Picking Teams in the School Yard

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

I’m totally, 100%, sadly, addicted.
– Artist and musician Laurie Anderson can’t stop talking
to the AI version of her late husband, Lou Reed

THINKING OUT LOUD

Picking Teams in the Schoolyard

As we all know, the geopolitical environment has changed dramatically over the last few years. The once-globalized, cooperative and collaborative world is fragmenting.

Several factors have contributed to this geopolitical breakdown. One was in 2016, when then presidential candidate Donald Trump called Europe on the carpet for not honoring their NATO defense spending commitments.

For years, Europe had been suggesting “the check’s in the mail” on their NATO commitment. This was not really fair to the US. Our political leaders did nothing about it until Trump started shaking that status quo. But European countries continued their “check’s in the mail” posture.

Having observed Europe’s long lack of interest in sovereign defense, and with the ability to wield Russia’s energy influence to manipulate prices and supply, Putin decided to invade Ukraine in February 2022. He expected a quick take-over. That didn’t happen. In the intervening years, all the rounds of American and EU sanctions have driven Russia into the arms of new trading partners to maintain their economy. Many of these new trading partners are also authoritarian dictatorships.

Also contributing to the global crack-up: In January 2018, when then President Trump imposed tariffs on China for stealing American intellectual property. By coincidence, just a few months earlier in late 2017, the US State Department recognized that China had started to restrict Western investment in certain industries.

Trump called China out and imposed tariffs. And then Covid showed up from China exactly two years later. 

Since being elected, President Biden has maintained Trump’s Chinese tariffs, while adding even more restrictions on trade with China to protect US technology and intellectual property. Biden has also been all-in on providing Ukraine aid to deter Russia’s aggression.

Now Russia and China are working hard to establish formal trade relationships with parts of the world where Western influence is weak. And Russia is trying to ditch the dollar by creating a BRICS payment system.

Is the G20 losing its political pull?, asked a recent Bloomberg article. Time will tell if Western countries can maintain their global economic and political leadership.

As China and Russia attempt to pull developing nations toward them, the West is pushing them away via our incessant demand that they embrace Western climate change policies. These policies impact developing countries’ economies quite negatively.

In order to maintain its economic and political influence over developing economies, the Western world might want to pay attention to Bjørn Lomborg’s skepticism of the West’s approach to climate change and insistence that the developing world fall in line. Stop shoving the West’s idealistic policies down the throats of developing economies, or they just might decide to join the other team.

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

25 US cities with best quality of life
Not a single one in Texas.

Goldman’s CEO hesitates on soft landing
Maybe a recession is still coming.

Nestlé issues a warning.
Consumers have become more frugal

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN

Fed’s favorite inflation metric rises
Will we even see a rate cut this year?

Auto insurance gets a lot more expensive.
So does fixing modern cars
Insurance no longer a sure thing in California

Hotels need to raise prices
To compensate for higher wages.

THE LABOR VIEW

CEOs’ top concern in 2024?
Finding talented workers

Filmmaker shelves studio investment
AI will require less studio space and less labor.

As companies trim workers
WFH workers may be at most risk

How to handle a bad boss.
4 strategies to try out

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

Germany and Italy torpedo supply chain law
Is forced Chinese labor okay?

Hungary approves Sweden’s NATO bid
Ukraine invasion strengthens NATO
Did Putin miscalculate?
NATO map

EU regulations will drive away investment
Says chemical industry billionaire.

THE GLOBAL GAME

Majority of Iranians want secular rule
Why can’t they get it?

South Korea is the global top dog.
The lowest fertility rate in the world
Global fertility rates map
Record number of Japanese avoid marriage

Iran and Hungary sign cooperation agreement
Isn’t Hungary a NATO member?

THE UKRAINE FIRE

Ukraine needs more money.
How about from seized Russian asset profits?

France’s Macron drops a bomb.
He’s not ruling out sending troops to war
Germany and Poland say that’s not happening
Putin says, don’t forget we have nukes
Europe must spend more to deter Russia
Says the Danish Prime Minister.

Will Ukraine be part of NATO one day?
NATO chief says it’s a lock

THE GAZA FIRE

Blinken says Israeli settlements are illegal
Biden desperately wants a cease-fire.
Hamas put a knife in that idea

Israel’s economic output plunges
War has not been economically stimulating.

Only the Middle East
Can fix the Middle East

THE NEW COLD WAR

Russia is working the Cuba angle.
Russian security chief visits Cuba
Russian tourism grows in Cuba

Turkey has made their first fighter jet
And wants mass production by 2028.
But they’re still chummy with Russia

FINANCE

The bank NYCB is on the ropes
Will bank trouble spur the Fed to drop rates?

Warren Buffett’s annual letter
Sage words for an investing sage.

Payouts have plummeted 49%
At major private equity fund managers.
Credit earns more than equity in public PE

Someone pass out the hankies.
Blackstone CEO didn’t make a billion last year

REAL ESTATE

Warehouse boom fades in Central CA
Canary in the coal mine for the industrial market?

A real estate market that keeps booming.
Doomsday bunkers

Real estate agents per 1,000 jobs
A state-by-state view.

TECHNOLOGY

The first Vision Pro buyer in NYC.
Doesn’t sound very enthused

Cybercrime expected to skyrocket
The bad guys always seem one step ahead.

Here comes the smart ring
To sync up with your smart watch.

Technology threatens electric grids.
So countries are curbing data center growth

THE CHAT ON AI

Elon Musk sues OpenAI
They totally abandoned their mission.

Could Mistral become AI king?
It’s an only-9-months-old French start-up!
Why Europe is a laggard in tech

Bezos and OpenAI team up.
To create an AI humanoid robot
Have they not seen the movie I, Robot?

THE NEXT NORMAL

Tech wants you to be its zombie slave
And it’s succeeding.

Autonomous EVs won’t guzzle gas.
But they’ll guzzle electricity

Peter Thiel will pay $100,000
To 20 people who skip college

THE WAR ON CARBON

Global oil demand keeps hitting records
Will we reach peak oil anytime soon?

Argentina gets serious about shale O&G
Will this lead to a global supply glut?

US energy sources and uses
Where it comes from, where it goes.

THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION

Big oil frackers are chasing geothermal
They have the equipment and know-how.

US solar growth exploded in 2023
What happens when panels burn out?

German steel makers embrace hydrogen
Maybe this is where hydrogen is cost effective.
Hydrogen doesn’t look like auto fuel

THE EV DREAM

Apple kills its EV effort
The EV market has too many players.
Ford’s EV sales drop

Toyota’s been an EV skeptic
Maybe they were right.

The rush to create other Teslas
Looks like a big bust

THE CHINA SYNDROME

Xi cracks down on hedonistic bankers
No fun for China’s Wall Street crowd.

China government entities
Buy $57B in stocks to support the market

Mao-era militias return
CCP seeks more and more control.

THE WASHING-TONE

Are Chinese auto parts a security risk?
How about Chinese cranes at our ports?
Setting the stage for a trade war.

Majority of Americans want a border wall
Well now, what’s the play Washington?

FTC doesn’t like Kroger-Albertsons deal
The bigger, the more labor and price control!

MAKING A BETTER YOU

Want to boost your concentration?
Stare at this dot for one minute

Your first step to a better mood
Is better sleep

Visiting a foreign country is mentally healthy.
A psychedelic experience could be, as well

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

A 29 year old sails around the world alone.
Cole Brauer channels full human potential

As bright as 500 trillion suns
This black hole eats a sun a day!!!

Birds, birds, birds
What beauties they are.

SONG OF THE WEEK

“Someone Like You”
Van Morrison is certainly a poet.
As are his lyrics.

Adele also has…
“Someone Like You”
Her lyrics are poetry, too.

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

Leadership Next interviews Exxon Mobil’s CEO
Great perspectives from a great company.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

Shogun trailer.
What can we learn from this classic?

Drive-Away Dolls trailer.
A Coen brother goes solo

Back to the Future 4
A trailer before a movie is created.

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

What chefs say about their industry
Don’t let your kid do it!
Eating out gets more expensive

The story of the $1.50 Costco hot dog
They will never raise the price.

French onion baked lentils and farro
This looks seriously good!

THE RANDOMS

Today people might say, with money, all things are possible. Not too long ago many people would quote the Bible: “With God, all things are possible.”

Billionaires made ever more billions in 2023. Should there be a How to Become a Billionaire TV show?

Is the restaurant industry about to have a big fallout? According to this NY Times article, for which several chefs wereinterviewed, restaurant work is grueling, and it’s very difficult to make money. Labor costs are up. Food costs are up. Energy costs are up in coastal green cities. Throw in a recession, and the restaurant industry may experience a meltdown.

We’re already starting to see some news stories about deflation. From Bloomberg: “China’s Economy Under Pressure as Inflation Drops at Fastest Pace in 14 Years.” And the Financial Times: “China to export deflation to the world as economy stumbles.”

Japan’s stock market has been on fire, recently eclipsing a 34-year-old high. Warren Buffett and other international investors are piling in. Yet, Louis Kuijs, the chief Asia-Pacific economist for S&P Global Ratings, just said of Japan’s economy “Don’t expect much more than 1% GDP growth in the long run.” It seems odd that a less-than robust economy is the new investment darling.

It’s interesting that technology and now AI are massive energy and water hogs. EVs are also massive minerals hogs. Solar panels and wind turbines are massive mineral hogs, as well. I guess all the “clean” energy folks don’t really care about the environmental consequences of their demand to end hydrocarbons immediately.

I just learned that EVs weigh significantly more than their similar ICE vehicles. Consequently,  accidents involving EVs can be much more life threatening, and our roads will require much more maintenance.

Companies are building AI technology that will be able to read your mind. Your “brain data” could be used against you or used to manipulate you. Isn’t all technology and innovation just wonderful? Pass the pot brownies, would you please?

Come on, really. With AI, why does the world even need humans? All we need is clean energy, and then we can all move to the Metaverse and live there forever.

Will AI emancipate or enslave humanity? If it’s somewhere in between, then to which end of the spectrum will it skew, how far and why?

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Guilty as Charged!
February 23, 2024

Is Deflation Around the Corner?
February 16, 2024