Born Lucky

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

Tyranny is always better organized than freedom.
– Charles Péguy

THINKING OUT LOUD

Born Lucky

Yep. I was born lucky. So were you. All readers of this newsletter were born lucky. As generalizing and assertive as this statement may be, everyone in the United States was born lucky.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, this country is experiencing some challenges. We still have homeless people. We still have poor people. We still have a mental illness crisis. We still aren’t educating our young folks well enough. And on and on and on.

Listing all of our country’s challenges could easily overwhelm us. In fact, the mental health crisis suggests it already has.

All the more reason to focus on the ways we were born lucky.

Let’s start with the most obvious.

The Founding Fathers of this country created a great system of government. As chaotic as our government seems at times, it has checks and balances to ensure progress. Plenty of people today debate whether we live in a state of progress or not. But one point in time (today, as an example) cannot represent the bigger picture.

Progress happens over decades, not years.

What other country’s government would we prefer to have? China or Russia, where there is no freedom? Europe, where GDP per capita is significantly below the US’s? Latin and South America, where crony democracies keep the haves flush and the have nots full of bread and circuses? How about Africa?

No country in the world has a better system of government. No other country’s government provides as much freedom and economic opportunity as ours does.

Then there’s our citizenry. Nearly all of us are immigrants or have relatives who immigrated here not too long ago because the United States is known the world over as the land of opportunity. People come here to build a better life—and each of us, native born or immigrants, have created the greatest country in history. There is nothing more transformative or valuable to a country than a collective desire to create better, more prosperous lives.

Most of us know our unprecedented freedom and ability to achieve economic prosperity make the US great and us lucky to be in it. But many of us forget what is, perhaps, the ultimate driver of our luck.

Few countries, if any, on this planet possess our natural resource bounty.

We have large forests. We have large quantities of minerals. We have an extraordinary river system that provides us with extremely fertile soil. We have a temperate climate that allows us to farm year round. We have warm weather ports on both our Pacific and Atlantic coasts. These ports allow us to trade with both sides of the world all of the time.

Natural resources are what pulled people here. Natural resources gave our Founding Fathers a foundation to build a new country, and with a better form of government built on a belief in inalienable rights. And the immigrants drawn to this country became natural resources themselves, as they brought with them the American spirit—a deep desire to create a better world.

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, we were all born lucky.

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

Most Americans think we’re in a recession
While economist are convinced of soft landing
Small business optimism at 11-year low
Who do you think will be proven right?

There’s certainly no AI recession.
As Nvidia blows past expectations

Sales are slumping.
For world’s largest food company
And for Target

ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM

Since the pandemic
Federal debt is up 50%

US debt interest payments
Are soaring!

Goldman sees no rate cuts this year
But they fear a federal debt problem

INFLATION, DEFLATION, OR BOTH?

Americans are buying less fast food
It’s just too expensive.

The home insurance crunch.
See what’s happening in your state

Rents remain stubbornly high
Is illegal immigration the culprit?

THE LABOR VIEW

The class of 2024 struggles finding jobs
Is AI already reducing demand for human work?

Disneyland character actors join union
Apple retail workers vote to strike
Penn grad school workers join UAW
The union movement may just be starting.

Liberal arts graduates, please apply
BlackRock COO wants to employ them.

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

European utilities cut renewable targets
They’re just too expensive.

Europe’s bet on green hydrogen
Is full of holes

Ireland wants in on the chip boom.
Apollo and Intel may build a plant

THE GLOBAL GAME

World Economic Forum leader stepping back
Is there a job posting for his replacement?

Mexican drug cartels are thriving
To the detriment of the US.

Iran’s president dies in helicopter crash
Will Khamenei double down?

THE UKRAINE FIRE

Zelensky pleads for more help from the West
Shoot down Russia’s missiles, give us more arms.
Zelensky may have gotten his wish

Russia levels Ukraine’s power industry
They’re now after Ukraine’s 2nd-largest city
And disrupting Ukraine’s Starlink service
Hey, folks, this is a REAL war.

EU considers sanctions on Russian LNG
Sweden wants to ban it totally

THE GAZA FIRE

Some Europeans recognize Palestine
As an independent state.
Israel withdraws envoys from these countries
What does recognition really mean?

Trouble in Israeli war cabinet
Will it change their approach?

ICC wants Netanyahu arrested.
Biden disagrees with their perspective
But France supports ICC

THE SLIPPERY SLOPE

Ready for nuclear weapons in space?
They may be coming soon
Russia has deployed a space weapon

Russia wants to redraw Baltic Sea borders
Oh wait, never mind

Russia uses nuclear tactical drills
To scare Ukraine’s allies.

FINANCE

The stock market boom
May have just begun

Blackstone democratizes equity
PE investors are the good guys!

Wall Street lenders like AI
Is AI the new gold rush?

REAL ESTATE

Home sales are falling
Tough buying conditions these days.

$10B real estate fund teeters
It’s running out of options.

How housing values defy gravity.
NIMBY, WFH and those 3% mortgages

TECHNOLOGY

Is Apple playing catch-up with AI?
Don’t count them out.

Turning electric waste into gold
Is becoming much easier

Windows to become an AI operating system
Open the pod doors, Hal!

THE CHAT ON AI

The AI safety movement is dead
There’s too much money to be made.
OpenAI is not safeguarding humanity
According to a lot of insiders.

China’s AI will have a unique foundation.
It starts with what Xi wants people to think

Amazon is full of AI-written books
Move over, humans.

OUR GOOD FRIEND, FAILURE

College athletes set to rake in millions
How fast will fans lose interest?

Daily weed overtakes daily alcohol use
Jeff Spicoli would be so proud.

“You cannot fight financial self-interest”
Good luck reforming health care.

THE NEXT NORMAL

Some sports are just totally cool.
Like the worm charming championships

Here come the weed drinks
Wine is so old fashioned.

Building embryos is just around the corner
What are the repercussions?

THE WAR ON CARBON

Getting to net zero will now cost 19% more
How much more next year, and the next…
Shell backs away from climate targets

The world’s largest vacuum
Is now sucking carbon out of the air

A yeast-like bacteria in rabbit feces
Could significantly reduce carbon emissions

THE ENERGY TRANSITION

US solar panel making boom is fizzling
Too much global…China…supply.

If the US and EU are true to climate goals
They must purchase Chinese goods

US wind generation drops in 2023
First drop since 1990.

THE EV DREAM

China has a $10K EV for Europe
Will Europe let them in?

Americans need cheap EVs.
They aren’t going to get them

China EV maker does US IPO
And shares rise handsomely.

THE CHINA SYNDROME

China considers 25% tariff on Europe’s autos
Take that, you capitalist pigs!

Taiwan will shut down chip machines
If China invades.

China deflationary headwinds persist
Will they bring global deflation?
China’s industrial profits drop

THE WASHING-TONE

Washington funds anti-US radicals
You read that right.

Time to break up Live Nation-Ticketmaster
Should have done this years ago.

Proposed relaxed capital requirements
Could free up billions in bank capital

THE ELECTION DISTRACTION

Nikki Haley to vote for Trump
Will he be in jail on Election Day?

Why is Biden not credited for a stable economy?
One word: inflation

Trump allies are supposedly scheming
On a giant immigration crackdown
Would this tank the housing market?

MAKING A BETTER YOU

Trying to learn something?
Write it down by hand

Meditative Mind app
The zen is your friend.

Read faster, better and more
Can we read deeper?

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

Microplastics likely in every man’s testicles
We thought you’d want to know.

Checkout charity adds up.
It’s generated millions in charity dollars

Students invent quieter leaf blower
This product can’t come soon enough.

PLANNING VACATION?

The 8 best US swimming holes
Pack your bathing suit!

Going to Italy?
The 25 essential pasta dishes to eat

Our national parks
Have three new long-distance trails

SONG OF THE WEEK

Global radio station of the week…
Santa Monica, CA
Jams from a weather paradise.

Billie Eilish releases a new album.
“Skinny”
What the kids are loving these days, I think.

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

AI’s threat to music and media
Rick Beato and Ted Gioa on AI and media.
Scarlett Johansson understands their view

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
The latest in Mad is just mad.

Stand Up Solutions
A hilarious AI comedy special.

Take Every Wave
The life of surfer Laird Hamilton.

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

Sheet-pan scampi for one
When it’s just you.
More cooking for one

Caramelized onions
Keep them in the fridge.

Cricket protein is coming
I know you can’t wait!
Get your cicada shots here!

THE RANDOMS

The cost of consumer goods may be falling at places like Walmart and Target. But when the cost of auto and home insurance keeps surging, consumers are not likely feeling good about their economic circumstances. Throw in the exploding cost of healthcare, and people naturally wonder how they are going to pay their bills each month.

Considering Western countries’ recent actions and Russia, China, and Iran’s recent actions, how can we not expect a world war? The slippery slope seems to be getting steeper—and remember, it is slippery.

Protectionism is the opposite of reconciliation, the opposite of collaboration and cooperation. It may not be the course of action that supports unfettered global trade, but sometimes it is the best course of action for a particular nation.

Given higher wages, regulation, social safety net costs and energy costs across the West, there has to be protection from the cheaper Chinese alternatives. Right?

And to think, Western companies gave China all their technology in exchange for cheaper stuff and access to China’s one billion plus consumers. 

There are 1 billion people in the developed world who think carbon is going to destroy the earth.  There are 7 billion people in the developing world who want a developed-world lifestyle ASAP. How do you think making energy more expensive is going to work out for everyone?

Practically speaking, it’s easy to do the math. The 7 billion will shift trade away from the 1 billion. Who wins there? China does.

Despite inflation, the US economy is in better shape than all other developed economies. Why? What’s going on here that isn’t going on elsewhere? It could be fiscal stimulus from Biden’s Infrastructure Bill, the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, plus the economic influence of millions of illegal immigrants, plus the current AI investment boom. None of the other developed economies seem to have these influences.

If AI pushes humanity to existential insecurity, will we just turn off electricity to shut it down? Would AI even let us turn off the electricity?

Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average topped 40,000, a historical high. And, according to the Wall Street Journal, investors are striking gold everywhere.

Investing is easy, right?

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

The Wind Is Your Friend
May 17, 2024

The Perfection of Imperfection
May 10, 204