Is Work Dangerous for Workers?

October 28, 2022

The storms of life make us stronger. Embrace them.
– Bear Grylls

THOUGHTS FROM DOUG

Why would anyone sell a house with a 3% mortgage to buy a house with a 7% mortgage? Those who stay put in their current homes may see better returns on home improvement investments.

“It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas” may be a bust this year. Even McDonald’s is expecting a downturn.

In expansions, our wants become more important than our needs. In recessions, our needs become more important than our wants.

The dollar is starting to decline, so the price of oil is starting to rise. Will this lead to stickier inflation?

The head of Gallup has written a book, called Blind Spot, that suggests governments are not in sync with their citizens.

Maybe this is how things work: First comes higher interest rates. Then corporate earnings decline because of higher-interest costs. Then employment declines after corporate earnings decline. Then corporate earnings decline further because more unemployment means lower consumption. Then employment declines again. Then the Fed steps in with lower rates. 

Wouldn’t it be refreshing if our next president promised to all US citizens that there will be no more lying and then kept that promise?

Lately, I’ve been wondering if bureaucracy has actually replaced democracy. Did you see the story about San Francisco spending $1.7MM for a single-toilet bathroom?

Some climate activists glued themselves to the ground in a Porsche museum. Some other ones threw mashed potatoes on a Monet. Others threw soup on a Van Gogh. And then there was the chocolate cake episode. I wonder how any of these folks would fare on an episode of Survivor.

End of the day, we just gotta surf the wave that’s in front of us.

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

Q3 GDP grew
Yet consumer confidence declined in October

Home prices down 2.4% from June to August
But still up 42% since pandemic began.
New home sales down over 10%

Advertisers are hitting the breaks
TV ads are almost in free fall.

The restaurant boom may be over
It’s getting too expensive.

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN

Employee health insurance costs $22K a year
And it’s about to go up.

Chickens and turkeys to cost more
As bird flu ravages US stocks.

Coca-Cola reports higher profits
Because they raised prices!!!

THE LABOR VIEW

Q3 wages showed strong growth
But recessions increase unemployment.

Work is dangerous for workers
Suggests the US Surgeon General.

4 years is the median company tenure
For today’s workers.

THE UK MELTDOWN

Rishi Sunak becomes new UK Prime Minister
Be careful what you wish for.
What to know about Rishi Sunak
He immediately reinstates fracking ban

The UK is a credit risk
Suggests Moody’s.

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

ECB raises rates by 0.75%
Get your Euros before they go up.

Will the energy crisis
Crush European industry?

Is Germany about to unravel?
German economic sentiment collapses
Europe’s steady Eddy is in trouble.
Germany about to legalize pot

PLAYING WITH FIRE

Russia’s oil power “will never return”
Putin has really mucked it up.

Russia threatens attack on satellites
Those are Western assets, you know.

Russia to carry out nuclear “drills”
More scare tactics.

Russia destroys Ukraine infrastructure
The freeze-them-to-death strategy.

WILL THE FIRE SPREAD?

China improves their hypersonic missiles
They can travel 1,550 miles without detection.

Who has all the nukes?
How many earths can we destroy?

South Korea triples arms exports
War is good for some economies.

GLOBAL

From offshoring to friend-shoring
Not total deglobalization.

The unhappiest people in the world
Here’s where they live.

Canada supports euthanasia
Which naturally generates controversy.

THE FINANCE WORLD

Credit Suisse posts $4B loss
They need to raise billions to survive.

Retail investor portfolios down 44%
There goes the wealth effect.
The dash for cash!

89% of stocks
Are held by the wealthiest 10%
Yet 58% of Americans own stock

The VC market feels the burn
The easy money is behind us.

REAL ESTATE

Apartment builders
Are full steam ahead.

Global cities’ real estate bubbles
Where are they the biggest?

Banks have too many real estate loans
The Fed wants them to fess up

TECHNOLOGY

Meta is losing steam
Misses earning projections
Blames Apple for their problems
And clings to the multiverse future

Microsoft posts slowest growth in 5 years
While Alphabet’s profit drops
Amazon stumbles, too
Has tech peaked?

The newest productivity tools
May be reducing productivity.
Have we reached app overload?

THE CRYPTO MEME

Crypto defined in 40,000 words
40,000 words…uh…I’ll skip it.

Bitcoin ETF is one year old
And worth half its initial value.

VC crypto investment plunging
Does crypto have a future?

THE NEXT NORMAL

Singapore politicians are TikTok superstars
Get with it, Western politicians!

Gamers have higher brain function scores
But how about their social scores?

Oregon decriminalized drugs two years ago
And addiction problems got worse.

THE WAR ON CARBON

Europe bans the ICE vehicle
Starting in 2035.

2020 California forest fires
Negated almost 20 years of emissions cuts.

Renewables more at risk of cyber attacks
So says the DOE.

Oilfield giant open to renewables
Schlumberger broadens its focus.

THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION

Solar farm rejected in Texas
NIMBY citizens squash deal.

Does Europe have too much gas?
LNG tankers are stacked offshore
Pipelines are full in the US
Is a natural gas glut here?

Hydro, the world’s biggest renewable source
Has a drought problem
California is living it

THE EV DREAM

Gigafactories needed to recycle EV batteries
What will their carbon footprint be?

Let’s jump ahead of EVs
And consider the all-solar car

The best US road trips
Probably won’t be achievable in an EV

THE CHINA SYNDROME

China tightens covid restrictions—again
Not good for any economy—or human living under these conditions.

Chinese cotton
May have a slave problem

Xi gets his new term
And China’s stock market plunges
Here’s what worries economists and investors

THE WASHING-TONE

Biden’s China chip ban
May have already been circumvented

White House releases AI rights draft
Critic says it’s toothless against big tech

MAKING A BETTER YOU

How to choose your next book
In case you read books.

Does money make you happy?
Maybe, but not all the time.

The end of real social networks
Living in a derivative of the real.

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

How to really carve a pumpkin
This woman is a genius!

Before there were all manner of gadgets
There was the sky

Why did Judas betray Jesus?
Gospel translation offers a new perspective.

SONG OF THE WEEK

“Love Me Till I’m Gone”
Nathaniel Rateliff & The Night Sweats
Lyrics are poetry, you know.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

Raymond and Ray
A nuanced film, not a blockbuster movie.

White Noise
Sometimes there is no plan.

UFO believers and locals
Contemplate UFOs near Area 51

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

Simple rules for happiness
Shane Parrish interviews author Neil Pasricha.

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

How to cook a duck breast
Very yummy!

Want to live a long time?
Eat these 14 foods

Winter squash season is coming
Here are some tasty recipes

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

The Great Unretirement
October 21, 2022

Manufacturing Employment Is Rising
October 14, 2022