Disneyland for Investors Is Over

February 3, 2023

Leyendecker Executive Search

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

From hardship comes enlightenment.
– Rachel Taylor’s character, Sam, in the film Bottle Shock

THOUGHTS FROM DOUG

January’s stock market surge is challenging the Federal Reserve. Who is going to lose face?

Russia has invaded Ukraine. With tanks, drones and missiles, they are destroying cities and killing innocent civilians. Thank goodness there for the climate change crisis, TikTok videos and the coming Super Bowl to keep us distracted. Boy, did I make a mistake not buying Meta stock a couple months ago. Why is Trump running for president again?

In September 1939, Germany invaded Poland. Two years later, in December of 1941, the US committed to both the European and Pacific wars. Russia invaded Ukraine right about a year ago. Stay tuned.

Cathie Wood is now suggesting that her ARKK fund is the new NASDAQ and that Bitcoin is going to $1.5MM in 7 years. Buyer beware?

Exxon’s 2022 profits topped $56B, and the White House screams “outrage.” Apple’s 2022 profits almost hit $100B, and no one cares that slave labor makes iPhones.

If interested, you can follow Texas’ electricity source in real time at this ERCOT website. Look at “Previous Day” to see what a 24-hour period looks like. Realize that Texas by far has the largest amount of installed wind generation and is second in the country for solar generation. It would appear we have a very long way to go to replace hydrocarbons for our electricity generation.

Attorney General Merrick Garland speaking at a news conference about the Justice Department’s antitrust lawsuit against Google parent Alphabet: “Google has engaged in exclusionary conduct that has severely weakened, if not destroyed, competition in the ad-tech industry.”

Do we really think AI is capable of creating more beauty in writing, art or music than a real human being? Why do we even want AI to try? Will we let ChatGPT review art created by AI?

The number of economic and financial pundits suggesting a recession is coming boggles my mind. Historically, only a few outlier voices scream recession. Now it seems almost everyone is, which makes me wonder: Has our data gathering and analysis improved in recent years, or is this just another instance of a herd following a meme?

Given that autocracy has dominated governments throughout civilization, is the concept of free will overrated? Yikes on that thought!

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

Consumption, the engine of the US economy
Is starting to sputter
Confirmed by credit card data
Banks worry about consumer debt
People are tapping into their 401Ks

Home prices keep falling
How low will they go?

ISM manufacturing index falls
Here comes the slow down.

Productivity is up
And wages keep rising.

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN

The Fed hikes interest rates
Following everyone’s expectations.
Europe’s ECB follows

Worker pay gains are cooling
How will the Fed play this?

Trading global commodities
Is becoming more expensive
Yet shipping rates should be falling

Chinese folks have $2.6T in savings
Could revenge consumption fuel inflation?

EVIDENCE FOR THE “R” WORD