Will AI Replace McKinsey?

This Week’s Leyendecker View

Impossible is just a big word thrown around by small men who find it easier to live in the world they’ve been given than to explore the power they have to change it.
– Muhammad Ali

A WEEKLY BIG THINK

OpenAI’s founder, Sam Altman, is raising $100MM to fund an iris-scanning technology that will allow users access to a “Worldcoin” system. What is Worldcoin? It’s a universal basic income system that will compensate people for the AI-caused loss of economic viability. What does this tell us about Sam Altman’s view of the future his company is creating?

Universal basic income has been debated for a number of years now. According to a California study from a few years ago, “dependence on welfare ‘causes’ feelings of helplessness and loss of control and lowers self-esteem.” Can we then expect a future marked by an increase in mental health problems? Aren’t we already in a mental health crisis?

Given the drum beat of mental health issues in children, it feels like social media is about to be regulated big time. It’s starting in the states. Montana just banned TikTok.

In its recent Work Trend Index Annual Report, Microsoft outlined the “AI aptitude” skills needed to survive the future.They are: analytical judgment, ability to work flexibility, emotional intelligence, creative evaluation and curiosity.

How many people on earth can develop these skills in the short run, or even in the long run? So what are the rest of us supposed to do?

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

Leading economic indicators decline
For the13th month in a row.

Is a debt hangover coming?
When will low interest rates return?
Consumer debt passes $17T
And pay downs have slowed.

The home improvement boom is over
Consumption shifts to services

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN

Europe struggles with food inflation
What happens if energy costs rise?

Olive oil prices hit 26-year high
What happened 26 years ago?

Self-checkout machines want tips
The gall of those machines!

THE LABOR VIEW

Philosophy majors make big bucks
What? Why? Because they’re smart.

Forget about relocation
Workers are not interested anymore.

The disappearing white-collar jobs
Will they ever come back?

Remote work reduces collaboration
And collaborative innovation
OpenAI CEO says it was a dumb idea
Elon Musk calls it “morally wrong”

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

Macron calls for a green “pause”
Has green gone too far?
EU green agenda gets big pushback

EU plans Black Sea internet cable
Avoiding Russian influence.

Giant commodity trader and miner
To build a giant battery recycling plant.

TALKING GERMAN THIS WEEK

Germany wants to support natgas
That’s a problem with EU bureaucrats.
Germany doubles down on LNG

Germany has big chip plans
Yes, but so do a lot of others.
Global chipmakers head to Japan

For only $54 a month
You can travel anywhere in Germany, anytime.

GLOBAL

Latin America needs more workers
As nearshoring ramps up.

Japan stock index at 33-year high
Their economy is growing again

Thailand heads in new direction
Led by a young Harvard trained leader.
As Turkey election heads to a runoff

PLAYING WITH FIRE

China is trying to broker war’s end
But Ukraine won’t give up territory
And it wants Crimea back
Has Putin been defeated?
What are Putin’s options after defeat?

Russia has record grain harvest in 2022
2023 should be a good one, too.
They are extending Ukraine grain deal

Russia facing giant labor shortage
Too many soldiers, too many dead.

THE NEW COLD WAR

Iran and Russia ink deal
To build rail transport between them.

UAE leader
Courts Russia and China

Who is on Russia’s side?
And who is not?

THE FINANCE WORLD

M&A has been in decline
Will an $18.8B and a $17.5B deal
Jump-start a new cycle?

The Credit Suisse collapse may have legs
The plan to trigger their CDS.

Private credit, the hot asset class
TPG to buy Angelo Gordon
What’s hot today can be…

Trying to raise a PE fund?
Calpers may be interested

REAL ESTATE

The solution to housing affordability
Is smaller homes

Home buyer confidence collapses
Is now a good time to buy?

Return to office has stalled
Chicago has empty office buildings
Distressed office sales grow
Is now the time to buy low?

TECHNOLOGY

Apple is a Chinese company
Oh me, oh my!

Apple can copy your voice
In about 15 minutes.

It’s time to embrace passkeys
Passwords are old school.

THE CHAT ON AI

OpenAI releases ChatGPT app
Get it for your phone!

Will AI become the next McKinsey?
Uh oh!!!

AI can go quite wrong
ChatGPT CEO tells Congress.
As he urges regulation

THE NEXT NORMAL

First, lower-wage workers fled coastal cities
Now college grads are fleeing, too

Fox News takes a poll on guns
Hey politicians, pay attention!

Mobile phones have changed our brains
Do we now have better brains?

THE WAR ON CARBON

Scientists say 1.5-degree temp rise coming soon
Do you really think we’re doomed?

South Africa meets climate goals
By using electricity blackouts.

A green energy backlash
How green is green energy?
It’s apparently still working on being green

THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION

Re-electrifying rural America
$11B from the IRS Act is ready to be invested.

Massive new US nuclear plant is open for business
It can power 1MM homes.

EU to miss green hydrogen targets
They are very far from meeting their ambitions.

THE EV DREAM

Chile increases copper tax
Do we have enough copper?

Musk teases new Tesla products
And decides to start advertising
Is there a problem in EV land?

Will EVs cut carbon emissions?
Maybe not.

THE CHINA SYNDROME

China exerts supreme control of TikTok
According to a former US engineering boss.
Are they trying to destroy our youth?

China’s Belt and Road program
Has been a failure

China youth unemployed tops 20%
It’s no longer a magic kingdom.

THE WASHING-TONE

Missouri Rep introduces reparations bill
Slave descendants are owed a cool $14T.
Black job prospects have never been better

Welfare recipients should work
A Republican ask for the debt agreement.

Biden’s new immigration system
Produces big drop in border traffic
Did sanctuary cities’ pain inspire good policy?

MAKING A BETTER YOU

The sweet songs of birds
Are good for your mental health.

Purpose, preparation and presentation
How to have an effective meeting.

These can be gloomy times.
Here’s how to stay optimistic

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

The Swedish theory of love
Balancing individual and communal needs.

No killer asteroid for next 1,000 years
Yeah, but what about after that?

The baseball cap’s odd history
Where did it really come from?

IT’S VACATION TIME

The bluest water in the US
Take your camera.

Going on a summer road trip?
Here’s some cheap and healthy eats ideas

The world’s most beautiful castles
Oh yeah, count me in.

SONG OF THE WEEK

“Tattoo”
Sweden’s Loreen wins Eurovision.
Lyrics are supposed to be poetry.

So much for that stale, tasteless popcorn.
Here’s a true soul singer…

Dolly Parton: “World on Fire”
Now here’s some timely poetry: lyrics.
Dolly’s inspiration

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

America has bigger problems than wokeness
Peter Thiel lays it all out with Bari Weiss.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1
Cruise Cruise Cruise!

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Ford Ford Ford!

A beer-powered motorcycle
Drinking and driving???

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

The history of Caesar salad
Created in Tijuana, not Rome.

How to up your burger game
Going from good to great!

It’s asparagus season.
Here’s some good recipes

THE RANDOMS

The World Meteorological Association, a UN agency, says we only have 5 years before temperatures surpass a key threshold in being able to mitigate the most dire consequences of climate change. Will someone put a reminder on their calendar about this?

Climate change may destroy human civilization later this century. But what if AI destroys it in the next decade? And we wonder why there’s a worsening mental health crisis. Young Americans are dying at an alarming rate.

Mother’s have a lower labor participation rate than non mothers. Some people are calling that “the motherhood penalty.” Oh, so now we’re suggesting motherhood is a negative thing?

If Russia and Ukraine get to the negotiating table, exactly what does the world think will be concluded? Who gets what territory? Is Russia going to give up Crimea? Is Ukraine going to give up anything?

This may sound like a conspiracy theory, but what prevents countries like China and Russia from manipulating our social media in a way that creates division and mental health problems for our citizens? If I was a bad actor and enemy of the US, I would absolutely be doing it.

We had several reader comments on last week’s federal debt thoughts. It inspired me to do this calculation: There are 22MM millionaires in the US. If each millionaire cut a check for his or her personal per capita federal debt of $100K, we could raise 2.2T. That would knock down today’s federal debt from $32T to $29.8T. Sounds exciting, huh?

Social media benefited the loudest voices and its most frequent users. Who will benefit from AI?

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Can the US Become the Next China?
May 12, 2023

Money Is Moving Out of ESG
May 5, 2023