AI Will Be Your Master Now

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

We learn from failure, not from success.
– Irish writer, Abraham “Bram” Stoker

THOUGHTS FROM DOUG

The Fed backstops SVB’s $175B in deposits
The Swiss central bank provides $50B lifeline to Credit Suisse
Big US banks deposit $30B into First Republic
US banks borrow $164B from the Fed
That’s this week’s big news…so far.

To save us from a banking crisis in 1998, the Fed orchestrated a $3.6B bailout of long-term capital. In 1998, we needed just $3.6B to avert crisis. Just consider the aforementioned amounts from this week’s news. Is there something going on today we’re not being told about?

The SVB collapse teaches us that quick, dramatic changes to any large system increase the risk of breaking something. 

The SVB meltdown should also remind us that the risks we think we’re managing are not as important as the risks we don’t even know exist.

What does it tell us when around 23,000 really “smart” employees at the Federal Reserve, including 400 PhDs, did not model the consequences of their current interest rate policy on banks?

Today we seem to live in a system where the government pays for the bad judgment of the people who give politicians money. Maybe we’ve always lived in that system.

VC investments in 2019 eclipsed $130B, a record year
2019 exits also hit a record at $256B
VC investments in 2021 hit $329B
2022 VC exits collapsed 90% from 2021
Yet 2022 VC fundraising hit a record $162B
Draw your own conclusions.

Russia is still killing Ukrainians in its effort to conquer an independent country. Exactly why is the world not abhorred by this?

When was the last time one country tried to take control of another country?

Who is going to pay to rebuild Ukraine?

It’s just the middle of March. Do you think there are more Black Swans in store for 2023?

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

Retail sales fell in February
Consumers are tapping the brakes.

Credit card debt and delinquencies skyrocket
While rates are climbing.

Our economic data is not good
Survey responses have collapsed.

Expectations on interest rates
Have changed dramatically.

A BANKING CRISIS???

Banks are losing deposits.
$120B pours into money markets

ECB raises interest rates
Damn the torpedoes!

Many US banks are undercapitalized
According to an academic study.

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN

US inflation cools in February
Everyone wants the Fed to pause.

Used car prices are rising again
Because new cars are unaffordable

Turkey’s inflation is down to 58%
Argentina’s inflation hits 100%
Think the US is a mess?

THE LABOR VIEW

Layoff announcements are exploding
Worst start of the year since 2009.

The jobs under threat from AI
Is yours one?

Reshoring hasn’t provided many jobs
Are we early in the process?

The politics of de-globalization
May favor the robots.

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

Macron raises French retirement age
By decree, not legislation.

Dutch farmers say NO!!!
To draconian climate policies.

UK net migration hits a record
It’s helping smooth Brexit.

The Swiss won’t support Ukraine
But they’ll take Russian money

GLOBAL

China brokers Saudi-Iran deal
Now Saudi Arabia denies visas to Israelis
China’s ready to broker Ukraine deal

Japan continues massive monetary stimulus
The money bazooka decade continues.

Venezuela’s Maduro has outfoxed the West
Can he keep it up?

PLAYING WITH FIRE

Poland to provide Ukraine fighter jets
Slovakia to do so, too
“This ain’t no foolin’ around”

Russian jet and US drone collide
The US vows not to back down.

War crimes trials have started
No Russians show up.

THE NEW COLD WAR

Xi to visit Putin in Moscow
Dictators plotting the future.

China, Russia and Iran
Hold joint military drills

Australia to get US nuclear subs.
China and Russia don’t like it

THE FINANCE WORLD

Global stock market capitalizations
The US dominates.

Super bubbles have no soft landings
Suggests GMO’s Jeremy Grantham.

The ten greatest acquisitions of all time
Some big money makers here!

REAL ESTATE

Banking’s next threat
May be real estate
Property values are already declining
Mega mansions get mega price cuts
While apartment construction booms

TECHNOLOGY

The AI ethics team at Microsoft
Has been laid off???

Social media is addicting
Zuckerberg doesn’t care.
As Gen Z depression explodes

Your phone runs on cobalt from DR Congo
Where child labor is rampant
How’s that ESG score, Apple?

THE CHAT ON CHAT

Open AI launches GPT-4
It blows away ChatGPT.
It’s acing higher-level ed tests
Here’s what you need to know

Whatever happened to Alexa?
Wasn’t she our chatbot buddy?

The first chatbot of 50 years ago
Predicted the dangers of AI

THE NEXT NORMAL

This changes everything
AI will now be your master.

Nagi, a small Japanese town
Holds the secret for making more babies

Taxing college endowments
May soon start happening

THE WAR ON CARBON

Europe pushes global fossil fuels phase out
Who put Europe in charge of the world?

Recycling millions of solar panels
Doesn’t sound cheap or green

Boreal forest wildfires release massive carbon
We should probably outlaw wildfires.

THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION

Argentina secures pipeline financing
Is a new natural gas giant on the horizon?

Check out China’s coal plant projects
Oh me, oh my!

A big tourist attraction in Iceland
Is their power plants

THE EV DREAM

Sweden builds massive battery factory
Is it too big and ambitious?

China seeks cobalt supply control
Most EV batteries come from China.

States are competing in the EV gold rush
While most people can’t afford an EV
And EV startups start to struggle

THE CHINA SYNDROME

China keeps hitting the US
With stealth cyber attacks

China tries to control South China Sea internet
By controlling subsea cable projects

China is an “epoch defining” challenge
Says British PM Sunak.

Xi vows “great wall of steel”
You think war might be coming?

THE WASHING-TONE

US Chamber of Commerce wants AI regulation
Good luck with that.

We know the enemy.
Time to ban TikTok?
Even a sale would be fruitless

US cities with the most homeless
Which political party dominates them?

MAKING A BETTER YOU

The Bionic Reading method
Can help you read faster

Wisdom that never expires
Man oh man OH MAN!

What separates successful people from others?
Yet success doesn’t lead to satisfaction

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

The most paid vacation days
How do countries stack up?

Near death experiences
Inspire belief in the after life

A speck in the sea
How an overboard lobsterman survived.

SONG OF THE WEEK

It’s St. Patty’s Day.

Time for U2’s “One”
Lyrics are poetry, you know

And Van Morrison’s “Warm Love”
Lyrics

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

“Energiewende” with Dr. Lars Schernikau
Trying to make sense out of renewable energy.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

They made a BlackBerry movie!
What’s a BlackBerry?

We Have a Ghost trailer
Ghostbusters meets Ghost.

The 21 best Irish movies of all time

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

Simple corned beef hash
‘Cause you want to be Irish today.
20 traditional Irish recipes

Pork belly with honey garlic sauce
It’s addicting!

The 11 hot food trends for 2023
More new yammies!

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Has the War in Space Already Started?
March 10, 2023

We’re All Guinea Pigs Now
March 3, 2023