Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View
To be prepared for war is one of the most effective means of preserving peace.
– George Washington
FAVORITE READS OF THE WEEK
You’re NOT ready for the cybercrime future
Wired makes the case.
Does AI make us stupid?
Tyler Cowan says “no.”
THINKING OUT LOUD
The United States Is Not an Empire
Not even close
How many articles have you read over the last few years suggesting that the United States “empire” is wearing thin, and that all empires tend to only last 250 or so years? The point of these essays is to imply that our country is on the edge of extinction.
I beg to differ. The authors of these articles have a premise problem: The United States is not an empire.
Per Google’s AI: “An empire is characterized by its vast territory, centralized power, and control over diverse populations and regions. Other key attributes include a strong military, a dominant culture or ideology, and, often, advanced technology, and a hierarchical social structure.”
Let’s consider each of these…
The United States is a vast territory, compared to many other countries of the world. But it is mostly a vast territory of one contiguous block of land, excepting Hawaii, Alaska and a few tiny islands. OK, in literal terms, we can check this box.
The United States has centralized power at the federal level in Washington, DC. But our Founders deliberately set up offices of centralized state power in every capital to challenge and counterbalance federal power. From there, we have a succession of power centers down to the municipality, expressly to put power as close to citizens as possible. Does this qualify as centralized power? Hardly.
The United States doesn’t control a diverse population. Rather, we have a diverse population composed of people who chose to be here rather than were subjugated and forced to remain here through military aggression.
The United States does not necessarily control diverse regions. To the extent we can say we are a nation that “controls,” our population exists in one region of the world, again, excepting a few overseas territories. The United States does influence diverse regions, but it does not control diverse regions.
The United States does possess a strong military. Check that box.
The United States does not possess a strong culture and ideology. Rather, we are in a constant debate about our culture and ideology.
The United States does possess advanced technology, arguably the most advanced in the world.
Finally, there is no hierarchical social structure in the United States. We have no caste system or codified class system. In the United States, we’re all equal with equal opportunity under the law. From there, it’s up to us to determine our economic potential and success.
By Google’s definition, it is obvious that the United States is not an empire. But Google perhaps missed the most important identifier of empires, which further clarifies that the United States does not qualify: The United States does not go to war to take control over other country’s resources and population.
Empires like the Roman Empire, the British Empire, the Mongol Empire, the Spanish Empire, and the Han Dynasty all assertively grew their empire via war. The United States does not do this.
By great contrast, the United States goes to war to free enslaved or oppressed people—mostly those who are subjugated, led, brainwashed and governed by tyrannical leaders.
The United States did not defeat Germany in WWII and then take control of it, claim its resources and subjugate citizens. The United States did not take control of Japan after WWII and then claim its resources and subjugate citizens. The United States did not take control of the Iraqi oil fields during that conflict nor subjugate its citizens.
The United States does not seek to control countries and people of other parts of the world. It merely seeks to ensure that as many people as possible around the world have freedoms and opportunities to create the best lives they can. While we don’t always get the outcomes we hope for, our intent is never control.
When you read that the American empire is in decline, be skeptical. When you come across arguments comparing our moment to the final days of fallen empires, remember: The United States is no empire. We are something different—something novel the world had never seen at our founding, and something it has yet to see replicated. There is no past corollary, no predictive guide.
In the United States, we created something new and uncharted. We’ve written every chapter in our story as we go. If the past is any guide, then we can still write our own future. Let’s hope it’s one we want.
THE RANDOMS
Free-market thinkers warn that if NYC elects socialist Zohran Mamdani as mayor, it will lead to dark economic and social outcomes for the city. Maybe they should instead cheer Mamdani on so that the world, not just NYC, will learn in real time the toxicity of socialism.
What does the popularity of a socialist in NYC tell us about the average voter?
Modern technology has supposedly created a mental health crisis in our youth. Now they want AI chatbots to help out kids. Will this only exacerbate the mental health crisis?
A couple of good friends recently left their respective encounters with health care with the same takeaway: There is no more “care” in health care. All we patients are is a revenue opportunity.
Trump’s pressure led NATO countries to commit to increasing their military spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. First off, 2035 is ten years from now. A lot can happen in ten years. And let’s not forget that most NATO countries have never contributed what they previously agreed to spend.
The bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities is not likely the end of this conflict. We have not cut the head off the extreme ideological snake.
If I were an Iranian leader and wanted the US and Israel to lose interest in my nuclear program, I would also declare loudly that our facilities were badly damaged.
Does the world really believe a productive peace deal with Iran’s current leadership is doable? Did Neville Chamberlain’s diplomacy stop Hitler?
The Iranian mullahs want to wipe Israel and the Jews off the face of the earth. A few generations ago, we called these people Nazis. And we should know what happens when we appease people like this, right?
Maybe diplomacy is for the weak.
ECONOMIC NEWS
Economy
No rate cut this month
Durable goods orders grow
How about a $30 minimum wage?
Autos have become too expensive
Liability insurance could become unaffordable
Labor
Build yourself an AI career coach
AI is making hiring harder
Who is ready for AI job interviews?
We need more factory workers
The Lone Star
Where cultural diversity is a point of pride
Austin has a new Balloon Museum
Texas wants to draw in more film production
BUSINESS
Finance
Investors flee long-term US bonds
Fed to reduce bank capital requirements
Goldman launches AI assistant firm wide
He’s beaten the S&P for 50 years
Private equity has peaked
Real Estate
US new home sales keep slumping
Blackstone keeps buying real estate loans
Luxury apartments are hurting low-end renters
A number of homeowners are underwater
Commercial real estate distress spreads
Tech
Nvidia enters big tech’s turf
China unveils mosquito-sized drone
16 billion passwords have been exposed
Mum’s the word on AI’s true energy needs
AI
The AI emperor has no clothes
Will AI kill the consulting industry?
An AI hackbot is flushing out hackers
More AI tools threaten blackmail if you disagree with it
Energy Transition
Renewables aren’t denting global gas demand
New York wants to build a nuclear plant
The US sits on billions of untapped oil
A revolutionary battery, from the US
THE NATION
The Washing-Tone
Big consulting firms have yet another problem
SCOTUS’s decisions this year
SCOTUS takes another states’ rights position
21 states demand their free taxpayer money
Pelosi is “smarter” than hedge funds
Tariffs
China rare earths deal looks real
US exports tumble 5.2%
UK to buy US-made, nuclear-ready F-35s
Has Trump outsmarted everyone with tariffs?
Social Trends
Harvard goes looking for free money
Student loan delinquencies hit record
How about we institutionalize childcare?
Can anything become a museum?
GEOPOLITICS
Global
Christians are being slaughtered in Nigeria
Venezuela cracks down on its black market
Gold is global reserve asset after dollar
Europe
The end of German complacency
Europe is caving to Trump’s spending demands
Spain’s PM embroiled in massive corruption scandal
Steelmaker backs away from going green
Ukraine
Is Russia headed to a banking crisis?
China-Russia ties are deepening
North Korea sending more troops in
Ukraine’s $43B war chest
The Iran War
Iran is back online, for now
Trump shames Iran and Israel into a ceasefire
Has Iran hidden lots of uranium?
Rubio says Iran’s nuclear capacity was eliminated
Trump lets Iran sell oil to China
Middle East
Abraham Accords gaining momentum
Syrian suicide bomber kills 20
Israel pounds the Houthis again
Is the Middle East the next hot tourist spot?
China
China’s Gen Z turns to tarot reading
China is eating its tiny neighbor, Bhutan
China has world’s largest offshore fracking vessel
War Creep
First came drones, now comes the drone zapper
Japan test fires surface-to-ship missile
China is hacking Russia
Sci-fi dreams are coming to life
MAKING A BETTER YOU
Mind
Get more quiet time.
Tapping can help mental stress
A Roman lesson: the dangers of luxury
How to hone your “visual literacy”
Body
Get more outside time.
Beginners guide to trail running
Are you getting enough protein?
Stop feeling bad about your eating habits
FUN STUFF
Let your hair down, baby! Even if you’re all alone.
The Extraordinary
New cancer blood test looks promising
New diabetes therapy is also promising
Images of the Sculptor Galaxy
Music That Found Us
Bobby Sherman, RIP
“Easy Come, Easy Go”
“Julie Do You Love Me”
10 minutes with superstar pianist Yuja Wang
Bruce Springsteen just released 7 new albums.
“Blind Spot”
“Faithless”
Worth a Watch
F1 is not a sequel, prequel or spinoff.
Bruce Springsteen Inside Tracks II: The Lost Albums
Rutger Hauer documentary, Like Tears in the Rain.
It’s Vacation Time
The last word in luxury, a shepherd’s hut
Check out Glass Beach in California
The world’s weirdest museums
The Yum Yums
Summer berry trifle
No cook recipes for when it’s hot
Have you tried American sake?
How about some ice cream bread?
PARTING THOUGHTS
The best hires are hard workers with worthwhile ideas and impeccable integrity.
– Yours Truly
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
The Consequences of Consequences
June 20, 205
Headhunter’s Secrets: How Productive Hiring Works
June 17, 2025
Which End Is Up?
June 13, 2025
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