Fed Chair Admits Bombshell

July 1, 2022
Leyendecker Executive Search

July 1, 2022

Ask not what your country can do for you—
ask what you can do for your country.

President John F. Kennedy

THOUGHTS FROM DOUG

It won’t surprise me if, in a quarter or two from now, the official recession counters look back on today and tell us we were already in a recession.

All inflation is transitory. What matters is the term of time. At the same time, all recessions are transitory. Again, what matters is the term of time.

Over the last 40ish years, we’ve been able to counterbalance any rise in commodity prices with the lower wage costs that came with globalization. But the era of ever-lower wage costs has come to an end.

While the G7 meetings were taking place, Argentina and Iran applied for BRICS membership. The BRICS include Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Are we seeing the future of trade here? Is it a coincidence that BRICS countries are not leading the movement to destroy hydrocarbons?

If the G7 significantly increases its cost of energy in order to eliminate hydrocarbons and the BRICS+ do not, then who has the economic advantage in goods production and transportation?

Let’s say the G7 applies a carbon tax on products that come from countries not toeing the climate change line. Are there products the BRICS+ countries need to sell us, or will they be fine just trading among themselves?

Prior to the 2008/2009 recession, the price of commodities like oil and gas went sky high. At the time, everyone thought there was a commodity shortage. Crude oil hit a peak of $140 in June of 2008. But six months later, in January of 2009, oil had fallen to around $40. Could something similar be happening today? Are investors again moving from financial assets to hard assets in anticipation of recession, or is there really a commodity shortage this time?

Given that globalization is starting to fall apart, one country in particular, and more than any others, seems to be in the catbird seat of future economic leadership and success. This country has a wealth of natural resources, leads the world in innovation and has a solid work ethic. If only their government would stop trying to run everything. Can you guess this country?

When there’s no common enemy, an enemy will be found from within. Up until Russia invaded Ukraine, Western countries were infighting. Now Russia has pulled the West back together with common purpose. Now NATO is bulking up its focus on not just Russia but China, too.

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

More than 8MM folks late on rent
As rents keep going up.

US retail sales fell in May
While durable goods orders rise
Consumer confidence lowest in a decade
We need gas prices to go down

Interest rates need to go higher
Suggests Bank of International Settlements.

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN 

Recession may not be here yet.
But stagflation is

Rail transportation costs rise
As global JIT world comes apart.
More supply chain disruptions coming

US export prices up 18.9%
As import prices rise by 11.7%
Is this a good thing?

THE LABOR VIEW

Gig work can be dehumanizing
‘Cause you don’t really belong.

State of the global workforce, 2022
Stress, stress, stress and apathy.

Key to effective leadership
Admit what you don’t know.

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

Sweden and Finland could join EU
After Turkey gives the thumbs up.

Europe’s new source of energy
Could be Ukraine.
They sync up electric grids
As Europe’s power crisis grows
Plans to exit Russian gas are wildly optimistic
t France has ample gas stored
The UK has tons of stranded nat gas

PLAYING WITH FIRE

Russia defaults on debt
Baltics want more NATO support
Stick it in your eye, G7
Russia is clawing its way through
Western gear in Russia is falling apart
Is Russia a terrorist organization?
G7 looks to cap Russian oil revenues
Chinese companies helping Russian military
US military to expand in Europe
China owns 10% of Ukraine’s farmland
Russia leaves Snake Island
The Baltics want off the Russian grid

GLOBAL

Pakistan seeks UAE bailout
UAE wants more than interest payments.

Australia-Singapore solar project
Will build 2,600-mile undersea cable

Emerging markets are in trouble
Inflation and de-globalization are not good.
Neither is a strong dollar

THE FINANCE WORLD

If it were a real bank
The Fed would be bankrupt

Fed says US banks are sound
As sound as the Fed?

SPACs are near a death spiral
What investment class is next?

Public pension funds taking a risk
As they borrow money to invest.

THE CRYPTO MEME

Goldman downgrades Coinbase to sell
Wall Street banks never say sell!

Hackers rule
As they steal ever more crypto

Hedge funds put the screws in crypto
They are betting against it.
Crypto fund ordered to liquidate

TECHNOLOGY

Social media may control children minds
California wants to let parents sue.
While FCC wants to get rid of TikTok

Chip costs may soar
Following rising power costs.
Chip industry correction looms
Here comes another Texas chip plant

Is there anything useful about Web3?
No one seems capable of explaining it.

THE NEXT NORMAL   

Middle America poised for a comeback
Now that’s some really good news.
A rural America boom has started

The new space race
Is it just another land war?

Gene-designed babies could happen
According to CRISPR co-creator.

THE WAR ON CARBON

VW’s EVs will pass Tesla’s sales by 2025
Says VW CEO.

2022 clean energy investment to top $1.4T
Coal also gets a 10% increase.

EU bans ICE vehicles starting in 2035
They better get busy building windmills.

THE CHINA SYNDROME

China to censor online comments
Do Chinese citizens care?
Xi hails authoritarian takeover of Hong Kong

China—Africa’s peace negotiator
Managing their future empire?

Yet China threatens African biodiversity
In its quest for more iron.

THE WASHING-TONE

We don’t understand inflation
Fed Chair admits a bombshell.

GOP gains over 1MM registered voters
Will Roe v. Wade stop this rising tide?

Supreme Court reins in the EPA
No more ruling by executive agency fiat.

MAKING A BETTER YOU

8 secrets to a fulfilled life
Is it more than just money?

How to be excellent
A fine aspiration, for sure.

How to breathe
‘Cause we don’t know how.

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

Our solar system in true color
Wow, it’s pretty groovy.

20 incredible US road trips
In case you have the hankering.

You smell like your friends
Really, you do.

SONG OF THE WEEK

Band on the Run”
Paul McCartney and Dave Grohl at 2022 Glastonbury.
Lyrics
McCartney turned 80 last week.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

Origin of the world map
Before we had satellites.

The marble music machine
From the mind of humans.

Constructing NYC’s Chrysler building
Way cool video from 1930.

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

The case for American seriousness
How can we recapture our lost spirit?
From Honestly with Bari Weiss.

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

Summer time is peach time.
Here are 30 juicy recipes

Summer time is also corn time.
Perfectly grilled corn on the cob
Grilled Mexican street corn salad

A brief history of pickles
We thought you’d want to know.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Are Interest Rates Way Too Low?
June 24, 2022

Energy Regulation Could Totally Change
June 17, 2022

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