The Labor Shortage Looks Permanent

July 15, 2002

We are in the middle of the first global energy crisis.
– IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol

THOUGHTS FROM DOUG

If GDP goes negative in Q2, what are the odds of the whole year going negative?

Once oil prices fall, how long before inflation also falls?

Taiwan’s government has purchased public equities to stop their stock market fall. Is this something we could expect from other market-based economies?

Over the last decade, 95% of greenhouse emissions growth has come from emerging markets and developing economies. Going forward, it is anticipated that these countries will account for 98% of global population growth and 90% of new middle class household growth. Will these countries join the movement to destroy hydrocarbons?

An over-the-counter (OTC) birth control pill may soon be available in the US. It’s already available OTC in 100+ countries. Why has the US been lagging here? Why are Western countries in general behind the curve on OTC birth control pills that could prevent unwanted pregnancies and avoid abortions? Here’s the map of the countries that offer non-prescription, OTC birth control pills.

Given that the FBI and MI6 recently warned Western companies that China is stealing their technology and trying to undercut their businesses, why is the Biden administration talking about cutting Chinese tariffs? Even Biden’s commerce secretary suggests that lifting tariffs won’t improve inflation.

All currencies are the domain of sovereign nations. If crypto is beyond the domain of sovereign nations, then it depends on an orderly global economic system to survive. Right now that global economic system is unraveling.

There are about 1.5 billion vehicles in the world. Once they’re all EVs, what are we going to do with all their used up batteries? Is California’s problem with old solar panels a canary in the coal mine?

The wisdom of the late George Carlin: “Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.”

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

Inflation up to 9.1%
Rent rise a big influence
Inflation hits food staples the hardest
Real hourly earnings keep decreasing
People are starting to get laid off

The labor shortage looks permanent
If so, wages may just have to rise.

Small businesses are depressed
NFIB index keeps falling and falling.

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN 

Penguins go on a hunger strike
Take that cheaper fish away!

Freight rates are starting to fall
Is this a sign inflation is peaking?

Strong dollar helps with inflation
I’ve been preaching that for a while.
But it doesn’t help with company profits

THE LABOR VIEW

Dissecting the Great Resignation
From the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The mining industry needs workers
To operate the robots.

Workers aren’t going to the office
Big city employers are in a tough spot.

Quit your job every ten years
Would it be good for your career?

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

Euro at 20-year low
They need to raise interest rates.

How to be green in Europe
Export your trash to Turkey

France wants more global oil production
French industry to burn oil for electricity
As nuclear power output drops significantly

PLAYING WITH FIRE

Putin threatens the West
Blinken reproves China over Russia
Is Russia running out of troops?
India gets a pass on buying Russian missiles
Nord Stream 1 closed for “maintenance”
Ukrainian entrepreneurs turn to war business
Iran to supply Russia with drones
Brazil to purchase Russian oil products
Putin works the deal with Iran and Turkey
Lego pulls out of Russia
Russia’s account surplus at record high
New weapons helping Ukraine
Ukraine grain export deal may be close

GLOBAL

IMF downgrades global growth Time for the first global recession?

Sri Lanka is a mess
Did ESG cause the Sri Lanka crisis?
Are more such revolts to come?

India to become most populous country
Will overtake China in 2023.
Global population to hit 8B in November
But growth is slowing globally
Very cool video on how we got to 8B

THE FINANCE WORLD

Bank earnings are falling
Loan concerns are on their minds.

Liquidity is top investment priority
Cash is king as the world unravels.

The end of easy money
What will it mean?
Is private equity headed for a fall?

THE CRYPTO MEME

God created crypto
And converted some atheists along the way.

If crypto addiction consumes you
There’s a rehab program for it.

Wall Street avoided the crypto meltdown
But individual investors didn’t.

TECHNOLOGY

VC fundraising about to slow
Busted tech deals are coming.

Could the EV revolution collapse?
Vanity Fair opines on EVs. Vanity Fair???

26 consecutive days in the air

Solar-powered plane with no pilot.

THE NEXT NORMAL   

The age of distracti-pression
Has technology done this to us?

Free money doesn’t help people
According to a new study.

Why is US life expectancy so low?
For several not good reasons.

THE WAR ON CARBON

95% of last decade’s emissions growth
Came from emerging markets.

California has a solar panel problem
Spent panels leach toxins in landfills.

India coal imports hit record
They can’t live without it.

Climate change anxiety
Is a white person’s affliction.

THE EV DREAM

Forced labor in China’s EV battery biz
Slaves help create a greener world.

An EV squeeze is coming
Minerals can’t meet projected demand.

An EV for everyone
Is just not realistic.

THE CHINA SYNDROME

More Covid lockdowns in China
Why are they so paranoid?

Lend, lend, lend
China’s strategy to grow their economy.
As home buyers stop paying mortgages

China, the cyber espionage giant
Is everyone else playing catch-up?

THE WASHING-TONE

The rising populists are competent
Are Democrats wasting their time on Trump?

Congress rejects Biden’s defense budget
They want a bigger budget

Biden’s team lacks business experience
Here’s the breakdown
What do they know about economy?

MAKING A BETTER YOU

To be more objective
Look through the eyes of others.

The magic of a little danger
To be happier, be brave, not reckless.

Dilbert creator’s life advice
Some great insights here!

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

What it takes to be wealthy in the US
Cool infographic from Visual Capitalist.

The NASA hero
Who saved the James Webb Telescope.
The first images are here and amazing!
A cosmologist explains the photos and context

The UK is mapping ancient trees
They have lots of them.

SONG OF THE WEEK

“Redemption Song”
Bob Marley
Lyrics are poetry, you know.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

2022 Pamplona running of the bulls
Nuts! Don’t you just love it?

A brief history of SPAM
The world depends on it!

A totem pole reawakens the spirit
Imagine a world without art.

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

The New Founders America Needs
Bari Weiss’s rousing speech to students at the new University of Austin.

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

Grilled oysters with spicy tarragon butter
It’s hard to stop eating these!

The best state for beer lovers
Time for a vacation!

Yet another supply crisis grows
This one in Dijon mustard.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Follow EU Climate Rules or Else!
July 8, 2022

Fed Chair Admits a Bombshell
July 1, 2022