IRR Is a Vanity Metric

May 27, 2022

We learn from history is that we do not learn from history.
– Friedrich Hegel

THOUGHTS FROM DOUG

Let’s not forget: ALL inflation is transitory. The obvious important metric is how long it lasts.

By the way…recessions are also transitory. Okay, okay…expansions, too. The obvious important metric is the same—how long do they last?

When will the stock market collapse come to an end? Maybe once we see some “whale” investors go bankrupt?

The worrisome thing about the stock market crash is that everyone thinks it will end sooner rather than later. When everyone thinks the same thing is generally when things change.

Why is buying things (consumption) more important than making things (production) to the economy? Wouldn’t making things seem more economically important?

The TV series The Jetsons took place in 2062. That means George Jetson, a 40-year old dad, was born this year. 

Sometimes you have to lose your mind just to keep your sanity. Get in some vacation time this summer, folks, maybe lots of it!

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

US budget deficit to fall to $1T
Down $1T in a year is now a “win.”

New home sales fall 16+%
It’s a tough ole world right now.

Fortune 500 CEOs chime in
75% expect a recession this year.

Small business confidence is falling
Is the recession already here?

SOME GOOD NEWS!

US birth rate ticks up
More people is good for economy.

The cost of chicken wings is falling
Get ‘em while they last!

Deglobalization may have its advantages
Technology can make it less painful.

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN 

US food prices up over 10%
Will they fall with higher interest rates?

Global inflation prospects
Which countries will get hurt the worst?

The Fed wants to tackle inflation
Could it start a global crisis?

THE LABOR VIEW

Are layoffs coming?
Or can companies ride this slowdown?

Small business wage growth accelerates
Will they have to raise prices?

BofA ups minimum wage to $22
On their path to $25 an hour goal.

In the battle for workers
Companies may start providing housing.
The rules for work are uncertain

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

Poland wants more US arms
Is Poland poised to be a global power?

Sweden may want to join NATO
But it also wants to stay out of fighting.

A weak euro means higher inflation
The EU may need to raise interest rates.

ECB commits to doing so later this year

PLAYING WITH FIRE

Baltics suspend electricity imports from Russia
US tries to build relationships with Central Asia
“Energy security” top concern at Davos
Russia cuts off Finnish gas exports
Starbucks leaving Russia
Starbucks leaving Russia
Anti-war Russian diplomat resigns
Ukraine wants tech companies out of Russia
Russian oil embargo faces more setbacks
Russia and China show solidarity
Finland and Sweden negotiate with Turkey
Russia’s central bank cuts interest rates
Russia and Iran get cozy
Ukraine doesn’t want to give up land
Replacing Russian gas in Europe not easy
Putin will trade food for sanctions

GLOBAL

Davos CEOs see downturn coming
Are too many people predicting recession?

India has an immense economic opportunity
Can they make it happen?

North Korea’s Covid cases explode
Watch out for variants developing there.

Europe waves a finger at the Middle East
We want your LNG, but get rid of oil & gas.

UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES

China has a sugar shortage
As India contracts exports

The US is getting out-competed
Says CEO of North American Manufacturing Association.

What’s with this kid’s hepatitis outbreak?
Is this another globalization consequence?
Or is it due to covid restrictions?

THE FINANCE WORLD

SEC wants better ESG reporting
Quantifying ESG is not easy.

They made a killing on SPACs
Wall Street bankers, that is.

PE exits collapsed in Q1 2022
Liquidity events fell 57.5% from Q4 2021.

IRR is a vanity metric
Look beyond, around and beneath it.

THE CRYPTO MEME

The state of crypto
Andreessen Horowitz tackles Web3.
As it raises $4.5B for a crypto fund

18-year-old steals millions
And then he disappears.

Crypto is “worth nothing”
Suggests ECB Chairman Lagarde.

TECHNOLOGY

The era of borderless data
May be coming to an end.

Google in big antitrust trouble
Not long ago, it was revelatory.

China leads the supercomputer race
As the US plays catch up.

THE NEXT NORMAL

The great American demographic shift
What are the repercussions?
As people continue to leave US cities

College enrollment continues to decline
Will this force tuition costs to fall?

Make a new language contribution
Submit your emoji idea.

THE WAR ON CARBON

Leaders at Davos talk energy and climate change
Will there be a new approach?

The air conditioning paradox
Can we cool people without warming the planet?

Launching rockets
Could be creating climate problems.

THE CHINA SYNDROME

Is a leadership challenge underway in China?
Is Li pushing out Xi?

Investing in China
Is it a bargain or another Russia?

Biden took a SE Asia trip:
Biden commits support to Taiwan
And supports new SE Asia trade network
Quad leaders confirm military commitment

China stimulus hits $5T
They always want to outdo Washington.

MAKING A BETTER YOU

The ultimate brain booster
Could be a simple nap.

How to think
A skill you’ve never been taught.

How to put life on easy mode
Get more quality out of your life.

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

Software can write a great poem
And we can’t tell it’s from AI.

Disney has lots more Marvel content
They have enough stories to last to 2032.

Should we be listening to indigenous peoples?
They know stories we forgot.

SONG OF THE WEEK

The Goede Hoop Marimba Band
Plays Vivaldi

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

Top Gun trailer
Maverick is back after 26 years.

Stranger Things season 4 trailer
What’s lurking in the shadows?

What’s a Trukla?
An engineer makes her own Tesla truck.

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

Reversing the aging process
Dr. David Sinclair wants to live well past 100.

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

Caramelized pork in fish sauce
Whoa, buddy!

All hail Spam
Four tasty recipes.

Trader Joe’s annual consumer favorites
Get ‘em before they run out!

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

The Leyendecker View: The New King of Europe
May 22, 2022

The Leyendecker View: High Gas Prices May Last Years
May 13, 2022