Americans Have $5T in Cash

November 18, 2022
Leyendecker Executive Search

November 18, 2022

Welcome to The Leyendecker View

You cannot live your life in fear, or you will forsake the best parts of it.
Daemon Targaryen, episode 4, House of the Dragon

THOUGHTS FROM DOUG

And again, maybe this is how things work: First comes higher interest rates. Then corporate earnings decline because of higher-interest costs. Then employment declines after corporate earnings decline. Then corporate earnings decline further because more unemployment means lower consumption. Then employment declines again. Then the Fed steps in with lower rates. 

When thinking about investing in the stock market or buying/selling a company in today’s world, four words come to mind: Volatility naturally lowers valuation.

Are the challenges at giant tech companies like Amazon, Facebook, Twitter and more a sign that many smaller tech companies will soon be threatened? Valuations of early stage companies are holding up, but will it last?

Hungary’s central bank is in trouble, so their government is changing the rules. Will this be the start of a new trend?

When my parents bought their first new subdivision house about 55 years ago, it cost $25K.  Today’s median home price is edging close to $450K. So when climate activists and the news suggest the cost of our natural disasters will continue to grow, do you think real estate inflation has anything to do with it?

The average price of a new car is approaching $50,000. Are new cars becoming a luxury good?

Here come the “support” packages to wean countries off carbon. Your tax dollars at work.

Hey, all you folks in “rich” countries: Realize that you may soon owe money to the poor countries who your carbon footprint is supposedly  hurting.

When a rising economic tide is lifting all hips, all companies generally grow sales. But it’s when the economic tide goes out that companies can grow market share.

In economic contractions, the toritises who didn’t try to grow too big and too fast have a chance to pass the hares who did.

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

It’s the worst time to buy a house
The durable goods market also suffers.
Consumer confidence is declining
Yet retail sales keep rising

The freight industry is looking ugly
Volumes are down big time.

Reshoring won’t be easy
Don’t piss China off too soon.

Supply chains were breaking down
Before the pandemic.

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN

This year’s Thanksgiving meal price
Will be at a record high.

Americans may still have $5T in cash
Are they going to spend or save it?

Producer prices up 8% over last year
Inflation remains sticky.

THE LABOR VIEW

Real wages down 3.4% from 2021
Some folks likely feel it’s more.

Amazon’s new warehouse robot
Could replace thousands of workers.

Robots, the new journalists?
Robots coming to a pharmacy near you
Robots replacing labor
In Japanese convenience stores.
Here comes the robo-economy
There’s good news about robots
They can’t replace every job.

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

ECB raises the alarm
There’s growing risk to the financial system.

Paris overtakes London
As Europe’s biggest stock market.

Has the European recession started?
It seems to have started in the UK
Where inflation hits 41-year high
While Germany is on the edge

Brussels launches power grab
Bureaucrats want more control.

PLAYING WITH FIRE

Russia’s missile strategy
Freeze Ukrainians to death.
While Poland takes a hit
Supposedly it wasn’t Russia

Russian software infiltrates US defense
The US Army says it was tricked.

US to add more Russian sanctions
Squeezing their military tech network.

Kyiv preparing to totally evacuate
If they can’t get electricity.

GLOBAL

G20 leaders agree
To discuss agreeing.
Is Ukraine a “war” or something else?

Earth’s population just hit 8 billion
An amazing world but with challenges.
10% have no electricity

Thailand is tired of noxious fumes
They may no longer take our trash.

A NEW WORLD ORDER?

US, Japan and  South Korea get together
To call out North Korea’s recent aggressions.

Russia courts the Middle East
Where will friends and foes surface?

China and Saudi Arabia get closer
Does the West have their head in the sand?

THE FINANCE WORLD

Investors go big with leveraged ETFs
What could go wrong?

Still getting a low yield on your cash?
Here’s where high rates are offered

Maybe the bond market isn’t broken
Falling durations ease rate hike pain.
Yet banks are taking losses on bond holdings

ESG is broken
Says former BlackRock exec.

REAL ESTATE

Lack of bond buyers
Is pushing mortgage rates higher.

KPMG says house prices to fall
15% decline at a minimum.
Fed study suggests 20% decline
This map shows recent price activity

Tech is giving up office space
More bad news for the office market.

The global housing market
Is headed for a brutal downturn

TECHNOLOGY

Apple ready for USA-made chips
Making the transition from Asia.

Amazon to cut thousands of jobs
It’s big tech restructuring time.

Twitter could fail soon
A Twitter engineer describes how.

Quantum computing is coming
How do we protect ourselves from it?
Maybe this is how

THE CRYPTO MEME

Binance chief fears cascading crisis
How will the dominoes fall?
Now Binance wants to start a recovery fund
CEO wants to be the new crypto savior
Another exchange halts trading
Many more bankruptcies are coming
Here come the crypto lawsuits

Big investors say bye bye
To the crypto world.

North Korea
The master mind of cyber theft

THE NEXT NORMAL

The most regretted college majors
OMG, journalism is number one!

The age of social media is ending
A story from old media, The Atlantic.

Why is college so unaffordable?
Administrative bloat.

THE WAR ON CARBON

Deep geothermal could be promising
Thanks to new technologies.

New solar panels are coming
They’re going to look cool.

Koch to help build US battery plant
Where there’s subsidy, there’s profit.

Global carbon emissions hit a record
Even as China’s economy slows down.

THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION

The global nuclear energy design leader
Is Russia?

Germany finished building first LNG port
Are more coming?

The great Russian oil switch happens
India, China and Turkey are good customers.

The Eastern Mediterranean
Is poised for a natural gas boom
While Guyana is having an oil boom

THE CHINA SYNDROME

China backs off some covid policies
And plans real estate rescue
Investors cheer
Is it early to celebrate?
China retail sales turn negative

$1.6T of China local state debt in trouble
As the real estate crisis trickles down.

China won’t let some Americans go home
Are they being used for negotiating leverage?

MAKING A BETTER YOU

How to be happy
According to science.

Being sensitive to what’s beautiful
Makes you appreciate the world more.

How to escape your packed schedule
And take a needed break.

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

Japanese ryokans are blissful
Why must they be so far away?

Scientist created a brand new material
That previously only existed in meteorites.

The best inventions of 2022
How about this mini nuclear reactor?

SONG OF THE WEEK

The Lion King
A pretty keen Tiny Desk Concert.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

Daniel Craig and Taika Watiti have fun
Making a Belvedere vodka commercial.

House of the Dragon trailer
In case you have avoided it.

New trailers this week
Get ready for the holidays!

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

Will AI improve the human condition?

Economist Tyler Cowen and Hoover Institute fellows discuss

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

Turkey thighs are heaven
Easy peasy cranberry sauce
Stuffing to gorge on
Yummy Southern cornbread dressing
102 side dishes to choose from

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

The Middle Class Is struggling
November 11, 2022

Economy Is Not in the Chips
November 4, 2022

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