What Is The Leyendecker View? Check Out the New View!

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View, New and Improved!

The longer the party lasts, the worse the hangover. Happy Holidays!
– Yours Truly

THINKING OUT LOUD

What is The Leyendecker View?

The Great Recession of 2008 and 2009 brought us to the edge of the economic abyss. Counterparty risk at all the big banks in the US and Europe was on the brink of imploding the banking system. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke had to take dramatic actions to prevent a complete meltdown of the global economy.

The list of failed institutions and “forced marriages” is long.

The government even had to bail out General Motors and Chrysler.

It was during this crisis that I had a light bulb moment. What did all the bank bosses, federal regulators and Wall Street honchos—employers of supposedly the smartest people on the planet—miss? Why did they miss our infrastructure fragility?

Previous to this crisis, I had written a few odds-and-ends essays about economy and society, but it was the crisis that motivated me to research what went wrong and who was to blame. Between 2009 and about 2016, I wrote about 80 essays on various topics. At least three of those essays remain relevant today. Their themes were:

• The larger and more complex any system gets, the more systemic risk builds. You can take that to the bank. When we’ve reached the opposite of keep it simple stupid; we have become stupid.

• The US and Western Europe were going to “turn Japanese” and follow the path of ever larger government debt to prop up their economies. We remain on that path today, over a decade after I first wrote about it.

• The US and Western Europe had gotten themselves into a “Keynesian Trap,” where more and more government stimulus and borrowing would be needed to keep our economy afloat. We’ve been operating under this “cloak of common sense” since the post-9/11 economic crisis.

This chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve shows that, in the fourth quarter of 2007—the pre-crisis year—government debt to GDP stood at about 67%. The same chart shows today’s debt to GDP to be around 120%.

The Leyendecker View started in about 2009, when I began digging into theory and practice on economy and taking a broader and deeper look at sociology. There’s the economy that influences social values and actions. And there are social values and actions that influence the economy.

By 2016, I had run out of post-Global Financial Crisis topics to research and opine on. But then when Covid hit in 2020, when we all had lots of finger-twiddling time, I came back out of the cave to restart The Leyendecker View essay.

So what is The Leyendecker View?

The Leyendecker View was inspired by the once quite popular Sunday edition of the New York Times, when, over a cup of coffee or three, many of us would enjoy perusing a broad range of subjects on a slow Sunday morning.

The Leyendecker View is, of course, my view of the world and encompasses topics that stoke my curiosity. And, as you have seen, the topics are broad, ranging from economy to geopolitics to sociology to well-being to entertainment.

The Leyendecker View has three goals: to help readers see the world more clearly, to help readers improve their lives and to entertain.

The Leyendecker View has a conservative bent because conservative behavior is rarely destructive. And because, for some time, I’ve been watching more people move toward a conservative lean to counterbalance the progressive pull to the left—a pull so extreme that it has long since tipped over to diminishing returns.

The Leyendecker View takes a skeptical lens to the narratives of the mainstream media, government and giant companies seeking to control our minds and our pockets. These institutions are less concerned with our well-being as they are with their own power and economic control. 

But the newsletter needs improvement, so we’re trying out a new format this week. As many readers have suggested, too many of the linked articles are behind a paywall. This week, you’ll notice improvement there, too, to the extent we can improve this.

We hope you readers will find the new format pleasing!

ECONOMIC NEWS

The stock market is not the economy, right? Industrial production is weak, layoffs may be rising and the lower income are struggling greatly. Lower natural resource prices point to a slower economy. We seem to be living in an economy dependent on the inflating value of financial assets like stocks and homes, and now crypto. Keep the free money flowing, Washington!!!

ECONOMY
Fed reduces rate but sees fewer 2025 cuts
Q3 GDP revised up to 3.1%
SoftBank to invest $100B in US
Chocolate may get a lot more expensive
Small business optimism pops
Why America’s economy is soaring

LABOR
Companies mandating RTO grow slower
Amazon Teamsters ready to strike
Trump will fire federal workers who don’t return to office
Our workforce needs a data overhaul
Workers are not happy about their pay
Stress is hammering young workers

BUSINESS

America’s economy is still the envy of the world.

McKinsey must pay $650MM obstruction fine
GM is an also-ran in China
FedEx to spin off freight unit

FINANCE
Repeat after me three times: We’re not in a financial asset bubble. We’re not in a financial asset bubble. We’re not in a financial asset bubble.

The stock market is crack cocaine for men
How the mother of all bubbles pops
They don’t think Bitcoin is a fad anymore
Bankers need drugs to get through the day
Luxury brands consider crypto payments

REAL ESTATE
Apartment rents are down. No they’re up. Huh?

The Fed cuts rates, mortgage rates rise
Apartment rents are declining
Vacancy rate on upward trajectory
Apartment rents are climbing
Kick back in modernist Copenhagen houseboat

TECH
We’re taking over the world whether you like it or not!

Is Michael Dell the real wizard of tech?
Your phone is likely infected with spyware
The global chip war

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
No, no, no, we’re taking over the world no matter what anyone says!

Databricks, the next hot AI company, raises $10B
Ex Google CEO Eric Schmidt worried about AI
Google’s AI video generator is the best
AI emissions set to skyrocket
AI’s got an insatiable need for energy and water
AI poses threat to electric grid

ENERGY TRANSITION
There is no production, no economy, no life without energy. But there is no energy creation without waste. More expensive energy will not help economies or the average voter. There’s no perfect world, just the aspiration to always get cheaper, better and cleaner. 

Tesla fires up Corpus Christi lithium plant
Biden team report says LNG is BAD
China remains king of coal
There’s a glut of LNG tankers
Time to reinvigorate US uranium mining

THE NATION

DOGE wants to fire the back end of the bureaucrat bell curve. Sounds great, but who is going to hire those people? Maybe China will in order to get state secrets.

THE WASHING-TONE
The insiders are still in charge. But outsiders are about to take over Washington. Things are gonna change for sure.

Budget bill on shaky ground
Government shutdown looms
Could Elon Musk become Speaker of the House?
Biden makes $15B loan to PGE
And $9.6B loan to Ford
US prepares more China chip restrictions
Biden oversaw largest immigrant surge in history

THE DOGE
Good luck getting rid of the government. Can you make it smaller and more efficient? Good luck with that, too.

Musk prefers drones to F-35s
How Congress can ensure DOGE does good
Should NPR be on the chopping block?
Is firing bureaucrats the solution?

THE RFK RIF
Common food gets us fat and sick. And the medical infrastructure benefits.

Is it time to break up big medicine?
Medicare advantage is a cost cow
Why we should eliminate private insurance

GEOPOLITICS

SOCIAL TRENDS
We learn from failure. We change after making mistakes. We seek the newest trends to be cool.

Teenagers are big on abstinence
21% of US adults are illiterate
Legal weed goes up in smoke
America’s growing resentment of capitalism

EUROPE
The European economy looks like Kodak after digital cameras became ubiquitous. How can Europe compete in the future without a massive overhaul of bureaucracy, regulation and uninspired workers? Can they bring Milei over after he’s finished turning around Argentina?

French culture gets KO’d
German government collapses
Germany’s economy is kaput
What’s behind Germany’s economic malaise?
German electricity prices soar
Can Europe’s unity survive?

GLOBAL
Political instability is showing up all over the world, with France, Germany, Canada, the UK and, of course, the Middle East all facing an uncertain future. It appears that politics and government are in the early stages of step change, brought on by the expanding influence of technology and AI. Are we entering a new economic and political era?

Yuan passes up yen in global trade settlements
Nissan and Honda discuss merger
Housing affordability crisis goes global
Argentina exits recession
Argentina’s economy grows 3.9%

UKRAINE
Putin has recently ratcheted up the aggressiveness of his strategy even more. Is he setting the stage for a peace deal through face-saving territorial gains and possibly keeping Ukraine out of NATO? The negotiations to end this war should be interesting.

Ukraine assassinates Russian general
Putin issues more missile threats
Russian oil is seeping into mainstream markets
Europe tries to limit Russian oil smuggling
Are Russian economy’s days numbered?

MIDDLE EAST
Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, Syrian rebels, Assad, Iran…What a mess this part of the world is in right now.

US airstrikes hit Houthi targets
Israel hits Houthi sites in Yemen
Is Turkey about to invade Syria?
New Syrian leader wants Israel to back up
Stopping Iranian arms flow is a priority
Turkey objects to Israel’s Golan Heights plan
Russia tries to salvage its Syria assets

WAR CREEP
With war happening in two different parts of the world, with a new China-West cold war, with an unstable Putin and with Western economies in need of an economic boost, could a broader war be in our near future?

UK, Italy and Japan team up for jet fighter project
Lasers can find buried landmines
US telcos struggle with Chinese hackers
Asian arms spending continues to grow
Kim Jung Un wants to prepare for war

CHINA
China’s export-based economy is a threat to global deflation. Their domestic economy needs lots more stimulus. Their heavy-handed governing has citizens unhappy. Their global geopolitical ambitions are great. Is today’s China the new Roman Empire?

Huawei’s new phone chip is not impressive
Unrest grows along with economic malaise
The rise and fall of Chinese manufacturing
China needs to be an export giant
China’s property slump not over

MAKING A BETTER YOU

MIND
Stress is the biggest poison of them all.

The 2024 science book of the year
Taxi drivers have reduced risk of Alzheimer’s
The philosophy of happiness in 10 minutes

BODY
Stay active, always!

The fluoride story
Can weight loss drugs fix chronic disease?
Your reusable water bottle is probably filthy
Turning human waste into medicine is here

FUN STUFF

THE EXTRAORDINARY
The world of holy moly!

A new way to map the brain
The Milky Way isn’t a special galaxy
Altermagnetism could soon change the world

MUSIC THAT FOUND US
Billie Elish does a Tiny Desk Concert

Bola Sete and Vince Guaraldi.
“Star Song” from 1963.
Badass bossa nova.
Guaraldi wrote the Charlie Brown/Peanuts music
How about an encore?
“Otra Vez”

WORTH A WATCH
The Brutalist trailer.
Oscar worthy.

The Carry On trailer
Channeling Die Hard?

The fabled Christmas truce of 1914
A pause in the WWI trenches.

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN
More Christmas recipes…

Million dollar beef tenderloin
Ultimate beef Wellington
City ham
Garlic mashed potatoes
Creamed spinach
Brussels sprouts with balsamic
Cauliflower and goat cheese gratin
Ultimate mac and cheese
Cheesy scalloped potatoes
Rosemary shortbreads
Red wine poached pears
Eggnog creme brulee
No-roll bûche de Noël

THE RANDOMS

Republicans should realize that Trump will not “fix” everything in Washington. Given Washington bureaucratic scale and inertia, it’s going to be hard to significantly change deep-rooted agencies with a natural survival instinct, not to mention the enormous political and legal weapons at their disposal.

Interesting that we live in the age of ubiquitous information and instantaneous communication, yet there is less trust in media and government.

What are the odds that unemployment will grow as AI continues to replace lower-skilled information management jobs? Are most government jobs about managing information? What are the odds of growing permanent unemployment?

Which giant tech company, or groups of companies, is AI going to destroy? Where’s the global giant that will not survive the AI era?

Hey DOGE, check out this message I got from our health insurance provider: “Based on guidance released by the federal government, applicable group health plans and health insurance issuers offering group and individual health insurance coverage must submit a Gag Clause Prohibition Compliance Attestation to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services no later than Dec. 31, 2024.” WTF is this? Elon and Vivek, can you make this stupid stuff go away?

The easiest way to learn something is to start by saying “I don’t know.” After you admit not knowing, your mind becomes highly fertile ground for learning.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Thoughts on Inflation
December 13, 2024

The Half-Life of Politics
December 6, 2024