September 16, 2022
Politics is more difficult than physics.
– Albert Einstein
THOUGHTS FROM DOUG
Volatility lowers valuations. Ask oil and gas companies about their 2015 to 2020 experience.
Sure seems like Europe will soon be nationalizing their electricity companies, maybe even all their energy companies.
I attended an energy technology conference this week. It was focused on renewables, energy transition, decarbonization, hydrogen, and the future of energy. A great many people were there. But unlike the tech conferences on the West Coast or conferences in Austin, where the dress is casual, this conference’s attendees were still wearing the same old “uniform.” If we’re going to get serious about new energy, maybe we should stop wearing long sleeve shirts, suits and sport coats when it’s 90 degrees or hotter in Houston.
Legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller suggests the stock market may be flat for an entire decade. Wow. But flat from what level, Stanley?
I’m starting to wonder if government climate policies are going to kill more people and destroy more economies than actual climate change will. Hmmm…
About $8T of “wealth” has evaporated in the stock market. The housing market is now starting to turn down. So much for those excess savings. US household wealth is falling, while a recession seems around the corner.
The latest inflation report conclusion: The higher US dollar lowered global commodity prices. The lag in US real estate inflation is catching up. Food prices are skyrocketing. Watch out if oil starts rising again.
The IEA says the number of clean energy jobs exceeds that of fossil fuel jobs. But they count EV production as clean energy jobs while they don’t count ICE vehicle production or car mechanic jobs in the fossil fuel number. Is their data real or more fake facts from our “establishment” institutions?
Some of the best investment and new business opportunities in the world come during a recession. As the old saying goes, Buy when there is blood in the street. Institutional investors understand this. Today they are still quite open-minded about backing new investment managers.
The news media loves narratives that have no resolution. Let’s call it soap opera news. That’s why topics like climate change are so popular in the news. The climate is and always will be changing. Nothing sells advertising better than an end-of-the-world narrative…that has no end.
By the way, this is what “journalism” is all about today.
The larger and more complex a system gets, the more systemic risk builds. Covid and Ukraine suggest our complex, globalized economy created risks we hadn’t considered.
THE ECONOMIC VIEW
The FedEx earnings barometer
Suggests global recession may be forthcoming.
THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN
Supply chain is a daily challenge
Says GE CEO.
Weather is still causing food issues
Can the Fed fix the weather?
THE LABOR VIEW
Workers are striking more
Will a recession change this trend?
MEANWHILE IN EUROPE
Europe has a teacher shortage
Who wants to babysit spoiled brats?
THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION
Europe wants to control energy markets
Energy nationalization may be coming.
PLAYING WITH FIRE
Germany nationalizes Russian refineries
Nationalizing assets, a new trend?
Arming Ukraine is morally acceptable
Says Pope Francis.
India overtakes the UK
As the world’s fifth largest economy.
India’s first chip plant
Will get Foxconn financial support.
Drought in East Africa
Could create a bad famine.
THE FINANCE WORLD
Quantitative tightening threatens bond liquidity
Central banks are walking on thin ice.
CIO of world’s largest hedge fund
Thinks we’re in a giant investment bubble
It’s been a stock picker’s year
Are index funds over?
Memory chip demand is collapsing
Falls 24.7% in South Korea.
MIT researchers build portable desalinator
Could this be huge?
THE CRYPTO MEME
Ethereum announces The Merge
Now it’s simple to understand, right?
It’s been a bad year for crypto
It’s been worse for crypto miners
Crypto’s core values
Are running head first into reality.
THE NEXT NORMAL
CA’s Governor Newsom signs social media law
Guess who’s running for president in 2024?
College grads marry other grads
And then make more money.
The cost of streaming
Has surpassed the cost of cable
THE WAR ON CARBON
Breaking physics and economics ain’t good
Disaster is coming, suggests this author.
Coal is booming in China
Why won’t they listen to the West?
THE EV DREAM
US has copper for 275MM EVs
But the Apaches say, no mining here.
Cash pours into EV battery recycling
Can they do it net-zero?
Tesla’s lithium refining dream
Bring it to the USA.
THE CHINA SYNDROME
Senate approves $6.5B to fund weapons for Taiwan
You think China will be happy?
China bailing out property developers
Government buying their bad assets.
China preparing to go it alone
Without Western influence.
New Biden order
To block Chinese investment in US tech
Federal workers may not get fired
For poor performance.
MAKING A BETTER YOU
A global look at wealth and happiness
See how they correlate across the globe.
Reasons to be cheerful
It improves your world.
The “joy workout”
Eight-and-a-half minutes is all it takes.
HOW ABOUT A BREAK
Small, charming Italian towns
Worthy of a vacation.
Which US states are getting younger?
They have the economic advantage.
The story of two cats (with lots of photos)
Relentlessly trying to get into an art museum.
SONG OF THE WEEK
Juilliard Jazz Ensemble
In a Tiny Desk concert.
VIDEOS OF THE WEEK
Burning Man 2022 Highlights
Decadence, hedonism, the next reality?
World Champion of Magic
Shows his card tricks.
Glass Onion trailer is out
The next Knives Out movie.
CASTING AROUND THE PODS
Is freedom good for us?
Professor Patrick Deneen and journalist Bret Stephens discuss with Bari Weiss.
FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN
Loaded baked potato soup
Here comes fall!
The next fast food trends
Can be found in Bakersfield, CA.
Before coffee became our morning go-to
People drank alcohol for breakfast
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
Democracy Is Now in Decline
September 9, 2022
Are We Heading into a Chip War?
September 2, 2022
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