November 18, 2022
Welcome to The Leyendecker View
THOUGHTS FROM DOUG
And again, maybe this is how things work: First comes higher interest rates. Then corporate earnings decline because of higher-interest costs. Then employment declines after corporate earnings decline. Then corporate earnings decline further because more unemployment means lower consumption. Then employment declines again. Then the Fed steps in with lower rates.
When thinking about investing in the stock market or buying/selling a company in today’s world, four words come to mind: Volatility naturally lowers valuation.
Are the challenges at giant tech companies like Amazon, Facebook, Twitter and more a sign that many smaller tech companies will soon be threatened? Valuations of early stage companies are holding up, but will it last?
Hungary’s central bank is in trouble, so their government is changing the rules. Will this be the start of a new trend?
When my parents bought their first new subdivision house about 55 years ago, it cost $25K. Today’s median home price is edging close to $450K. So when climate activists and the news suggest the cost of our natural disasters will continue to grow, do you think real estate inflation has anything to do with it?
The average price of a new car is approaching $50,000. Are new cars becoming a luxury good?
Here come the “support” packages to wean countries off carbon. Your tax dollars at work.
When a rising economic tide is lifting all hips, all companies generally grow sales. But it’s when the economic tide goes out that companies can grow market share.
In economic contractions, the toritises who didn’t try to grow too big and too fast have a chance to pass the hares who did.
THE ECONOMIC VIEW
The freight industry is looking ugly
Volumes are down big time.
Reshoring won’t be easy
Don’t piss China off too soon.
Supply chains were breaking down
Before the pandemic.
THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN
This year’s Thanksgiving meal price
Will be at a record high.
Americans may still have $5T in cash
Are they going to spend or save it?
Producer prices up 8% over last year
Inflation remains sticky.
THE LABOR VIEW
Real wages down 3.4% from 2021
Some folks likely feel it’s more.
Amazon’s new warehouse robot
Could replace thousands of workers.
Robots, the new journalists?
Robots coming to a pharmacy near you
Robots replacing labor
In Japanese convenience stores.
Here comes the robo-economy
There’s good news about robots
They can’t replace every job.
MEANWHILE IN EUROPE
ECB raises the alarm
There’s growing risk to the financial system.
Brussels launches power grab
Bureaucrats want more control.
PLAYING WITH FIRE
Russian software infiltrates US defense
The US Army says it was tricked.
US to add more Russian sanctions
Squeezing their military tech network.
Kyiv preparing to totally evacuate
If they can’t get electricity.
Thailand is tired of noxious fumes
They may no longer take our trash.
A NEW WORLD ORDER?
US, Japan and South Korea get together
To call out North Korea’s recent aggressions.
Russia courts the Middle East
Where will friends and foes surface?
China and Saudi Arabia get closer
Does the West have their head in the sand?
THE FINANCE WORLD
Investors go big with leveraged ETFs
What could go wrong?
Still getting a low yield on your cash?
Here’s where high rates are offered
ESG is broken
Says former BlackRock exec.
Lack of bond buyers
Is pushing mortgage rates higher.
Tech is giving up office space
More bad news for the office market.
The global housing market
Is headed for a brutal downturn
Apple ready for USA-made chips
Making the transition from Asia.
Amazon to cut thousands of jobs
It’s big tech restructuring time.
Twitter could fail soon
A Twitter engineer describes how.
THE CRYPTO MEME
Binance chief fears cascading crisis
How will the dominoes fall?
Now Binance wants to start a recovery fund
CEO wants to be the new crypto savior
Another exchange halts trading
Many more bankruptcies are coming
Here come the crypto lawsuits
Big investors say bye bye
To the crypto world.
The master mind of cyber theft
THE NEXT NORMAL
The most regretted college majors
OMG, journalism is number one!
The age of social media is ending
A story from old media, The Atlantic.
Why is college so unaffordable?
THE WAR ON CARBON
Deep geothermal could be promising
Thanks to new technologies.
New solar panels are coming
They’re going to look cool.
Koch to help build US battery plant
Where there’s subsidy, there’s profit.
Global carbon emissions hit a record
Even as China’s economy slows down.
THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION
The global nuclear energy design leader
Germany finished building first LNG port
Are more coming?
The great Russian oil switch happens
India, China and Turkey are good customers.
THE CHINA SYNDROME
$1.6T of China local state debt in trouble
As the real estate crisis trickles down.
China won’t let some Americans go home
Are they being used for negotiating leverage?
MAKING A BETTER YOU
How to be happy
According to science.
Being sensitive to what’s beautiful
Makes you appreciate the world more.
How to escape your packed schedule
And take a needed break.
HOW ABOUT A BREAK
Japanese ryokans are blissful
Why must they be so far away?
Scientist created a brand new material
That previously only existed in meteorites.
SONG OF THE WEEK
VIDEOS OF THE WEEK
Daniel Craig and Taika Watiti have fun
Making a Belvedere vodka commercial.
House of the Dragon trailer
In case you have avoided it.
New trailers this week
Get ready for the holidays!
CASTING AROUND THE PODS
Will AI improve the human condition?
Economist Tyler Cowen and Hoover Institute fellows discuss
FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
The Middle Class Is struggling
November 11, 2022
Economy Is Not in the Chips
November 4, 2022
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