Are We Headed to War?
February 24, 2023
Leyendecker Executive Search
Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View
I have come to think that one of the main causes of trouble in the world is dogmatic and fanatical belief in some doctrine for which there is no adequate evidence.
– Bertrand Russell
THOUGHTS FROM DOUG
Months ago, I started talking about how “the base effect” influences inflation data. Now the WSJ has a good piece on it.
The Black Swan count for the 2020s so far: Covid, Ukraine war, inflation. Are we done for a while?
Might we be on a slippery slope to war, with Russia and China aligning to confront the Western world? Without Russia backing down in Ukraine, is escalation inevitable?
Germany and Japan lost World War II because they were not politically aligned and because they lacked ample energy resources (oil in particular). Today, though, Russia could supply China with energy and other natural resources, while China could supply Russia with technology.
Are we sleepwalking into a war by acting like we’re the “better” country? Do bullies care who is the “better” thinker, the “better” person?
There are three ways all humans engage in life: productive activity, leisure and maintenance. End of the day, each of us needs to earn enough from our productive activity to afford our leisure and maintenance. I expect each of us knows we have to live by that formula.
If our economic system is similar, the important question seems to be: Does our economic system have enough productive activity to afford our leisure and maintenance? Given our exploding debt to GDP, maybe not.
The CBO projects a 2023 to 2033 budget shortfall of $1.4T. Living beyond our means is par for the course these days. The last time we had a budget surplus was in 2001.
How cool will it be owning an EV when you can buy one for $6,250? Don’t some watches cost more than that?
Cheap Chinese EVs are already outselling Tesla in some markets.
You think Tesla, Detroit and all the European automakers can be profitable making and selling $6,000ish EVs? Can they make any money selling $6,000ish vehicles?
This past Monday, a journalist from The Free Press—a Substack-turned-new-media-enterprise from Bari Weiss, who famously resigned from the New York Times in 2020—reported on an interesting new spiritual revival unfolding out of Asbury University in Kentucky. Just yesterday, the NY Times reported on the same story. Is there a dinosaur in the house?
Will Asbury University’s spiritual revival become the most important cultural event of this decade?
THE ECONOMIC VIEW
Is the consumer cracking up?
Late auto payments are rising
Household debt keeps growing
Economic indicators keep falling
Wait, wait, wait…
January consumer spending jumped
Orders for manufactured goods rise
This doesn’t signal recession.
THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN
Inflation from 2000-2022
From the Visual Capitalist.
Getting to 2% inflation
May require crushing the economy
Airbnb rates are up big
Used car prices rise again
The Fed will surely take note.
THE LABOR VIEW
UK’s 4-day workweek is working
But hey, it’s the UK.
Their economy is in deep trouble
There’s not enough labor
For an American infrastructure boom.
It may be up to the robots
AI to destroy clerical jobs
So says IBM’s CEO.
Knowledge workers are now at risk
MEANWHILE IN EUROPE
EU bankruptcy filings
Hit an 8-year high
French union members protest pension reform
Is Macron’s latest plan on the ropes?
UK companies plan big pay raises
But less than inflation.
GLOBAL
Will India be the next China?
The signs seem to be there.
The dollar stays strong.
Developing countries are in trouble
China issues Global Security Initiative
Should we let communists tell us what to do?
PLAYING WITH FIRE
China wants to negotiate a peace treaty.
Here’s their proposal
EU and NATO not interested
Russia to deploy more nuclear missiles
While Putin promises more advanced arms
Playing poker with a weak hand?
Are the Russians messing with
Dutch energy infrastructure?
How long can Russia keep fighting?
Maybe a long time, with China’s support.
THE NEW COLD WAR
Time for a new Cold War
Here comes a new arms race.
US amps troop presence in Taiwan
Are we preparing for something?
Russia and China’s cooperation
Has reached “new milestones,” claims Putin
Xi to meet with Putin
THE FINANCE WORLD
We’re in for a large stock market fall
So says Morgan Stanley.
There are more hedge funds than Burger Kings
Sounds like we’re still in a bubble.
Record amount of investment
In high-grade corporate bonds.
2022 hedge fund winners and losers
The winners win big!
REAL ESTATE
The office market is a mess
Hybrid work means more vacancy
Asset values are going lower.
Is the housing correction over?
Maybe…maybe not.
Housing values down $2.3T so far
Home sales keep falling
The most secure real estate investment
May be in data centers
TECHNOLOGY
Here come the zombie VCs
Is the tech gold rush over?
VC fundraising at 9-year low
Meta wants to charge users
Following Elon’s lead at Twitter.
A passwordless future
May be around the corner.
THE CHAT ON CHAT
ChatGPT says global warming
Hasn’t been happening since 2016
ChatGPT is political
Can you guess its bias?
Chatbots have real problems
Are they fixable?
THE CRYPTO MEME
SBF’s defense is the public square
We’ll see how it works.
Some people are still committed to crypto
It may be their only path to wealth.
Crypto buyers beware
1 in 4 tokens is a scam.
THE NEXT NORMAL
Here comes the college crisis
Demographics don’t change easily.
Confidence in our institutions
Has cratered
Latest trust in media poll
Suggests it’s abysmal.
Schools eliminate honors classes
“Equity,” of course.
THE WAR ON CARBON
The green banking movement
Is starting to fracture
Al Gore struggles with ESG
Green investing isn’t easy.
Mother Nature
Has the best climate-fixing tools
THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION
Russia shattered global energy supply chains
A new energy infrastructure begins.
There’s a new boom
In energy transition tax breaks.
Offshore oil and gas
Is about to boom again
While offshore wind
Has a whale of a problem
THE EV DREAM
China’s lithium dominance grows
Beating Tesla at its own game in Africa.
And in Bolivia, too
China is the dominant global EV supplier.
Here’s how they got there
Used EV prices are falling
Tesla starts EV price war
An opportunity or a red flag?
THE CHINA SYNDROME
China is no longer the world’s factory
Suggests a Japanese component maker.
US-China tensions grow
Yet trade also grows
Chinese courts support
China’s theft of Western IP.
THE WASHING-TONE
IRA-backed ventures are exploding.
Good luck plugging them in
Energy department employees
Own stock in companies they help.
Biden visits Ukraine
Pledges unwavering US support.
So Putin suspends US nuke treaty
And commits to more oppression
MAKING A BETTER YOU
How to slow down time
When the pace of life seems furious.
Your mind shuts down new ideas
Here’s how and why.
Try these daily habits
From happiness experts.
HOW ABOUT A BREAK
What’s up with all the balloons?
Here’s a good explanation.
Children of the Ice Age
Had pretty robust lives.
Man beats AI at game of Go
There’s hope for humanity!
SONG OF THE WEEK
Alicia Keys sings “Show Me Love”
A Tiny Desk Concert.
A bonus this week…
Tom Jones & Janis Joplin are groovy
CASTING AROUND THE PODS
Bill Ackman talks about success
It’s all about working through failure.
VIDEOS OF THE WEEK
The trailer for Tetris the movie.
The story of Tetris the game. So much intrigue!
Are there more than five senses?
Science adds to philosophy.
In case you never saw it
Mad Max: Fury Road was a great ride.
FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN
Buried in winter snow?
Here are some comfort food recipes to try
It was a shipping error
That created the $30B chicken wing industry.
Those expensive eggs
Are really good for you
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
Ranting About the Climate Change Narrative
February 17, 2023
Is the Dollar About to Be Replaced?
February 10, 2023
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