Why We Fall for “The Narrative”

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

It isn’t what you have, or who you are, or where you are, or what you are doing that makes you happy or unhappy. It is what you think about.
– Dale Carnegie

THINKING OUT LOUD

Why We Fall for “The Narrative”

In last week’s newsletter, I said, “Given that the Democrat party and many in the media had been lying to us about President Biden’s cognitive decline, what else have they been lying to us about?”

After a week of pondering, a more nuanced perspective surfaced.

The teeth gnashing has certainly been loud and incessant since the Biden-Trump debate. Biden’s cognitive and physical decline became obvious, no longer possible to cover up or ignore. Now the Democrats and their media supporters—stunned with polling that indicates Trump just might win—are pressuring Biden to withdraw from the race so they can install someone new to carry the torch of their worldview.

Just a day before the debate, many in the mainstream media told you not to believe your lyin’ eyes—Biden was “sharp as a tack,” at “the best Biden ever”—and “F— you if you can’t handle the truth.” The Official Biden Narrative is unraveling, and those who’ve been pushing it got caught with their hands in the cookie jar.

This isn’t the only Narrative that is unraveling. Consider the Covid lab leak theory—once verboten, lest you want to be called racist or, worse, a Trump fan. Consider the actual efficacy of the Covid vaccine at preventing infection.

Consider the anti-hydrocarbon narrative that has emboldened so many activists. Today, more people are starting to realize our modern world cannot transition overnight to green energy—that’s not even really green.

Consider the transgender narrative. The leading countries of that movement were in Europe, just like with climate change. Now those countries are backtracking in their commitment to the belief that sex is immaterial and changeable and children can choose their gender and must be “gender affirmed,” socially, psychologically, and medically.

Consider the defund the police narrative. It was almost entirely white people who live in safe neighborhoods who called for defunding the police, leaving their more vulnerable neighbors to experience upticks in crime. And then crime seeped into their tony neighborhoods, and many are backtracking.

Consider the systemic racism narrative, which led to the elimination of standardized tests as a higher education entrance tool, depriving bright, low-income kids without opportunities to advance and, hopefully, put themselves on a path to better economic standing. This narrative is also quickly unraveling.

Many more narratives that have been held up as capital “t” Truth—verified fact that if you question makes you a bad, hateful, ignorant person—are unraveling.

Why have so many fallen for false narratives, only to, eventually, see them unravel before our eyes? The answer might be simpler than we think.

It is said that humans today consume more information in one day (one hour maybe?) than prehistoric humans did in their entire lives. Every single piece of information out there is accessible instantaneously. This is unprecedented in human history. So, too, is the ability to talk to (and fight with) most anyone on earth via computers in our pockets.

Our brains have not yet evolved to process this kind of information overload. Nor are we emotionally equipped to handle the onslaught of horrific news and fear-mongering we experience daily.

Fear naturally drives us to seek safety in numbers. To feel safe today, many of us retreat to our tribes. And modern tribes are—in a world where everything has been made political—political. Believing The Narrative of our tribe reaffirms our sense of belonging to it. It makes us feel safe, no matter how illogical the narrative may be, how shallow the sense of safety is or how loose the ties of our tribe may prove to be.

In the end, tribalism and glomming onto The Narrative is the path of least resistance—and understandable amid so much information overload and the stress it causes. But it will always eventually leave us cold and alone, just as the emperor who had no clothes.

Choosing principle over politics is hard. So too is thinking for yourself. But it’s worth it—it keeps your mind’s immune system strong.

So too does watching your media diet. Choose principled journalists (if you can find them), not activist journalists. Even still, everything in moderation.

As science fiction writer Ursula K. Le Guin wrote in her 1974 novel, The Dispossessed: “It’s always easier not to think for oneself. Find a nice safe hierarchy and settle in.”

Maybe all these promoted narratives that are falling apart signal that humans are adapting to information overload. We do constantly evolve, after all. And it’s the reason this newsletter has the “Our Good Friend, Failure” section. The path of progress is littered with failure. This has always been and will always be true—capital “t” Truth.

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

Inflation is cooling
The Fed could drop rates 2%
So suggests a Citibank report.
Major recession indicator is rising

The swimming pool industry is drowning
New pool demand is falling fast.

PepsiCo sounds the alarm.
Sales volume drops by 4%
Gen Z is loading up at warehouse stores
Consumer goods makers lose pricing power

INFLATION, DEFLATION, OR BOTH?

Home insurance rates are surging
Samsung workers on strike
The cost of coffee will keep rising
Singapore’s port is gummed up
Natgas prices about to rise
Prepare to pay for checking accounts
Is inflation about to return?

While deflation probability is rising
For now.

THE LABOR VIEW

American workers quit quitting
Labor is hunkering down.

People are feeling stuck at work
Not great for productivity.
Working women are the most burned out

Workplace attention isn’t great
There are just too many distractions.

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

Europe has a debt problem
Welcome to the club.

Who will pay to fix Britain?
UK finances in terrible shape
Greens win big in the UK

The left saved France from the right.
Fear of Le Pen brought out the vote
And the left wants more free stuff

THE GLOBAL GAME

Japan base pay is rising well
Inflation adjusted, it’s still declining.

Iran votes in a reformist president
And what will he reform?
Oh, he wants a new nuclear deal
A wolf in sheep’s clothing?

Is the UN becoming irrelevant?
Was it ever really relevant?

THE UKRAINE FIRE

Ukraine can use UK missiles
To strike inside Russia.
US F-16s headed to Ukraine
Patriot defense systems, too

Russia bombs a children’s hospital
Russia targets more medical facilities
And maybe plotted to kill NATO chief

Ukraine hits large Russian arms cache
Going toe to toe, blow to blow.
Is Ukraine committing atrocities?

THE GAZA FIRE

Israel keeps pounding Gaza
Hamas still using human shields
US bunker busting bombs are coming

Iran’s new prime minister
Reiterates his support for Hezbollah
Lebanon doesn’t want war
Then kick Hezbollah out!

Post-Gaza war options on the table
But when and why will the war stop?

GEARING UP

Drone warfare is not the future.
It is already the present

AI is now making battlefield decisions.
Who is to blame if it messes up?

A space war could be inevitable.
It could actually already be happening

THE SLIPPERY SLOPE

US to deploy missiles into Germany
Russia vows a military response

Subsea internet cables are a risk.
Russia or China could cut us off
One subsea cable is now missing

Putin hosts India’s Modi
Hey, Biden, pay attention!

FINANCE

Private equity is keeping the wheels on
With creative wizardry
And gorging on debt to pay investors

Japan to adjust $1.5T pension investments
How will it affect global markets?

Investment banking revenue is rising
Big M&A deals lead the way.

REAL ESTATE

Office vacancy rates hit record high
It’s 34.5% in San Francisco

Apartments have boomed for years.
Are they now set for a correction?

Pandemic-era boomtowns are overvalued
Texas and Florida are at risk.

TECHNOLOGY

New fiber optics tech
Smashes previous data rate record

A pill to treat alcoholism exists.
For some reason doctors won’t prescribe it
A podcast episode deep dives on this topic

Here come the restaurant robots
Where will displaced workers find jobs?

THE CHAT ON AI

OpenAI tests AI’s ability to persuade
Persuade or brainwash?

OpenAI was hacked
What can’t hackers penetrate?

Is the AI evolution losing steam?
After every gold rush comes a bust.

OUR GOOD FRIEND, FAILURE

Pharma companies game the system
Driving up drug prices.
Insurers scam Medicare for billions

Northwestern’s law school is racist
Against white men.

The TikTok debate.
National security vs. free speech

THE NEXT NORMAL

Families are leaving NYC
Has the urban trend peaked?

More Americans are retiring in Europe
Up almost double since 2000.

The “it” meal for this summer…
Dry martini, Caesar salad and fries

THE WAR ON CARBON

Oil demand sets record in 2023
BP forecasts rising O&G demand
Oil prices are rising
Summer is a big driving season.

Climate activists have 10X the money
Than fossil fuel advocates.

Alaska sues US government for billions
Canceling lease sales reduces state revenue.

THE ENERGY TRANSITION

Commercial scale climate investment drops
Have we reached peak climate investment?

Global LNG market is fragile
Is price volatility coming?

Geothermal power producer signs contract
To provide CA utility power for 15 years

THE EV DREAM—OR DELUSION

Auto dealerships like selling EVs.
Because they have a shorter life span

Rechargeable lithium batteries
Have a forever chemical problem

BYD to build $1B Turkey EV plant
Can they avoid EU tariffs?

THE CHINA SYNDROME

China has a record trade surplus
Will they export deflation globally?

American brands losing ground in China
Is there any way to turn things around?

China controls its social media.
Yet they don’t block xenophobic narratives?

THE WASHING-TONE

China’s been shipping steel through Mexico.
US slaps tariffs on that sneaky scheme

Justice Department lets Boeing off easy
No surprise here.

There’s a fight over how much we drink
You think weed is going to fix this?

THE ELECTION DISTRACTION

Biden can’t quit until after the convention.
Or it will cost him or Kamala $100MM

George Clooney calls for Biden to withdraw
Actors pretend for a living, right?

How to unite the country.
Maybe it just takes a great bathroom

MAKING A BETTER YOU

The right stuff to snack on
If you want healthy snacking.

Gardening is really good for you.
Here’s why

When you’re super hot and sweaty
This is the best way to rehydrate
Foods that keep you hydrated

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

The scientist’s 10 commandments
PURE GENIUS!!!

Butterflies can fly 2,600 miles
Wow!

Why is Chile so long?
As long as the US and Canada combined.

PLANNING VACATION?

Want a surreal vacation
Roam through Saudi Arabia

Are you budget conscious?
Where to get the biggest bang for buck

The best months of the year
To visit each national park.

MUSIC BOX

A world music introduction.
Radio Sai Bhajan
From Puttaparthi, India.

Bonus tunes…

Frank Zappa plays the bicycle in 1963
Yes, the bicycle…Who knew!
From those roots came Zappa’s “Montana.”

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

How to speak to anyone
An interview with a Pulitzer Prize journalist.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

Fly Me To The Moon trailer.
Looks like fun stuff.

The Seven Samurai trailer.
Can a classic revive movie theaters?

Godzilla, Minus One
I can’t stop watching it.

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

How about a cool summer salad
Yes, please.

Watermelon is good for you
For many reasons.

It’s strawberry season.
Get them into some recipes

THE RANDOMS

Inflation is cooling, but prices have risen over 20%+ since February 2020. Whose wages have increased 20%+ since February 2020?

JPMorgan just reported a drop in operating profit. Its CEO Jamie Dimon said, “But there are still multiple inflationary forces in front of us: large fiscal deficits, infrastructure needs, restructuring of trade and remilitarization of the world.”Take note, folks who think rates will soon drop hard.

Let’s be honest, no presidential candidate is going to campaign with an austerity message, even with our giant budget deficits and our bloated debt. No one gets elected preaching that voters need to sacrifice.

It’s counterintuitive in a way, but natural disasters like the hurricane Beryl are economically stimulating. The reconstruction of affected areas is a transfer of money from insurers to construction products and services. Some people refer to this as “broken window economics.” Eventually, insurers will raise premiums to cover their losses. But in the short run all the rebuilding activity increases economic activity.

Who, why and what amount are we going to personally pay to use AI? Are we going to pay Apple, Microsoft, Disney and other big tech/media companies even more? Will someone invent some sort of AI gadget that fits in our pocket that we’ll carry around all the time?

If we consumers are not going to pay some big tech/media company for AI, then how does the AI business model work, outside of replacing labor with technology?

The recent French and UK elections suggest their voters expect productive change. Are they about to learn this actually can’t happen without economic pain?

There may be one great thing about the Baby Boomers. They definitely knew how to party.

Who knew that 5,000 years ago the Sahara Desert was a vast grassland?

Written in the Declaration of Independence is the phrase “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.” For some reason, it appears that the pursuit of happiness has become the overarching goal of most people. But the pursuit of happiness does not necessarily produce wisdom. Unless, of course, that wisdom is the result of failure in the pursuit of happiness.

If money were no issue, then where in the world would you live?

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

America the Beautiful
July 5, 2024

Will the American Empire Fall?
June 28, 2024