The Wind Is Your Friend

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

I did a lot of math. I made a lot of money, and I gave almost all of it away. That’s the story of my life.
– Jim Simons

THINKING OUT LOUD

The Wind Is Your Friend

Back in 1979, a movie came out that changed the world. If you haven’t seen Breaking Away, or haven’t seen it in decades, then put it on your list. It’s a highly enjoyable and uplifting film. It put actor Dennis Quaid (a Houston native) on the map. And it changed the world.

Breaking Away turned Americans on to bicycle riding and racing. Back in 1979, people rode a bike to school or to a friend’s house. It was just a means of cheap transportation. Today, biking in the US is an over $1B, maybe even a $2B, annual market.

Before Breaking Away, the predominant bicycle in the US had no gears. Ahhh…my old red one-speed only Schwinn. Back then, the hot bikes had banana seats.

After seeing Breaking Away, I went straight out and bought myself one of the classiest bikes available, a French Motobecane. Back then, it was referred to as “a ten speed” because, of course, it had a ten-speed gear mechanism. Man, was it easier to ride uphill. And those “touring bike tires” were made to go fast on the pavement.

I rode my Motobecane for many years, well past the time when innovation was making bikes much, much lighter in weight and faster. I would ride it all over Houston, even rode it to Clear Lake City from my house in the Houston Heights to impress a girl. Aw, shucks!

But it’s this bike and my bike riding experience that taught me a nice lesson. 

Anyone who’s ridden a bike for long distances knows all about the various obstacles in long-distance riding. There are, of course, road conditions. Some are easier. Some are terribly difficult. Then there are those hills, no fun to ride up but certainly fun to ride down. And then there’s the wind.

For many years making a turn into the wind would deflate my spirits. “Oh heck, how long do I have to do this? When can I go with the wind instead?” It wasn’t fun having to pedal harder because the wind was blowing in my face.

But one day—not a special day for anything, just an average day—I thought to myself “Wait a minute, when I have to pedal into the wind, it makes me stronger.”

From that day on, when I turned into the wind, instead of frowning and cursing mother nature, I started to say in a quiet voice “Hello, my friend! Good to see you. Thanks for showing up. And thanks for helping me get stronger!”

Remember, it’s adversity that actually makes us stronger, not the easy ride downhill. Don’t forget to embrace the wind. It is your very good friend!

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

US economy is slowing down
How slow will it go?

The US is having a startup boom
More people want to work for themselves.
The best time to start a company
Is during a recession

Small business sentiment improves
But it is still low.

INFLATION, DEFLATION, OR BOTH?

Used car prices keep falling
Auto insurance costs skyrocket.
As auto insurance profits collapse

Childcare is more expensive than rent
WTF?

Producer prices rise more than expected
While consumer inflation is easing
No Fed action required yet.

THE LABOR VIEW

Labor is getting a smaller share of profits
Why is capital getting paid more?

Survey suggests that workers are happy
Sort of.
Happier workers are 13% more productive
Sort of.

The future of work is offshore
Do US workers still make too much money?

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

Europe’s PIGS were once in the ditch.
Now they are the high fliers

Macron wants bank consolidation
No more national champions?

Can Europe’s economy rival the US’s, ever?
Not anytime soon.

THE GLOBAL GAME

Japan’s economy is shrinking
Inflation hammers consumers.

Argentina’s inflation is cooling
Fourth consecutive monthly drop.

Mexico is a mess.
Their political candidates dance on TikTok

THE UKRAINE FIRE

Blinken visits Ukraine
With a “we got your back” message?
While Russia pours it on
And pours it on

Putin replaces his security chief
But they were fishing buddies!
What’s Putin up to?
Zelensky urges calm

Ukraine bondholders want payment
Who are these guys?

THE GAZA FIRE

Israel takes it to Hamas
It’s not letting up the pressure.
Hamas pivots to guerrilla tactics
Netanyahu not ready for post-war plan
More troops head to Rafah

The UN is a terror organization
Suggests Israel.
UN wants to recognize Palestine
But it’s never been a country.

Biden to release $1B of arms
Devil’s in the details.

THE SLIPPERY SLOPE

The axis of upheaval
US’s enemies try to reorder the world.
The slow spiral toward world war

Putin visits Xi in China
Building their “no limits” partnership.
Russia and China are defenders of stability
Suggests Putin.
China sells record sum of US debt

Putin is planning “physical attacks”
On Western powers, suggest British intel.

FINANCE

The Dow keeps setting records
Time to go all in, right?
Investors are striking gold everywhere

Roaring Kitty is back
Get your meme stocks while they’re hot!

Goldman president worries about debt
Our national debt, that is.

REAL ESTATE

The 2023 winner for new home building permits?
Houston, TX

Is it better to buy or rent?
Here’s your calculator to decide
Construction of rental houses balloons!

Migration in the US.
Which states are adding, which are losing

TECHNOLOGY

Tech needs a lot more energy
Where will it come from?

Big tech builds value
Through a massive number of acquisitions

New assisted-driving technology
May not be so good

THE CHAT ON AI

“Little tech” loses out on AI
The Goliaths dominate.

OpenAI’s chief scientist is leaving
Here are his views on AI

OpenAI releases new ChatGPT
Google releases new AI assistant
Apple may put ChatGPT on phones
Do you know how to use AI?

OUR GOOD FRIEND, FAILURE

Climate change was destroying the Great Salt Lake
Now climate change has filled it back up

Private insurers made big bucks on Medicare.
Not anymore

Have you got a plan
For when the sh*t hits the fan?

THE NEXT NORMAL

Has pro sports viewing topped out?
Gen Z isn’t very interested

AI will find your next date
By dating other AIs.

Global fertility is dropping fast
Japan’s birth rate plunges
South Korean women refusing to have babies
Japan diaper-making company
Shifts production from babies to old folks
How soon until the global population peaks?

THE WAR ON CARBON

Florida deletes climate change from policies
Don’t they know the climate is always changing?

Breathing contributes to climate change
Really, it does, according to this science study.

When companies exercise capital discipline
Lawsuits now call it collusion

THE ENERGY TRANSITION

To be green, the world needs much more…
Platinum
Copper
Rare earth minerals
Uranium
And electricity
We can get all these without pollution, right?

Governments want less natgas use.
Restaurant owners are standing their ground

UK shelves home hydrogen initiative
It’s just too expensive.

THE EV DREAM

While the US market may now be off limits
China can focus on the rest of the world

Carmakers now betting on hybrids
And how will that turn out?

China’s EVs are awesome vehicles
“Western automakers are cooked!”

THE CHINA SYNDROME

Microsoft tells their Chinese staff
You can leave China

With empty buildings everywhere
China’s government will buy apartments

China floods the world with cooking oil
Time to slap some tariffs on them.
Yellen worries about China retaliation

THE WASHING-TONE

Is Biden starting a trade war
With massive tariffs on Chinese goods?
What’s the EU going to do now?
US-China trade has already been shrinking fast
China says US has lost its sanity

Biden signs law banning Russian uranium
Who will replace their supply?

Illegals are landing on California beaches
Necessity is the mother of invention.

THE ELECTION DISTRACTION

Biden and Trump to debate
But not in front of a big audience.

Trump pledges to reduce taxes
Dude, what about our exploding US debt?

Biden wants to ban TikTok.
Young voters don’t like this

MAKING A BETTER YOU

Eat a rainbow of fruits and vegetables.
Here’s what each color does to our body

The secret to a lasting relationship?
Do new things together

Cooking can be a form of therapy
It helps nourish your mind and spirit.

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

The best beers in the world
Is beer the new wine?

The orcas are at it again.
They sink a yacht in Straits of Gibraltar

What can dog intelligence
Tell us about our own intelligence?

MUSIC BOX

Global radio station of the week…

New Zealand country music
Ride ‘em cowboy!

And the Eurovision winner is…
Swiss pop rapper Nemo.
The official music video
The Eurovision performance
New David Bowie, or flash in the pan?

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

Israel’s example for the West
Douglas Murray’s Manhattan Institute speech.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

Megalopolis trailer.
A Coppola masterpiece or dud?

An AI Simpsons of the 1950s
Whoa!

Bathtub Gin
Phish live at the Las Vegas Sphere.
Microdosing paradise?

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

Got yourself some hot honey yet?
It’s the newest new new thing.

King of Carbonara shares his recipe
Watch after eating.

Easy peasy cheesy enchiladas
Comfort TexMex.

THE RANDOMS

Given the recent news that Florida is deleting climate change from policy, I’m wondering if the climate change narrative is starting to unravel.

Unless there’s some kind of massive turnaround, it is starting to look like the US and Europe are going to lose the war in Ukraine. And what would be the repercussions of that?

Another reminder to interest rate watchers: 70% of the US economy comes from service industries. That means the cost of an Uber; the cost of home, auto and medical insurance; and the cost to go out to eat, to a sporting event or a concert are as big or maybe are bigger influences on inflation than the cost of a car, TV set or computer.

Was just thinking yesterday that we all need some kind of training class on how to use AI in our daily lives. It’s already showing up in our search engines and will soon show up on our phones.  Great, so how do we use it, and why do we use it?

The interest cost on our national debt now exceeds our military and Medicare spending.

Historian, author, and Hoover Institute fellow Niall Ferguson coined Ferguson’s Law, which says: “Any great power that spends more on debt service (interest payments on the national debt) than on defense will not stay great for very long.”

There is a simple way for us all to get and stay healthier mentally: Get out in nature as often as you can. And if you can, leave your phone at home.

How about this idea from a friend of mine. One day a week, just one out of seven days, don’t buy anything. Nothing. Keep that cash in your pocket. Keep that credit card in your wallet. For one whole day! Do you think inflation will come down and savings will go up? You think, maybe, you’ll be happier?

Motherhood sucks until you’re a mother.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

The Perfection of Imperfection
May 10, 2024

Just a Pound a Year
May 3, 2024