The Great Unretirement

October 21, 2022

Politics is the thief of joy.
– El Gato Malo

THOUGHTS FROM DOUG

Will the UK meltdown prove to be that first domino in a chain of events?

Will climate change policies destroy economies before climate change destroys the earth, which of course it never will? Europe is a case in point today. They are in a mess because of their climate change policies.

Since it takes fewer workers to make EVs, what jobs are the displaced auto workers going to get? And since EVs require many fewer parts and much less maintenance, what jobs are those displaced workers going to get?

A majority of Americans now think aliens are real. What does this tell us about our culture today?

An old friend recently came up with a zinger on ESG: “Virtue has low utility. We can’t eat it. It won’t keep us warm or cool. It won’t move our freight. The main purpose virtue serves is to confirm our overabundance. The price of choice is low today, but it will increase soon.”

By the way, this old friend didn’t want me to divulge his name for fear of the politically correct mob reprisals. How revealing of our times is that?

At today’s interest rates, lots of institutional investors will be buying more bonds. This will leave less capital available for equities and alternative assets like private equity, venture capital and hedge funds.

Twenty countries are asking that $685B of their debt be forgiven so they can make climate change investments. Since they are all emerging markets countries, how much of that new investment do you think will end up stolen by their political leaders?

Will wages ever catch up to rising inflation?

Inflation adjusted annual stock market gains since 1980 have been 8.09%. Inflation adjusted annual wage gains for middle-wage earners from 1979 to 2017 was 0.04%. Draw your own conclusions.

Will global defense companies be the next investment “darling”?

It may not be a good idea to think the coming/current recession will play out like the ones we’ve recently experienced.

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

CEOs see mild US recession coming
But they think Europe is in big trouble.
Bezos says “batten down the hatches”

The death of the starter home
Can kids buy their parents’ basement?
Average home size by state
And average price per square foot.

China’s export engine loses steam
As the world slows and de-globalizes.
Cargo ships are lying idle

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN

Everyone to pay higher electricity costs
US folks subsidize Europe and others.

Mississippi River at lowest level in 30 years
This increases transportation costs.

Stronger dollar increases global inflation
The dollar is the global trade currency.
Expensive dollar threatens global economy

THE LABOR VIEW

Killing the commute serves some good
It’s saving workers 60MM hours.

Intel plans big job cuts
Tech canary in the coal mine?

The great unretirement
Prime age workers
Are returning to the workforce

GLOBAL

Food piles up at ports
As countries struggle to pay for it.

India has their own 5G technology
They now want to export it.

2022’s high-growth economies
Not everyone is in economic trouble.

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

Europe may have enough gas in storage
But governments don’t control it.
Germany agrees to a gas price cap

Is Europe about to deindustrialize?
It takes cheap energy to make stuff.

Giant demonstrations in Paris
Get rid of inflation, now!
Inflation up “only” 9.9% in Europe

EU countries can’t agree
On a go-forth energy policy.

THE UK IN CRISIS

Inflation at 10.1% in the UK
Is the interconnected world at risk?

The British have a big mortgage problem
Mortgage rates reset often, and they’re rising.

UK backtracks policy changes
Truss resigns
UK pensions load up on cash

PLAYING WITH FIRE

Sabotage is Russia’s new strategy
Targeting water, power and heat infrastructure

For folks who don’t make Putin happy
This seems to be their fate

Russia’s demographic problem
Is going to get worse
Is Putin about to destroy Russia?

WILL THE FIRE SPREAD?

China ready to seize Taiwan
“Very soon,” says US Secretary of State.

Iranian drones are in hot demand
22 countries are trying to get them.
Time for more sanctions on Iran?

US may sell $1B+ of arms to Taiwan
China is not happy for sure.

A NEW WORLD ORDER?

China opens a police station in Nigeria
Can we open one in Mexico?

Australia and Japan to sign defense accord
Getting the “good guys” together.
As Australia prepares to build missiles
And Japan readies to arm itself big time

Japan to supply India defense products
First step after 2015 agreement.

THE FINANCE WORLD

The no-leverage leverage buyouts
Are starting to happen.

What stock market bottoms look like
The last twelve market declines.

KKR likes the Japanese yen
It’s at a 32-year low.

Harvard sees write downs coming
Are the easy money days behind us?

REAL ESTATE

Apartment construction at 50-year high
Another real estate glut coming?
Are we in a rental crisis?

What’s behind the big rent rise?
One company’s algorithm may be the cause.

Mortgage applications at 25-year low
As housing starts keep falling
When will the Fed reverse course?

TECHNOLOGY

CIOs’ top worry is cybersecurity
It likely won’t get any easier.

Online shopping not proving resilient
The pandemic did not really change behavior.

The world will trash 5.3B phones this year
How is that possible?

THE CRYPTO MEME

The rise and fall of Bitcoin culture
Is it over yet?

Crypto hackers having record year
$3B and counting has been stolen.
Have you been “pig butchered”?

Bots are front-running crypto investors
One more nail in the coffin?

THE NEXT NORMAL

The next hot sport
May be pillow fighting

A pill could extend a dog’s life
Is such a pill for humans around the corner?

Public transportation has a big problem
If San Fran’s situation is any indication.

THE WAR ON CARBON

Was the jet stream responsible for summer heat wave?
One more climate influence we don’t understand.

Jupiter is experiencing a massive heat wave
Is there a connection with ours?

Investors going big on net-zero
$7.1T big. Think it will change the climate?

THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION

UK parliament votes FOR fracking
The energy reality check time is now.

US winter heating to be costly
Heating oil, especially so.

Diesel hits chaos mode
Can trucks run on wind and sun?

“We don’t want natural gas around here!”
New Englanders could freeze this winter

THE EV DREAM

Is faster EV charging coming?
Scientists may have cracked the code.

Foxconn, the future EV giant
They have high ambitions.

Don’t take your Tesla to the beach
The salt could cause a battery fire.

THE WASHING-TONE

Washington insiders gamed the market
Regulators had a trading advantage.

Are democrats losing the black male vote?
And are their election expectations too high?

THE CHINA SYNDROME

NATO and China have a confrontation
Tempers flare at Iceland conference.

Tempers flare at an Iceland conference.

China fails to report Q3 GDP
Which numbers need manipulating?

Prepare for “great struggles” ahead
Xi says to the CCP.
China is ready to stand their ground

MAKING A BETTER YOU

The hidden force holding you back
Find it, get rid of it.

The joy of short novels
Get your reading habit back.

How to be successful
From the CEO of OpenAI.

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

The multi-billion dollar nightmare
California’s bullet train experiment.

The rattiest cities in the US
Who knew Orkin did an annual list?

Yes, mosquitoes love some people more
Science has proved it.

SONG OF THE WEEK

“So What”
The incredible Miles Davis caught live.
No lyrics here, just ultimate cool.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

Always make a scene.
Here comes the Babylon movie.

Empire of Light
Academy winners going for it!

Academy winners going for it!

Robots and AI sorting trash
Is it scalable?

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

Ray Dalio on the near future
It’s a dark future with a bright ending.

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

Sweet potatoes are a nutrient-dense food
Here are 7 great recipes.

It’s fall.
Time to make pumpkin bread!

The best pub grub in London
In case you’re headed there.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Manufacturing Employment Is Rising
October 14, 2022

GE Struggles With Wind Business
October 7, 2022