The Grand Experiment

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

I don’t spend my time pontificating on high-concept things. I spend my time solving engineering and manufacturing problems.
– Elon Musk

FAVORITE READS OF THE WEEK

The Wisdom of Harry Potter
Millions of new adults understand honor.

MUST LISTEN OF THE WEEK

What happened to the energy transition?
Energy sage Daniel Yergin tells us.

MUST WATCH OF THE WEEK

Venezuela’s fight for freedom
The Nobel Prize winner speaks.

THINKING OUT LOUD

The United States Is a Grand Experiment
Expecting order misses the point

Throughout most of human history, the overwhelming majority of people have lived under some form of autocracy. Kings, emperors, sultans, and warlords have ruled with few checks on their power, and ordinary people had little to no say in political life. There are, of course, a handful of historical exceptions, like Athens in the 5th century BC, the Roman Republic, the city republics of Venice and Florence. They were important precursors to modern democratic thought but were tiny in scale, fragile in practice, and exclusive to a minority of the population. Even the Roman Republic, often praised as a model of self-government, was ultimately controlled by elites and devolved into an empire.

By the 17th and 18th centuries, cracks were forming in Europe’s old autocratic order. The Dutch Republic had shown that a nation could thrive without a king. England’s Glorious Revolution curbed monarchical power and affirmed Parliament’s authority. Enlightenment thinkers across the continent were articulating new principles of liberty, natural rights, and self-rule. These shifts planted the intellectual and political seeds of modern democracy.

Meanwhile, Britons began fleeing to the New World seeking religious freedom and liberty. When frustrations about taxation without representation reached fever pitch, the colonists waged war and won, leaving leaders of a brand-new country to establish a government. Determined not to repeat history’s mistakes, the Founders created a representative constitutional republic—the first of its kind. They separated powers to prevent devolution into a monarchy and built in layers to protect minority rights and avoid the mob rule of a pure democracy.

Today, only about 29 countries qualify as true liberal democracies (including republics like the US and Ireland, constitutional monarchies like the UK and Japan, unitary presidential republic like Chile, and a few others), where elections are not only free and fair but also constrained by rule of law, civil liberties, and checks on executive power. They cover about 668 million people, or barely 8% of the world’s population. Most of humanity still lives under autocracy or governments that are democracies in name but hollow in practice.

Against this backdrop, the United States stands out as one of history’s great outliers. From its founding, the United States declared itself a “grand experiment” in self-government. The Framers of the Constitution knew that unchecked authority leads to tyranny, and they designed a system to force debate and compromise. They understood that divided power would introduce a kind of instability and unpredictability into government—but this was by design. Aware that authoritarian regimes and absolute monarchies leave no room for open discourse and inevitably induce uprisings, they crafted a system with built-in room for trial, error, and improvement against a constantly changing country and world.

The Founders traded the suppression of tyranny for the turbulence of freedom. Mistakes, conflicts, and reversals are not signs that the American experiment is failing. Instead, they are signs that we are continuing to learn and adapt. They are signs that the system is working. When people expect perfect order or smooth governance, they misunderstand the essence of freedom and representative government. Every protest, every messy compromise is part of the experiment unfolding in real time.

This is not to say we should strive for constant turbulence. While it is a feature and not a bug, the goal should remain finding the solutions that maintain forward movement and a government that functions more often than not. We should let every moment of turbulence remind us how rare and fragile the American experiment is. Ours is not the resting state of societies but a deliberate, ongoing act of conscious choice and practice, a system that requires our understanding and active, good-faith participation.

Now if only our broad citizenry understood how our system really works and how vital it is to protect, not destroy, it.

THE RANDOMS

As the axiom goes, we learn more from our failures than our successes. So if we prevent mistakes, aren’t we also preventing intelligence?

Is it a red flag when half of lower-wage working class Americans are now investing in the stock market?

Over the period of globalization (1981-2021), cheaper labor costs were the primary driver of economic growth. Over the emerging period of AI development, cheaper energy costs might be the driver of economic growth.

What are we going to do when companies grow profits while reducing the number of workers? Great for those company investors, but what about the displaced labor?

The freedom to create art emerges when an economy is so prosperous that people can spend more time focused on wants rather than needs. So when we see a large artist community protests our president, might it suggest the US has been bathed in prosperity for too long? Has this cushioned too many people from the mistakes that teach grit and perspective?

From a wealth accumulation standpoint, sometimes average performers are at the right place, right time and get rich. But brilliant performers who are at the right place, right time get filthy rich. 

Then there are brilliant people who never make it to the right place, right time and are too brilliant to fit into a company of average performance. My handyman is one of those.

Is there morality in the animal kingdom? Why is there morality in the human world? Does this make us superior to animals? If so, then why do we kill each other for “stuff” and ideology? Makes you wonder how different we really are from animals.

ECONOMIC NEWS

Economy

The US debt clock
Kraft CEO says consumers are in the doldrums
The Fed cuts rates as expected
Consumer confidence keeps slipping
CA proposes 5% billionaires’ tax

Labor

Income growth is slowing
UPS cuts 48,000 jobs
Amazon to lay off 30,000
The $100K-a-year maid jobs

Health Care

Dr. Grok, our best new physician
US to speed up generic drug approvals
Florida’s Obamacare fraud

The Lone Star

JPM invests in Texas Stock Exchange
Is San Antonio the next boom city?
Housing boom threatens Hill Country aquifers
Houston company has compelling hypersonic engine

BUSINESS

Finance

PIK growth is an ominous sign
Are private credit ratings inflated?
Is a private credit unraveling coming?
Private credit now loans to own
BlackRock credit gets defrauded
AI says private equity is meh

Real Estate

Renters have the upper hand
America needs more bedrooms
The YIMBYs are winning

Tech

Cities are putting robots to work
Cheaper chips around the corner
How humans will manage robots

Google

Google revenue soars
Google works to open nuclear plant
Google makes big quantum computing step

AI

OpenAI restructures for profit
Qualcomm challenges Nvidia
Send your kids to Cal State
The world isn’t ready for AI

Energy Transition

Bill Gates reverses his apocalyptic climate views
How fossil fuels make earth more livable
EVs are not good at holding their value
US stalls global shipping carbon tax

THE NATION

The Washing-Tone

Communists cosponsored “No Kings” day
Nuclear energy coming with US/Japan support
The new big beautiful ballroom donor list
The rich guy wanting to pay the military

Trade

South Korea to invest big in the USA
Trump and Xi agree to yearlong truce
Trump is a Japan fan
Singapore, canary in the trade coal mine

Social Trends

The golden age of stupidity
YouTube just ate TV
Rethinking civilization
The best small towns in each state

GEOPOLITICS

Global

No one cares about the Sudan civil war
The secret networks smuggling drugs into the US
Milei triumphs in Argentina
Japan’s Gen Z unplugs

Europe

UK oil refineries could be shut down
The Dutch go left
EU prepares to water down climate rules
Europe loses big in rare earth wars
France and Spain push their self-interests

Ukraine

Young Ukrainian men flee
Russia ramps up its offense
Putin keeps flaunting nuclear power
Ukraine struggles to meet electricity needs

Middle East

Hezbollah is re-arming
Hamas scares away international peacekeepers
As they play macabre game with dead hostages
Israel back on the attack
US drones monitor ceasefire
International coalition strengthens Syrian presence

China

China tries to cover up mining disaster

AI toys are the rage in China

China purges several military leaders

War Creep

US supports South Korea nuclear sub building
Trump orders more nuclear testing
Turkey to buy UK fighter jets
Trump seeks new style of warships

MAKING A BETTER YOU

Mind
Get more quiet time.

Trip ideas if you’re burned out
Our brains on sleep
Social ties help you live longer

Body
Get more outside time.

The pitfalls of sleepmaxing
What can your toilet tell you?
How many steps a day do you need?

FUN STUFF

Let your hair down, baby! Even if you’re all alone.

The Extraordinary

Ever seen red lightning?
Rediscovering the meaning of life
Scientists find 112MM-year-old time capsule

Music That Found Us

Oh, those 1960s!
The Monkees “Last Train to Clarksville”
Elvis Presley’s “Are You Lonesome Tonight”
The Mamas & the Papas “California Dreamin’”
Sly & the Family Stone, “Everyday People”
Procol Harum, “A Whiter Shade of Pale”

Worth a Watch

Kathryn Bigelow’s scary A House of Dynamite.
A real presidential assassination,Death by Lightning.
The mind-bending Lazarus.

The Yum Yums

Let’s pesto out, baby!
Basic basil pesto
Pistachio pesto
Artichoke basil pesto
Trapanese pesto
Sicilian pesto
Sun-dried tomato pesto
Arugula pesto
Roasted red pepper pesto

PARTING THOUGHTS

By three methods we may learn wisdom. First by reflection, which is noblest. Second by imitation, which is easiest. And the third by experience, which is the bitterest.
– Confucius

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