Has the War in Space Already Started?

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

It is possible today we found our Enron.
– Investor Michael Burry on the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank

THOUGHTS FROM DOUG

With the close of Silicon Valley Bank, it seems obvious that tech is now in a gold-rush-bust market. 

As I said in a recent TLV, the duration between the last two tech bubble bursts, 1999/2000 and 2022/2023, was a bit over 20 years. So how do investors play the tech space now?

Job growth has beaten forecasts for the last 10 months. After today’s announcement, make that 11 months in a row. Expect rates to keep rising.

If India is going to be the next China, and if the US will be competing with Russia and China for India’s attention, then Nikki Haley may be the right presidential candidate at the right time.

On Bari Weiss’s recent podcast episode, Nikki Haley, the former US ambassador to the UN, called the UN a “farce.”

The thing about history is that…it’s history. It’s behind us. It wasn’t perfect. We made mistakes.  And today? Well, we’re still making history.

Is this how the madness of crowds works? Thank you, Kramer and Seinfeld.

Hundreds and thousands of years ago, humanity lived in tribal family units. Now 50% of 20-somethings live at home.What’s the new tribal future going to look like?

I guess when the price of oil goes back up, we will see how it influences inflation.

Here’s a chart on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet from 2003 to today. Notice what it looked like before 2008 compared to after 2008. If you were to project into the future, let’s say 10 years from now, what do you think the chart will look like? Maybe the more important question is: Why did the Federal Reserve have to blow up its balance sheet?

Is the Federal Reserve about to play the role of a parent who has to tell the children “Sorry, but I’m not supporting your lifestyle anymore. It’s time for you to go learn how to pay for yourself”?

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

Are consultants to blame
For our economic and global challenges?

Higher interest rates
Are hurting US manufacturing

Attendance down 30% at Six Flags
Is the leisure economy dying?

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN

Fed’s favored inflation gauge
Accelerated in January
Rates may need to rise more and faster
NY Fed says inflation to be sticky

Companies try to maintain fat profits
By selling “premiumization.”
Yet only the rich can afford a new car
While inflation squeezes lower-income shoppers

THE LABOR VIEW

Job gains beat expectations
The Fed won’t like this.

Hospitality, the hottest job market
What does this say about our economy?

Gen X female executives 
Are exhausted and headed for the exits

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

EU tells member states
They can match US green subsidies

Strikes in France cripple business
Macron struggles to make labor reforms.

Why is there a vegetable shortage
In the UK?

GLOBAL

High-security biolabs multiply—in number and risk
There’s no universal way to regulate them.

Mexican peso hits 5-year high
Maybe Mexico is the next China?

India is wary of China
But will they align with the West?

A stronger dollar
Leads to a weaker global economy

PLAYING WITH FIRE

Russia hammers Ukraine
With hypersonic missiles.

Has the war in space
Already started?

Russia’s weaponization of metals
Could lead to scarcity and inflation.

THE NEW COLD WAR

Australia to buy US nuclear subs
Arming up is the new trend.

Xi calls out the US
Blames the US for China’s troubles.
And claims US may create “catastrophe”
While China keeps stealing our IP

THE FINANCE WORLD

Regulators close Silicon Valley Bank
They’re taking it over.
The banking sector takes a blow

The fastest growing alternative assets.
Here’s the CAGR from 2012

Is there finally an alternative to stocks?
What would this mean for the stock market?

REAL ESTATE

Mortgage rates above 7%
Home affordability sinks

Business hotels at risk of default
Less corporate travel these days.

Office occupancy finally breaks 50%
But it’s coming back very slowly.
While landlords stop paying mortgages

TECHNOLOGY

The cloud is too expensive
CIOs are trying to reduce costs.

The VC whales
Are backing off investing

The making chips at home ambition
Has a labor shortage to deal with

THE CHAT ON CHAT

ChatGPT and regenerative AI
Might have a big copyright problem.

Chatbots are not the next crypto
They are real tools, not speculative investments.

Hackers turn chatbots into scammers
Well, that didn’t take long.

THE NEXT NORMAL

Kids’ screen time is destroying them
According to this French neuroscientist.

There may be a good use for virtual reality
It’s as good as therapeutic psychedelics.

50% of 20-somethings live with parents
What’s going to change this picture?

THE WAR ON CARBON

Could batteries last much longer?
Maybe so, after this breakthrough

A new US nuclear reactor gets turned on
First new plant since 2016.

The world should build less
Suggests this revered Japanese architect.

THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION

Small modular nuclear reactors
Can they be commercialized?

Geothermal wells
Might be a battery solution

Forget peak oil demand
Global oil demand hits record.

THE EV DREAM

GM’s EV push stalls
After CEO cheer-led the effort
And they look to shed white collar jobs

Tesla cuts prices again
Is there an EV demand problem?

China snatches an African lithium mine
While the West is distracted by…

THE CHINA SYNDROME

China tech is being creative
In getting around US chip restrictions.
The Dutch restrict chip exports, too

China’s golden shares
A back door to nationalizing industry.

Chinese exports fall again
Cities are trillions in debt
Real estate market still a big problem
Is China’s economic golden age over?

THE WASHING-TONE

Biden throws down his budget cards
Let the negotiations begin.

Proposed Senate bill, the Restrict Act
Paves the way to ban foreign technologies.

How do we regulate AI?
We really don’t yet know.

MAKING A BETTER YOU

Want to increase your productivity?
Here are some good tips

Marc Andreessen quit drinking alcohol
Now he’s mad as hell about doing so.

One of the very best workouts
Is walking

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

How the octopus got so smart
‘Cause we need to know.

Seed planting post forest fire
Can now be done with drones

The most visited US parks & memorials
Gotta go, or stay away from the crowds?

SONG OF THE WEEK

“It’s a Man’s Man’s Man’s World”
Luciana Pavaratti and James Brown, WTF?
Lyrics are poetry, ya know.

Bonus song of the week.
The “Cheese Tax” song
Don’t let your dog hear it.

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

How to access your creativity
Andrew Huberman interviews music legend Rick Rubin.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

US speed skater, Jordan Stolz
Wins three gold medals at world games.

Super fast insect urination
Yeah, you read that right.

Talk about a house of cards
Wowsville on this dude’s effort.

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

What’s your favorite BORG flavor?
The college kids’ new drink.

The fried fish sandwich
Is really yummy.

Shepherd’s pie
How can you not love it?

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

We’re All Guinea Pigs Now
March 3, 2023

Are We Headed to War?
February 24, 2023