The Era of Super Abundance

September 30, 2022
Leyendecker Executive Search

September 30, 2022

Inequality is the midwife of progress.
Marian Tupy

THOUGHTS FROM DOUG

Inflation’s peak may be behind us for now, but the trough of recession is likely in our future.

Here comes the earnings recession. Apple was downgraded. Meta is cutting jobs. Nike has too much inventory.

Italy’s new Prime Minister Girogia Meloni talks about saving country, religion and the family. Who knew that was what we now call hard right fascism?

Our current economic environment reminds me of the domestic energy industry’s 2015-to-2020 experience: Volatility lowers valuations.

A rolling loan gathers no loss. It looks like banks are “evergreening” their portfolios. Will banks be so accommodating in a rapidly-rising-rates environment?

Will reconstruction from hurricane Ian’s damage prove inflationary as money passes from insurance companies into the real economy?

Did you know both Russia and China had social media campaigns designed to influence US citizens? Meta has shut a couple down, but more are likely out there doing what they can to disinform, divide and brainwash our citizens. It’s just a new form of warfare.

Everyone seems worried about the dollar’s rising strength. It’s not good for emerging markets.  It’s not good for US companies with global operations. It’s not good for Europe. Soon we could read that it’ll probably cause more climate change. But here’s the question to ask:  If globalization is unraveling, which country in the world will have the strongest economy?

Imagine what inflation would be if China’s economy wasn’t stumbling like it is today.

If stocks are down and if housing values decline, what will that mean to US savings? And US consumption? The wealth effect works both ways.

I wonder why words like “drought” and “flood” have been around for thousands of years.

When the Ukraine war eventually ends, who is going to pay to rebuild their country?

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

30-year mortgage rates from the Fed
They’re now as high as 2007
Here’s how much less house you can buy

Consumer sentiment has improved somewhat
But it still sucks big time.
While consumer spending keeps rising

Factory jobs are booming
A new American Renaissance?

Americans have lost $9T of wealth
This year so far.

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN

Europe’s  inflation hits 10%
We live in an interconnected world.

Many higher prices…tend to be sticky
The Commodity Price Index is falling
Lumber prices now at pre-Covid level
Cotton prices are also falling
Rents are finally falling
But they are still an inflation influence

The Fed isn’t being aggressive enough
Suggests economist Larry Summers.

THE LABOR VIEW

Jobless claims hit 5-month low
Yet cracks in the labor market
Are starting to appear.

Gig work is thriving
Maybe people don’t like full-time work.

WFH changed where people live.
This interesting map shows the migration

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

The French are protesting
Are they set to have an Italian experience?

The UK economy
Is trading like an emerging market now.
It’s a giant mess today
Bank of England steps in with support

Europeans asked to cut gas use by 15%
Preparing for winter.

Europe faces a dementia problem
Don’t they already have one?

THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION

The loss of Nord Stream
Makes Europe’s situation worse.
Everything points to Russia doing it

Europe is begging to buy coal
And they are paying premium prices.

US electric bills about to soar
We like subsidizing the Europeans.

PLAYING WITH FIRE

Putin annexed part of Ukraine
Can we annex part of Mexico?

The best weapon Russia has
Seems to be Iranian drones.

Russian soldiers’ conversations recorded
They are not feeling good in Ukraine.

The Russians are leaving in droves
The great retreat is on—from Russia, that is.

GLOBAL

A stronger dollar is not good
For global economies.
Developing nations in trouble

IMF payments at record high
Economies are stumbling badly.

50MM people are in “modern slavery”
According to a UN report.

A NEW WORLD ORDER?

EU losing influence in South America
Environmental agenda getting in the way.

US to build nuclear subs for Australia
The like-minded get closer together.

Israel to sell air defense system to UAE
Israel gets more friendly with former foes.
While Iran has a new drone
That can hit Tel Aviv.

THE FINANCE WORLD

ESG investing is a sham
Suggests a NYTimes oped.

Corporate earnings decline just kicked off
The E in PE is going down.

Citi to dramatically slash lending
To buyout funds.

Pensions are bracing for PE losses
Returns are looking grim.
They’ve got fixed income losses, too

TECHNOLOGY

The wonderful iPhone 14
Will be made in India, not China
While overall iPhone demand falters

Is Silicon Valley
Ready to replace farm worker jobs?

Data centers
Are an environmental problem

THE CRYPTO MEME

The crypto world is full of hackers
Anyone stealing your money from a bank?

Billionaire seeks distressed miners
Looks to buy mining equipment on the cheap.

Celsius owes customers $4.7B
So their CEO resigned.

THE NEXT NORMAL

Hospitals are creating new ERs
To focus on our growing mental health problems.

Retailers are locking up merchandise
To prevent more shoplifting.
Which isn’t really illegal in California

There’s a US teacher shortage brewing
Maybe they’re tired of teaching CRT.

THE WAR ON CARBON

A rare triple La Niña
May mean more droughts and floods.

Climate activists
Want to take over the IMF and World Bank

Solar storms destroyed satellites
Any chance they could influence climate?

THE EV DREAM

“Korea, Inc.” can win big
With the Inflation Reduction Act.

EVs are not the future in China
They are the present.

Recycling EV batteries still an unknown
But folks hope to make big bucks doing it.

THE CHINA SYNDROME

China tells the UN
Taiwan belongs to us.

Belt and Road policy goes bust
Countries aren’t paying China back.

Chinese metals trader goes bust
Will the government bail them out?
The bust ripples through Swiss company

THE WASHING-TONE

The CIA has a new museum
And a podcast
What secrets are they telling?

Hey Washington, we may have a big problem.
Russian and Chinese navy ships caught sailing in formation

EPA to use racial justice in rule making
Bureaucratic overreach?

MAKING A BETTER YOU

How to have fun again
Get your silly out!

Nature can nurture your mind
One-hour walks reduce brain stress.

Laughter is vital
To keeping our minds and lives elastic.

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

Get paid $15,000
To move to this Italian island.

Cost of a retirement home in Europe
Get your plane tickets now!!!

Ocean waves are quite amazing
These photos show their beauty.

SONG OF THE WEEK

“Redemption Song”
Bob Marley cleanses the soul.
Lyrics are poetry, you know.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

Video of DART striking the meteor
NASA had a camera on it.

Albert Pujols rips #700
That’s a lot of home runs!

Pass the wine, please
A crazy Rube Goldberg machine.

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

Super Abundance
Jordan Peterson talks to the authors of this amazing book

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

The world’s most nutritious foods
No breakfast jack or jack tacos?

The best new American chefs
From Food & Wine.

Americans have lost an appetite for plant-based “meat”
I never got it myself.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

The Great Leap Backward
September 23, 2022

China Preparing to Go It Alone
September 16, 2022

© 2022 Leyendecker. All rights reserved