The New King of Europe

May 20, 2022

A nickel ain’t worth a dime anymore.
– Yogi Berra

THOUGHTS FROM DOUG

Given the recent stock market drubbing, will the Fed reverse course and move away from tightening and toward accommodating? Or will they wait for home values to start falling?

With decades of the wealth effect (higher securities and home values) being an important economic engine, how will the economy behave as financial asset values fall?

Once we’re in full-fledged recession, hopefully we’ll see inflation subside. If not, Houston, we have a problem.

How does raising US interest rates improve inflation caused by global issues?

A massive effort to eliminate trade with Russia has its consequences. Inflation is one of them. How long will it take brand new supply chains to ease inflation?

It’s worth saying again: Both economic expansions and contractions tend to feed off themselves. How will the Fed come to the rescue when we’re in recession?

The path of progress is filled with challenge and failure. How else would we learn? Get used to it if you want to achieve something.

Half of President Biden’s Twitter followers are fake, as are seventy percent of Elon Musk’s. Are the social media company earnings massively padded by fake users, which drives up advertising revenue?

Everyone wants to figure out the stock market bottom. When everyone is trying to do the same thing, the world seems to do something different.

Someone likely needs to do an analysis, or at least just ask an important question: How much influence does government regulation have on inflation?

One-third of Americans think the goal of immigration is to bolster one political party’s future election prospects. Maybe this is a delusion, but maybe the effort to create a global village in everyone’s backyard is happening too fast. This seems to be another sign that the era of globalization may have reached a point of diminishing returns.

You are what you think. So what is it that you think? When do you think about what you think?

Is social media in retweet? Har har har…

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

Retail sales rise
Did inflation help them rise?
Walmart signals earnings challenges
Could retail slowdown tame inflation?
Stores have too much inventory

NY manufacturing index is a dud
Weak activity all over.
Consumer sentiment hits 10-year low

Subprime problems are rising
Every recession has a default crisis.

SOME GOOD NEWS!

US companies increase capex
Reshoring/near-shoring gains momentum.

Indonesia to lift its palm oil ban
This will help global food markets.

EU to help Ukraine export its agriculture
More good news on food.

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN 

Hamburger inflation
Check out increased ingredient costs.

Fed committed to solving inflation
Can domestic policy influence global stresses?

Ben Bernanke sees stagflation ahead
So does economist Mohamed El-Erian

The coming rise in residential inflation
A report from the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Rent inflation may stick around
Manhattan rents hit record

THE LABOR VIEW

Walmart and Amazon have too many workers
Are layoffs the next trend?

Goldman Sachs mandates vacation
You have to take it!

How labor gained an edge
They won’t relinquish it easily.

Tech workers put their foot down
They don’t want to return to the office.
Microsoft vows to boost pay measurably

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

UK inflation hits 9%
German producer prices up 33.5%
Wowsville!

Europe’s plan to reduce Russian imports
Increase renewables, reduce energy use.
But for now they’re in energy poverty

Record LNG exports to Europe
Causing Americans to pay more

The new king of Europe
France’s Macron wants more influence.

PLAYING WITH FIRE

A clash of two systems

Nassim Taleb’s view of the war.
Finland and Sweden ready to join NATO

But Turkey has some tough demands
Is the prospect of a Ukraine victory real?
Greece upgrades its US defense deal
Italy’s Eni SpA to pay Russia in rubles
Ukraine war could make New England shiver
Germany set to stop buying Russian oil
McDonald’s to exit Russia after 3 decades
EU’s Russian oil ban stalls
Hungary wants EU compensation for oil ban
US floats tariff idea on Russian oil
EU says companies can buy Russian gas
Greece wants US fighter jets
India is playing both sides of the war
Russia oil output falling fast
Mariupol troops surrender to Russia
High oil and gas prices keep Russia afloat
As US tries to cripple Russian oil industry
Russian economy is “especially gloomy”
China quietly buying Russian oil
As they prepare for US sanctions?

GLOBAL

The next emerging markets crisis
Is gathering steam.
Pakistan already in trouble

Covid hits North Korea big time
Could they be a variant incubator?

Asia’s junk bond market dries up
Fear is replacing confidence.

UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES

Global poor are at huge risk
Covid and Russia to blame.
India bans wheat exports

Shanghai lockdown
Exposes supply chain challenges.
Lockdown slated to end in June

Offshoring is turning into “friend-shoring”
A new global trade order is developing.

The global supply chain index
This is good info to watch.

THE FINANCE WORLD

Here comes the earnings recession
Supply chain, inflation and wage challenges.

ESG is “an outrageous scam”
So says Elon Musk.
As Tesla is cut from S&P ESG Index

Is there a time bomb coming
In closed-end debt funds?

THE CRYPTO MEME

What is crypto anyway?
In closed-end debt funds?

Crypto should “die in a fire”
Says UC Berkeley’s tech leader.

More crypto pain coming
Suggests SEC chairman.

TECHNOLOGY

Internet crime a booming business
How do we stop this freight train?

Web3 looks like big trouble
HBR interviews an expert.

Bad times are coming to startups
The party is over
More carnage to come
The tech bubble may be bursting.

THE NEXT NORMAL

What’s worrying Americans?
Inflation leads the list…by far.

Is comedy helping conservatives
At the expense of liberals?

People keep moving to rural areas
More people are going remote
A great migration may have started.

THE WAR ON CARBON

Renewables produced 20% of electricity in April
Powered by a wind boom in the Midwest.

Business travel is a climate problem
Those first class tickets, fancy suites and food!

The 4 ingredients our modern world needs
They all depend on fossil fuels.

THE CHINA SYNDROME

China warns the US
A “dangerous situation” with Taiwan.

Defiant Chinese are using blockchain
To skirt censorship and vent.

Beijing cuts mortgage rates
They need more home buyers.
As their economic slump deepens
Xi calls for more infrastructure spending
China’s car sales collapse
More foreign investors leave Chinese bonds

THE WASHING-TONE

To counter “greedflation”
Democrats propose the Price Gouging Prevention Act

The Disinformation Board may be dead
Its director has already resigned.

Subsidizing technology
Biden wants to help pay for internet access.

MAKING A BETTER YOU

The key to a long life
Joy is more important than genes.

How to deal with the unexpected
‘Cause we all have to.

How to stop procrastinating
3 root causes and how to address them.

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

Want to mess with Russians?
Check this website out.

Technology-free hotels
Is this a new trend?

What’s your home’s catastrophe risk?
Plug in your address and see

SONG OF THE WEEK

“American Teenager”
Ethel Cain dreams of pop-stardom from Alabama
Lyrics

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

Kalush Orchestra performs “Stefania”
Ukrainian band wins Eurovision.

England’s dreamer, Danny Boyle
Takes on the Sex Pistols

The Avatar 2 trailer is out
Give us more!

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

Elon Musk’s latest perspectives
The All-In gang gets him going.
Or watch them all on YouTube

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

36 great shrimp recipes
Summer shrimp…ah…good!

Innovated and improved fish farming
Is happening in Maine.

The Calgary Stampede event
Has some crazy food offerings

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

The Leyendecker View: High Gas Prices May Last Years
May 13, 2022

The Leyendecker View: Real Disposable Income Keeps Falling
May 6, 2022