The Consequences of Consequences

June 20, 2025

Doug Leyendecker

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

If you need 10 of something, make 30. Then pick the best.
– Rick Rubin on creating anything great

FAVORITE READS OF THE WEEK

Juneteenth is Our Second Independence Day
From Condoleezza Rice.

Animals Taught Us Culture
From archeologist and anthropologist, Sarah Newman.

FAVORITE VIDEO OF THE WEEK

Improving Science and Restoring Trust in Public Health
Andrew Huberman talks with new NIH Director Dr. Jay Bhattacharya

THINKING OUT LOUD

The Consequences of Consequences
Newton’s Third Law

Last week, a good friend sent me the following essay about our global fertility crisis:

The Global Fertility Crisis Is Worse Than You Think

Several such articles have been written in recent years. But this article’s author, Roger Pielke, projects the current fertility trend line all the way to the year 2500—when, per this projection, there might only be 10 million humans left on earth.

To project anything to 2500 is foolish, but the essay got me thinking about what’s behind today’s fertility crisis and how it could play out.

End-of-world narratives, particularly climate change hysteria, have likely been a big influence on fertility decline in the Western “educated” world. We’ve scared people into not wanting to destroy the earth, so don’t have children. We certainly don’t want to add more earth parasites! Or the earth will soon turn into an uninhabitable hellscape. To bring children into a guaranteed doomsday is cruel, so don’t have children.

The exploding cost of living compared to the relatively flat wages is also likely a driver of infertility. As I suggested in a previous newsletter ’s Randoms, since 1975, real median income in the US increased 50% while the cost of living increased 461%. It’s only natural people would fear they can’t afford children.

The push toward casual sex and dating and delayed marriage, or no marriage, has surely been another driver of infertility. Fewer traditional relationships, fewer children.

Perhaps the decline of religion, which has contributed to the decline of community, has also depressed fertility. When there’s less community, there’s less security. When there’s less security, there’s less motivation to have children.

Surely technology has also played a role, as it’s turned many people away from interacting with real humans and toward interacting with phones, video games, and the internet. “Modern” technology has created a loneliness crisis. It’s also created a mental health crisis. These are not circumstances that inspire people to have children.

Then there’s what social media has done, particularly to younger generations who look to social media for a benchmark as to how they should live. No surprise, FOMO-driven consumption and an obsession with portraying a certain life online occupies many people’s minds and priorities.

New tech has also pushed us into a sort of selfie mass psychosis. It has turned tons of people into narcissists. Narcissists likely don’t want or need children.

Finally, in recent years, there’s been a movement to demonize children as freedom and fun killers. Motherhood has been couched in terms of the “patriarchy” winning its war over women and robbing them of retaining agency over their lives. Who wants to have kids if they’re such a drag and so anti-feminist?

But there is hope.

What Pielke and others who write about various end-of-the-world scenarios fail to take into account is the concept of homeostasis. In this case, I mean a sort of social consciousness homeostasis.

As most friends and regular readers know, I’m a big fan of Newton’s Third Law: For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.

Today, we’re experiencing the consequences of decades of endless technologies, big and small, proliferating across and infusing themselves into every facet of our lives. And since the 1960s, we’ve witnessed progressive values, big and small, proliferate across and infuse themselves into every facet of our lives. One might even suggest that, for several decades, the US has been experiencing the consequences of extreme prosperity.

“Tomorrow” we will experience the consequences of today’s consequences.

We’re already starting to see the consequences of the significant fall in the public’s confidence in education, government, media and health care. It would not surprise me if, 50 years from now, birth rates have quickly rebounded as we move from an era of fear to an era of action.

Everything runs in cycles. There is no normal. There is just constant change.

Trends emerge and expand until they reach a point of diminishing returns. When something reaches a point of diminishing returns, then humanity changes course. There are always consequences to consequences. The fertility crisis may persist for another decade or so. But at some point, odds seem good that humanity will go back to valuing being human again.

THE RANDOMS

Speaking of the consequences of consequences…Ponder the influence of the trillions of free money doled out in response to the Covid crisis. Has the trickle down and multiplier effect of that free money pushed European tourism to the brink of exhaustion?

The Israeli attack on Iran reminds me of an old thought: Diplomacy is the effort that allows bad actors to keep acting badly. Action speaks louder than words. Now is Israel going to cut the head off the snake, or is the world going to push it to kick that can down the road yet again?

Are we at a moment with Iran similar to the moment when we bombed the Japanese at Hiroshima and Nagasaki? (Not good, but necessary?) The casualties would be extremely limited in Iran compared to Japan, but the geopolitical result could be the same. We could finally end Iran’s autocratic and fanatical Islamist leadership.

If you haven’t noticed, Iran’s actions over the last few decades can be summed up in one conclusion: They always lie.

Solar companies are going bankrupt, and the media is blaming Republicans—who just came into power six months ago. These solar companies’ problems long predated Trump’s election. Ah, but the media loves a scapegoat, bonus when that scapegoat can be Trump.

An investor friend of mine said last week, “I’m perfectly comfortable admitting that my crystal ball is currently in the shop, right next to everyone else’s.”

Why are so many AI leaders projecting a jobs collapse but yet still chasing their billions of dollars dreams?

What does it tell us that, a few years ago, Meta went all in on the Metaverse that never happened, and now they are going all in on AI?

Why does it seem that the consequences of today’s abundant “intelligence” is making truth harder to find?

ECONOMIC NEWS

Economy

Fed sees slower growth and higher inflation
Housing starts at 5-year low
Retail sales are declining
Industrial production declines, but tech is growing
US vacation travel is subsiding
Consumers are less worried about tariffs

Labor

Many workers depend on a side hustle
America’s biggest companies are cutting jobs
“Tear the paper ceiling” pledge to improve hiring
Leadership is the scarcest resource

The Lone Star

Austin’s Green Corridor ready for Mexico deal
Houston leads nation in office use recovery
The new tallest building in Texas
Buc-ee’s makes the New York Times!
George Soros takes on Texas

BUSINESS

Finance