September 9, 2022
It has always been easy to hate and destroy.
To build and to cherish is much more difficult.
– Queen Elizabeth, RIP
THOUGHTS FROM DOUG
As US interest rates rise, the dollar grows stronger. Since global commodities are traded in dollars, the stronger the dollar, the more commodities you can buy with each dollar. This lowers the price of commodities. You think this is the Fed’s way of tackling inflation?
I expect most of you saw the recent news about enormous student learning loss caused by pandemic shutdowns. Maybe what’s “lacking in schools” has nothing to do with school and everything to do with the breakdown of the traditional nuclear family.
Whenever you see a new policy come out of Washington, it’s probably a good thing to ask: What are the unintended consequences going to be?
The stock market sure seems like it wants to hear some good news. Wanting to hear good news is probably not the sign of a new bull market. Expecting to hear more bad news is probably the more accurate sign of the next bull market starting.
Let’s say Europe and/or the US grow offshore wind generation measurably over the next decade or two. If so, and for some reason war breaks out, how difficult will it be for our enemies to knock out those wind turbines and undersea transmission cables?
The global economy is stumbling badly while most global central banks are raising interest rates because of inflation. How are higher interest rates going to fix an economic slow down?
Electricity costs are exploding while renewables like wind and solar make the electric grid infrastructure fragile. Fragility decreases reliability. To “solve” this problem, EV owners may eventually be told when they can and cannot charge their vehicles.
It appears wage growth is going to be highest for lower-paid jobs. This suggests that all manner of service prices are going to keep rising. Sounds like there’s going to be a lot more cooking at home.
I was wondering the other day when dogs and cats will begin to decide that their “assigned” gender roles are all messed up.
THE ECONOMIC VIEW
China’s exports are sputtering
When China slows, the world slows.
Consumer sentiment is terrible
Worse than during Covid lockdown.
Homes sold for below their list price
For the first time since March 2021.
A real estate crash
Seems headed for San Francisco.
THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN
Industrial metals prices are melting
Investors sense a recession.
Ocean shipping rates plunge 60%
No Labor Day auto deals this year
Will we always pay list price from now on?
The costs to grow food in the US
THE LABOR VIEW
Gallup looks at “quiet quitting”
What should the work-life balance be?
Strong wage growth prospects for 5-10 years
So suggests The Conference Board.
But wait, has wage growth stalled?
Workers will return to the office, right?
Data says don’t bank on it
Some Apple workers say no thanks
MEANWHILE IN EUROPE
After Germany’s Russian experience
They seek less dependence on China
Massive bankruptcies may be coming
To the UK, will Europe follow?
Europe may be in deep trouble
Energy’s windfall profits get taxed
May subsidize European energy costs.
Can they pay the $2T in rising costs?
As Russia shuts off Nord Stream gas
And gas prices explode
Here come the street protests
ECB hikes interest rates
Why hike rates when a recession is coming?
THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION
The world is reaching a coal shortage
Drought forces China to burn more coal.
Can Africa grow without fossil fuels?
Africa needs more natural gas
Energy poverty affects hundreds of millions.
China and Philippines talk oil & gas
A joint effort to find more hydrocarbons.
PLAYING WITH FIRE
Russia is losing the war
The economic war, that is.
Mr. Putin is not happy.
He’s threatening the West even more
Russia wants Ukrainians to freeze
As they take big nuclear plant off the grid.
The G7 cap the price of Russian oil
You think Russia will find a work-around?
Global economies are stalling out.
Except for India
India has built an aircraft carrier
Jump on in, the water’s “warming up.”
Iran nuclear deal off the table
According to Israel.
Iran forges ahead with nuke program
A NEW WORLD ORDER?
After years of growth
Democracy is now in decline
North Korea to help Russia
Will send workers to Ukraine.
China, Russia and Iran gang up on US
The supply chain transformation
Is already on its way.
THE FINANCE WORLD
The S&P “10” trade at a 24.7 PE
The S&P “490” trade at a 14.6 PE
Are those 490 stocks undervalued?
Junk bond defaults are rising
Not a good time for high leverage.
A market doomsday scenario
QT will suck liquidity out of the market.
How amazing is the iPhone?
Cool time series on iPhone revenue growth
Tech companies moving out of China
How will China react?
Looking for venture money?
Get ready to lower your valuation
THE CRYPTO MEME
Economist Paul Krugman hates crypto.
Here are some of his crypto quotes
If you’re a crypto investor
You want to avoid this scam
Can quantum computing destroy crypto?
And all things blockchain?
THE NEXT NORMAL
Pot and hallucinogens
Are very popular with young folk
Life post Covid returns to normal, mostly.
Except for people going into the office
Babies do good work in Japan
In nursing homes.
THE WAR ON CARBON
It’s all the steam engine’s fault
Check out this climate graph.
Europe burns wood for energy
And is destroying forests in the process.
Let’s bury carbon in the ground
Not so fast, say farmers and environmentalists.
THE EV DREAM
Chevy’s mainstream EV
Will hit the market soon.
Jeep’s offroad EVs coming soon, too
The US has the nickel needed for EVs
After we dig out 1,000 ft of dirt to get it.
Lithium prices go through the roof
EV prices will have to follow.
Projected EV demand not going to help here
THE CHINA SYNDROME
Visualizing China’s social credit system
They track you…all the time.
China can’t manage Covid well
Travel restrictions grow
Not good for their economy.
China lent money to emerging markets
Now they can’t pay China back.
MAKING A BETTER YOU
Small acts of kindness
Can have an enormous impact
Want a healthier heart?
Then laugh every single day.
The delights of mischief
All work and no fun…
HOW ABOUT A BREAK
What’s it like going on The Joe Rogan Experience?
A former guest gives the scoop.
Here’s the fall foliage prediction map
Best plan your trip now!
The universe has how many galaxies?
Way more than billions and billions.
SONG OF THE WEEK
“Go Your Way”
Robert Plant and Alison Krauss in Austin.
Lyrics are poetry, you know.
VIDEOS OF THE WEEK
Netflix’s Blasted trailer
Bros and UFOs having Norway fun.
Windows 95 launch party
Check out Steve Balmer!
Tim Burton returns with Wednesday
Get his Adams Family take.
CASTING AROUND THE PODS
How to make the world a better place
Jordan Peterson talks with Bjørn Lomborg and Ralph Schoellhammer.
FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN
Steak tips, a Massachusetts speciality
Save this recipe!
The “evocado” is more environmentally friendly
Honey roasted squash with goodies
Sweet and savory yum.
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
Are We Heading into a Chip War?
September 2, 2022
Biden’s College Loan Cancellation to Cost $1 Trillion
August 26, 2022
Just a sample text from heading element.