confusing
Be careful what you agree to.

Ultra-luxury home sales to hit record
The rich are really really really rich.

Mortgage rates are lower.
But so is homebuilder confidence
New home construction is tepid
But July home sales just inched up

INFO TECH

Tech companies fight CA’s AI regulation
The billionaires fight regulation.

We all know tech is an energy hog.
Well, it’s a water hog, too

Start-up failures rise 60%
Unless you’re AI something.

THE CHAT ON AI

Commercializing AI
May be more difficult than we think

The big AI winners
May actually be small businesses

CEOs worry about AI.
473.5% increase in those flagging risks!

When AI trains AI
The results are gibberish

OUR GOOD FRIEND, FAILURE

Why we shouldn’t fear failure
A series from McKinsey.

Harley Davidson drops DEI program
Jack Daniels maker does same
Harley Davidson and Jack Daniels embraced DEI?

Online sports betting is bad for consumers
Well, duh!

THE NEXT NORMAL

Welcome to the modern family.
Not dominated by married households

Burning Man is burned out
Signaling a shift in consciousness?

You’re eating too much cheese
WTF. One more thing to worry about!?!

THE WAR ON CARBON

Zombie oil wells are an environmental risk.
Estimated clean-up is $280B

Green activists
Are not friends of the poor

The major source of US electricity
Comes from natural gas
The only way to satisfy insatiable AI demand

THE ENERGY TRANSITION

US wind power passes coal generation
Is it making electricity more expensive?

China going big on nuclear energy
Is uranium going to get expensive?

The everything green energy
Is losing support, says Pew
Clean fuel projects are collapsing
California power bills are sky high
Expensive energy hits pocketbooks.

THE EV DREAM—OR DELUSION

Ford shrinks their EV roll-out
Who really wants the next Edsel?

EU plans 19% tariffs on Chinese Teslas
China threatens to retaliate.

EV values drop almost 50% in first year
More free government money, please.

THE CHINA SYNDROME

China’s chip imports hit record
What happened to US export controls?
Are chips from China going to Russia?

GM cuts jobs in China
China is done with global car makers
They came but didn’t conquer.

China builds mega O&G platform
Cheap labor still reigns.

THE WASHING-TONE

Government climate policies are failing
What’s the definition of insanity?

Former presidential candidate Marianne Williamson barred from DNC.
Unless she pledged loyalty to Kamala
Democracy at work!

Why is Tulsi Gabbard on a terrorist watch list?
House and Senate members demand answers.

THE ELECTION DISTRACTION

RFK, Jr. suspends campaign, might join the Donald
Now that would be interesting.

Food prices are up 25.8% since 2020
Kamala Harris calls out price gouging!
Home prices are up 30% since 2020
Stick it to those homebuilders, Kamala!
Used car prices are up 37.2% since 2020
Throw those used car folks in jail, please!
Auto insurance is up 36% since 2020
Let the government take over insurance!

MAKING A BETTER YOU

How to stay calm based on the stressor
So, so logical.

Joy is good for your body and mind.
Here’s how to capture it
Humor is key to a long-term relationship

There is a formula for happiness.
But it is highly misunderstood

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

Ocean photographer of the year finals
OMG. Amazing beauty!

The world’s potato center
Is Peru

Would you like to make AI images?
Turn your prompt into an image

PLANNING VACATION?

The oldest restaurant in every state
The best deli in every state
America’s best BBQ cities
Gotta visit some of these!

Skip the airport.
Road trips are a real adventure

MUSIC BOX

“I Put a Spell on You”
1968 Creedence Clearwater Revival.

The original cut, from Screamin’ J. Hawkins in 1956.
On the The Merv Griffin Show

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

Why you don’t want to go viral
A musician tells us why.

A Life Beyond Ego
Eckhart Tolle on dogs.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

Lenny Kravitz’s kid, Zoë
Has audacious new film, Blink Twice.

My fishing guide friend lost his wife.
And then made this soulful video.

The hardest golf course ever
Better get some practice in.

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

Some summer salads…

Caprese salad
Grilled Caesar
Orzo salad
Tomato and watermelon salad
Salmon Cobb salad
Beets with goat cheese and balsamic
Gazpacho salad
Mexican corn salad
Nicoise salad
The ultimate summer salad
Broccoli salad
Pesto pasta salad

THE RANDOMS

A federal judge struck down the FTC’s non-compete ban. The judge said “The role of an administrative agency is to do as told by Congress, not to do what the agency think[s] it should do.” Whoa, buddy!

Let’s not forget that when the Fed lowers interest rates, it will be in response to a slowing economy. Lowered rates may help some, but not unless they can turn the tide of economic momentum from slowing to growing again.

For some reason, economic expansions and economic contractions have a tendency to feed off themselves. 

John Maynard Keynes, the economic genius who first suggested that the government should stimulate during economic contractions, also suggested we raise taxes during economic expansions. Seems we love his policy advice during contractions but pay no attention to it in expansions.

Seems like the new trend from state governments is to ban cell phones in schools. Consensus seems to be building that phones are bad news for kids, still very much developing emotionally and intellectually. Well, too bad for all those kids who were handed phones before this research revealed their dangers.

There’s an old saying in the investing world that “everyone talks their book.” In essence, this means investors talk up their own investments because they are excited about and because their enthusiasm could compel others to follow their path. In which case, new investments into their book would drive up its value, benefiting the investor who “talked their book.” But in the end, everyone’s “book” of investments includes some winners and losers.

Because we have instantaneous communication on a ubiquitous scale, it is much easier not just for investors to talk their book but also for politicians and any and all activists to do so.

So what “news” can we really trust these days if everyone is talking their book?

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

The Two Americas
August 16, 2024

The Next Gold Rush Bust
August 9, 2024