The Half-Life of Politics

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

It is a low benefit to give me something. It is a high benefit to enable me to do something for myself.  
– Ralph Waldo Emerson

THINKING OUT LOUD

The Half-Life of Politics

A couple nights ago at dinner, I was chatting with a friend about what I should write for this week’s Thinking Out Loud. This friend suggested I should write about President Biden pardoning his son. My response was that millions of words have already been written about that!

For you readers, I don’t want to regurgitate the narratives blasted across most media these days. But a day later, the Biden pardon story has manifested as this essay.

The half-life of politics is obviously not very long.

Evidence of politics’ short half-life will quickly appear if, after taking office, Trump pardons any January 6 “offenders,” who may have tried to stage a Washington coup, or who were sort of nudged and coerced into looking like that was their intent.

If Trump pardons any of these folks, the voices from mainstream media will be so loud and universally condemning that stories about ne’er-do-well Hunter Biden will likely evaporate.

Whatever his crimes, Hunter Biden is already in a prison of sorts, a place in society that will only be visited by other ne’er-do-wells. Hunter Biden’s chances at life happiness seem quite small. No one is going to funnel Hunter any more “free money.” No one is going to buy his art. No one is going to put him on a board of directors. No one is going to invite him to swanky dinner parties with Hollywood celebs. Hunter Biden is already in a prison of his own making.

To further prove that the half-life of politics is not very long, when is the last time any of us have heard about The Clinton Foundation? Remember when all manner of countries were falling over each other to contribute to the foundation’s worthy causes? Remember when accusations of corruption swirled? Yes, The Clinton Foundation still exists, but why have we not read any stories about all the wonderful things they have been doing? Come on, New York Times! 

But the larger proof that the half-life of politics isn’t very long can be found by considering national elections over the last few decades. Since FDR’s Great Depression and World War II reign, our nation’s leadership has consistently jerked back and forth between the two parties.

Only on a few occasions has one party dominated an election, as it sort of did in this last one. But that dominance has not tended to last very long.

Trump also had a Republican majority when he first won the presidency in 2016, but two years later Democrats took over the House and stymied many of his policy objectives. President Obama had a similar experience. George W. Bush also had a similar experience. It doesn’t seem to take long for either party to lose control of Washington.

The half-life of politics may feel like riding a political roller-coaster, but our Founders set this system in place for the specific purpose of keeping any political party from gaining control for too long. The Founders knew well from experience that power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. The roller-coaster is, actually, what protects all of us.

The Dems may be licking their wounds right now, but it would be foolish to count them out. I, for one, will be watching the seemingly most outlandish of the bunch, Senator John Fetterman. Did anyone see his NY Times interview?

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

US manufacturing activity rises
But is still in contraction territory.
US services sector is slowing

US economy is getting more productive
Is this helping profits AND wages rise?

Fed Chair points to strong economy
As reason to hold back rate cuts
Hiring bounces back in November

THE LABOR VIEW

Working-class blacks are gaining ground
While working-class whites fall behind.

40% of current job seekers
Haven’t had a single interview this year

Number of workers wanting to switch jobs
Is at a 10-year high

THE NEW TRADE GAME

After Trump threatens Mexico with tariffs
Mexico makes its biggest fentanyl bust
Hmmm…isn’t that coincidental?

A panicked Trudeau visits Trump
And promises to secure the border
Prove up your promises first, Justin.
Canadian tariffs may increase gas prices
Which are currently at their lowest since 2020

Trump threatens BRICS with 100% tariffs
If they try to undermine the dollar.
The ECB is ready to negotiate

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

Europe races to up defense spending
Another Trump bump.

French government falls apart
Legacy governments continue to struggle.
Le Pen grows her power in France

Europe’s economy is stalling out
Their future’s not looking good.
Big German companies lay off 60,000
Germany’s industrial production falls

The UK approves medical suicide
Will more countries do the same?

THE GLOBAL GAME

Recent interview of Javier Milei
What’s the step-change leader thinking?

The world seems to be on fire.
WTF is going on out there?

South Korea has some problems.
Martial law called then quickly rejected?
Polarized politics are not just in the US

THE UKRAINE FIRE

Russia targets civilians with drones
And they’re doing it on purpose.

Zelensky open to a peace deal
Your move, Putin.

Germany maintains steady Ukraine support
Russia’s economy is in trouble
When will Russia fold?

THE GAZA FIRE

Israel-Hezbollah cease-fire deal teeters
Will it last through the weekend?

Free the hostages before my inauguration
Demands Trump.

What is left of Hamas
Are they quietly regrouping?

THE SLIPPERY SLOPE

Rebel forces take Aleppo
They’re on the road to Damascus
Syria’s Assad is in big trouble
Russia helps Syria fight back

European company unveils an attack drone
Can make tens of thousands a year.

Taiwan’s president visits the US
While China stews and prepares

FINANCE

BlackRock buys HPS for $12B
The investing whales get bigger.

Is Apple or Nvidia more valuable?
Or does Berkshire Hathaway trounce them both?

VCs seek fund extension terms
Is the tech bubble about to burst?

REAL ESTATE

Real estate commissions are falling
Home prices are higher
New homes are smaller
Mortgage rates are volatile
New home sales collapse in October
What’s the fix for the housing market?

IS TECH A WRECK?

The utopian techno future
Be careful what you wish for.

Hackers are after your health info
Financial and health risks rise.

Intel CEO resigns
The once mighty has fallen.
He gets $46MM for three years of work

THE CHAT ON AI

Say goodbye to your job, weathermen.
Google’s weather AI is better

For $200 a month
You can get the best OpenAI help

Trying to unseat Nvidia
Has turned into a furious contest
Is Amazon leading the AI race?

OUR GOOD FRIEND, FAILURE

Smart appliances are really dumb
What happened to KISS?

San Francisco went all in on woke.
Now it’s backtracking to survive

Business owners protest deportations
‘Cause they like cheap, illegal labor.

THE NEXT NORMAL

Is it time for government to abolish race?
What would bureaucrats and politicians do?

Wealthy Millennials love Texas and Florida
Not California or New York.

Sales of Bibles are booming
A conservative wave is growing.

THE WAR ON CARBON

US crude production
Sets another record
Will oil prices fall under Trump?

Trump could reshape global LNG
Would this increase global security?
But US LNG costs may be too high

Chevron has offshore breakthrough
Unleashing more oil and gas potential.

THE ENERGY TRANSITION

US clean energy investments
Set a record in the third quarter
Utility-scale solar booms

Nuclear is in the news!!!
The life of nuclear plants is getting longer
Big tech is nuclear’s big friend
Is the US ready for a new nuclear age?
Nuclear fusion start-up claims milestone
Will AI crack the fusion puzzle?

THE EV DREAM—OR DELUSION

India sets the global e-bus bar
Which countries will follow their success?

VW wants…needs…to cut costs.
Their labor union is not on board
100,000 workers strike
Stellantis CEO resigns
Europe’s auto industry is in crisis

China is the world’s largest auto exporter
Thanks to massive government subsidy

THE CHINA SYNDROME

GM takes $5B China hit
Time to leave China, folks?

Malaysia accuses China
Of using it to dodge US tariffs
Cheap China products piss off its allies.
They’re undermining local economies

Biden team increases chip export controls
Will they deter China’s AI chip path?
China retaliates with materials export control
China has been stockpiling chips
China claims US chips are a security risk

THE WASHING-TONE

Trump’s deportation push
May just follow a recent Biden program

Can RFK, Jr. make us healthier
By reining in big food
And big pharma?

The NIH tried to destroy him.
Now Jay Bhattacharya will lead them
Poetic justice

THE DOGE

Six things DOGE wants to change
Go get ‘em folks!

Will budget-busting billionaires succeed?
Super heroes to some, villains to others.

Biden locks in WFH for government workers
KGIF: Keep Government Inefficient Forever!
BTW, 94% of federal workers WFH

MAKING A BETTER YOU

What’s your creative type?
Click the box you think fits you.
Then take the quiz to find out

Want to increase your productivity?
Consider following Sam Altman’s advice

Want to make the holidays more fun?
Then simplify everything!

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

The history of playing cards
Now that’s interesting!

The first CRISPR treatment
Is making its way to patients

National Geographic is photo centric.
Their best photos of 2024

THE EXTRAORDINARY

Paris’s Notre Dame reopens this week
The French did something really well!

Highest-paid public employees by state
Well this is sure interesting.

Spectacular plankton images
Nature creates beautiful art.

MUSIC BOX

Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)”
Country hip hop?
Lyrics can be poetry, ya know!

Joni Mitchell’s “Both Sides Now”
By the A Cappella Academy choir
America is so beautiful!
Give us the same song, Joni!
At the 2022 Newport Folk Festival.

How about a little French fun?
“II Faut du Temps au Temps”
Makali
“Assise Là”

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

Some wisdom from Mathew McConaughey
The Modern Wisdom podcast.

Javier Milei sits down with Lex Fridman
Freedom, economics, corruption, and more.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

Endurance trailer.
Documenting Shackelton’s tragic Antarctic voyage.

Yacht Rock trailer.
The smooth sailing 70s and 80s.

The Black Sea trailer.
A sweet indie film.

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

Think you know how to make grilled cheese?
Think again

The book on sandwiches
A century of comparisons.

Perfect cacio e pepe
Every single time.

THE RANDOMS

I ain’t giving in to Father Time until he cuts me off!

Biden’s team is considering blanket pardons for people in his administration, such as Liz Cheney and Anthony Fauci. But wouldn’t this suggest that these people should be convicted, or at least investigated, of a crime?

Will the murder of UnitedHealthcare’s CEO make companies and investors think twice about profit and investment returns being their only goals? Or will they just beef up executive security and raise prices to pay for it?

How much of the stock-market wealth created since 2020 is holding up our economy? Eighty percent returns in four years is pretty darn good…uh…lucky?

Bitcoin just hit $100,000, but there’s still no way of really valuing it, unless maybe you use tarot cards.

Okay, I’m just spilling what I was thinking after seeing this article about Oracle’s founder and CEO being influenced by his significantly younger wife. It made me wonder if women might be more likely to be vain when they are young, but men can easily be vain when they are old. HEY! It’s The Randoms!

You vote with your money every day, but you vote for your president every four years. Maybe this is why personal economics is the biggest influence in most presidential elections. Thanks for that thought, reader Trey!

Recent events in Syria show us how many people in the Middle East still think war is how regional governments grow their economic, cultural and political influence. And it also shows us how much Iran’s regional influence may be crumbling, and Turkey’s influence may be expanding.

Who would have thought to threaten tariffs on Mexico and Canada if they do not begin taking proactive measures to stop drugs and illegal immigrants from crossing over our borders? No one from our legacy government, obviously.

Trump hasn’t even taken office yet, and he already seems to be getting the world to change in very MAGA ways.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Eating Crow
November 29, 2024

Living Through Step Change
November 22, 2024