The Singularity Is Here

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

Our technology—our machines—is part of our humanity. We created them to extend ourselves, and that is what is unique about human beings.
–Ray Kurzweil

A BIG THINK

The Singularity Is Here

A number of years ago, Inc. magazine named Ray Kurzweil “Edison’s rightful heir.” Kurzweil, now 75, has been a computer scientist, an author, an inventor and a futurist. He gained significant respect in the technology world as an inventor, then went on to become an author and public speaker, particularly at futurist events.

Kurzweil invented the first CCD flat-bed scanner, the first omni-font optical character recognition, the first print-to-speech reading machine for the blind, the first text-to-speech synthesizer, the first music synthesizer capable of recreating the grand piano and other orchestral instruments, and the first commercially-marketed, large-vocabulary speech recognition system.

I ran across Kurzweil and his ideas after being introduced to a book he published in 2005, The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology. By this time, Kurzweil had already written several books and was making predictions about the future of humanity and technology. In The Singularity Is Near, Kurzweil predicted a future where human biology would merge with technology to create beings that might be able to live forever.

Well, ladies and gentlemen, that day is looking to be right in front of us, perhaps just a year or three in our future. All the pieces needed are pretty much in place today.

What clued me into this fast-approaching milestone was the recent story of technically-competent thieves who scammed a company out of $25MM. From a story published in CNN:

A finance worker at a multinational firm was tricked into paying out $25 million to fraudsters using deepfake technology to pose as the company’s chief financial officer in a video conference call, according to Hong Kong police.

The elaborate scam saw the worker duped into attending a video call with what he thought were several other members of staff, but all of whom were in fact deepfake recreations, Hong Kong police said at a briefing on Friday.

“(In the) multi-person video conference, it turns out that everyone [he saw] was fake,” senior superintendent Baron Chan Shun-ching told the city’s public broadcaster RTHK.

So AI is already capable of copying a human being’s likeness, speech and mannerisms, at least enough to convince an employee to hand over $25MM.

If these “AI technologists” can fake a CFO and others whom they have never even met, imagine what they could do if they knew someone well.

Imagine filling out a questionnaire that was able to construct your basic personality. I’m sure the psychology profession has ample such tests. Add to this personality profile all the data about you that can be gleaned from the internet—your photos; the music, movies and television shows you consume; any articles you’ve written or read; any speeches you’ve given or watched; everything you buy on the internet; and everything you’ve searched online. All your internet activity is you!

Throw all this data into AI, and it will likely be able to construct your personality, your mind, your values, your thinking and your decision-making patterns. Then add this “AI mind” to a deepfake video image of yourself, which AI can make move just like you.

Throw all this together and out comes a metaverse character who, for all intents and purposes, is you. Then put this metaverse you into a metaverse world where you interact with other metaverse characters. A world where events happen and all the metaverse characters react to them, just as they would in real life.

This you, this metaverse you, could live in the metaverse indefinitely, way past your physical expiration date.

All the technology to do this is pretty much off-the-shelf today. Imagine living beyond your “expiration date,” not in the physical world, but in a world like we’ve seen in The Matrix films.

I’m still trying to wrap my mind around this future. Watch or listen to the Ray Kurzweil interview in this week’s podcast section.

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

The CBO has some grim news.
Trillion-dollar budget deficits for a decade

Wall Street expects six rate cuts.
Fed Chairman says it’ll be three
Chairman is afraid of cutting too early

Consumers and businesses grow debt
Debt is just part of everyone’s world now.
Consumer delinquency rates keep rising
Corporate defaults soared in 2023

THE LABOR VIEW

Australia introduces “right to disconnect”
No need to email or text after work hours.

Boeing workers want a 40% pay raise
Will this up the cost of planes?

Workers’ confidence in their employers’ outlook.
It’s hit a decade low

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

German industrial production falls
For the seventh straight month.

European climate policies burden their economies
Business leaders are starting to complain.

EU backs off agriculture emissions target
Farmers gave them a talking to.

THE GLOBAL GAME

India helps keep oil prices down
By buying Russian crude

El Salvador has a big hero.
Re-elected President Nayib Bukele

Argentina’s Milei gets reform setback
Can’t change the world overnight.

THE UKRAINE FIRE

Zelensky dismisses “iron general”
Time to change the starting line-up.

Ukraine rations ammunition
Waiting for more US and European support.

Russia’s TOS-1A Thermobaric weapon
Is really deadly and controversial

Russia’s metals furnaces are still firing.
Thanks to the help of Chinese engineers

THE GAZA FIRE

Netanyahu rejects Hamas’ cease-fire terms
Hamas’ demands are “delusional”

Iran’s proxy forces in the Middle East
A “Shiite crescent” stretches far and wide.
These proxies keep hitting US bases

THE NEW COLD WAR

Xi and Putin reject US “interference”
And pledge closer cooperation.

Russia using disinformation campaign
To make people dislike the US.

Iran, China and Russia to hold joint military drills
Birds of a feather…

REAL WAR TALK

NATO should prepare for a Russian attack
Will this only provoke the Russians?

War goes to space
We call this progress, right?

US to sell Turkey F-16s
Defense, the new growth industry.

FINANCE

We may have a zombie bank problem
Is real estate just one of their problems?

PE investors are paying out dividends
By piling on debt to their portfolios.

The hot market for institutional investors
May just be energy transition
As corporates crowd VCs out of AI

Larry Summers has a prophecy.
Interest rates well above 3% for the decade

REAL ESTATE

The latest trend in homeownership?
Home chapels.

Commercial real estate problems are manageable
So suggests Fed Chairman Powell.

Ready for a bargain?
NYC apartments at 50% off

TECHNOLOGY

India wants to steal iPhone biz from China
While China restricts iPhone use

Japan has a demographic challenge.
So they supplant labor with technology

Tim Cook pitches Vision Pro to businesses
Imagine an office full of Vision Pro people.

THE CHAT ON AI

AI is driving company layoffs
But they don’t want you to know about it.

Google releases their AI chatbot, Gemini
Let the AI games begin!

AI chip design is on its way
Will this destroy chip designer jobs?

THE NEXT NORMAL

The working mom’s newest hack.
Magic mushrooms

The hot new mental health therapy
Is connecting with nature

Hey America, we have an ethics problem
According to a recent Gallup poll.

THE WAR ON CARBON

BAML backtracks on financing pledge
Maybe hydrocarbons aren’t evil.

US, the world’s biggest natural gas supplier
A ten-year boom in capex productivity.

UK backs down on heat pumps
What’s economically practical?
Germans back down on carbon legislation

THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION

Wind giant, Ørsted, stumbles badly.
They seek to create a “leaner, more efficient company”

Germany paves way for 15+ new gas plants
So long as they eventually switch to hydrogen.
Yet most commercially-produced hydrogen comes from gas

The US wanted a homegrown solar industry.
Well, China is building a lot of it

THE EV DREAM

If Ford stopped making EVs
They could increase profits 50%

Hybrid sales are booming.
Toyota made the right call about EVs

EV sales are falling in California
Canary in the EV coal mine?

THE CHINA SYNDROME

China’s stock market bounces back.
Because the government is buying stocks

China and the US are decoupling.
You ain’t seen nothing yet

Will US chip curbs on China
Make Huawei an AI juggernaut?

THE WASHING-TONE

The construction industry is doing well
Thanks to Biden’s stimulus bills.

Is a border deal in the works?
Keep those fingers crossed.

She abandoned our allies in Afghanistan.
Now she’s getting a promotion

MAKING A BETTER YOU

A big key to career success
Is “linguistic similarity”

7 ways to be better at work
Sign me up!

Improve your mental health.
Listen to birds sing

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

Not since 1803
Two cicada hatches this spring!

At one time in history
Barbers were also surgeons

A history of beds
Sleep is simply wonderful.

SONG OF THE WEEK

“Fast Car”
Tracy Chapman and Luke Combs.
Slaying them at the Grammys.
“…a beacon of unity in an ocean of division.”
Lyrics are sometimes great poetry, ya know.

Bonus track…

“Free Man in Paris”
Joni Mitchell’s song is 50 years old.
Oh me, oh my!
Lyrics are poetry here, too.

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

Full-on AI debate
Mustafa Suleyman and Yuval Noah Harari
Co-founder of Deep Mind and Sapiens author.

Interview with Ray Kurzweil
A recent visit with the futurist.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

Jerome Powell’s 60 Minutes interview
Some wise words from our Fed chair?

The Taste of Things trailer.
Juliette Binoche in another food movie, yammy!

Mr. & Mrs. Smith hits TV.
Looks groovy!

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

Super Bowl yummies.
Dips, bring us dips!
Roasted beef tenderloin
King ranch chicken
15 pork tenderloin recipes
3-cheese queso nachos
Superior Super Bowl hot dog

Team cow or team soy?
The milk wars are heating up

THE RANDOMS

Should you have friends who are similar to or different from you?

Tucker Carlson interviewed Vladimir Putin. The result seems to be nothing of consequence, but other jealous media outlets are sensationalizing the event.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is now seeking trillions of dollars to reshape AI business and chips.  Trillions of dollars? Uh, Sam, what world are you living in? Maybe the old AI board was on to something about Sam and the future of AI when they booted him as CEO. OpenAI revenue has rapidly grown to $2B.

Big tech is cutting jobs and investing in AI. Hmmm…Does anyone see a developing trend line here?

When did government workers transition from being referred to as “public servants” to “public officials”? “Officials” certainly sounds much more empowered than “servants,” right?

A kid killed four people at his high school. Should parents be held responsible? Looks like they can be. A new precedent has been set. Parents, you may be held accountable for your children’s actions.

What do education and health care have in common? They both have higher inflation than CPI, and they are both much more heavily influenced and regulated by the government compared to much of the rest of private-sector industries.

Boeing is in “the last chance saloon” for at least one big customer. Why has Boeing’s manufacturing become so troubled and less efficient? Maybe because they have no real US competition?

The Boeing problem highlights what happens when an industry monopoly exists. Healthy competition leads to overall better results for more people. In its absence, then all we can do is depend on regulatory bureaucrats to try to force efficiency. How often does that work?

India has replaced China as the fastest-growing economy in the world. This news made me think—India’s film industry makes some good movies, while I’ve seen nothing from China’s film industry. Heck, South Korea’s film industry blows China’s away. What does producing zero films that appeal to a global audience tell us about China?

There are certainly people who will debate the historical accuracy of The Bible, but its messages about human behavior sure seem accurate.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

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