Who Watches Soap Operas?

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

There’s no sound I don’t like.
– 11-year-old Aissam Dam, after gene therapy gave him hearing for the first time

A BIG THINK

Who Watches Soap Operas?

You like soap operas, right?

Of course you don’t. Soap operas are stupid, over-the-top sagas of improbable drama with b-list actors. Only bored housewives of yesterday watched soap operas…day after day after day after day…because they were addicting.

Why? The more addicting, the more eyeballs. The more eyeballs, the more ad revenue, and the greater the wealth made for the people involved.

Years ago, I actually wanted to know the strategy behind soap operas. I came across it in a USC quarterly publication from their Cinematic Arts department written by a PhD candidate: You create a soap opera narrative by constantly postponing narrative resolution.

The human mind naturally seeks resolution. The alternative is uncertainty, and uncertainty can be intolerable. Soap opera writers exploit this human quirk. No narrative resolution in today’s episode! Make ’em desperate for certainty in tomorrow’s. But then deny it to them again! Brilliant.

For any consumers of news out there—and aren’t we all?—does this sound familiar? Let’s see…

The Days of Our Donald Trump Lives just might be the hottest show in town. Talk about drama!

And what about Guiding Light…Skin vs. Dark Skin, the never-ending saga of America’s intractable, horrific, irredeemable, abhorrent systemic racism and white supremacy.

Or As the World…Burns, the apocalyptic tale of climate change that only…draconian mandates from on high (that will hurt the poor the most, but never mind) and subsidies to certain kinds of companies and wealth redistribution can change.

Have you seen The Bold and the Dutiful? This one is where a righteous media and elite class appoints themselves warriors in a battle against a basket of deplorables in the name of saving democracy!

The soap opera strategy is brilliant and enduring because it works. That the mainstream news media would glom onto it makes sense.

Starting in the 1990s, the number of networks exploded, and 24-hour cable channels upped the ante. And then the mother of all disruptions—the internet. News media was hemorrhaging ad dollars, forcing fight or flight.

If “flight” was folding, then what was “fight”? Upping the drama…making the narrative as sensational as possible…and compelling viewers to come back, day after day, to get the latest turn of events in some unfolding saga that would never end. In other words: Go full soap opera.

And did they ever! With just the right narratives that make resolution impossible.

We all know Donald Trump ain’t going anywhere. That guy sells news!

Can “systemic racism” be eradicated when no one can actually define what it is, let alone validate it with clear and adequately encompassing data? So clever.

As is this one: Weather and climate fluctuations are as old as Earth itself. If Texas has a “normal” winter, don’t worry because we can certainly find another state that didn’t! So smart. A resolution is literally impossible.

But thank goodness we have the media elite to valiantly save our democracy. Because what our democracy really needs in order to survive is…an almost pathologically polarized populace—thanks to the very hyperbolic, sensationalized, spectacularly dramatic “news” these noble warriors serve up! And, no less, to the tunes of tens of millions a year.

Nope, no way all those gobs of money could sway their moral compasses. They are too pure of heart to fall prey to the lure of Manhattan penthouses and Hamptons weekend homes…They are the morally righteous, after all. The only thing that motivates them is The Truth^TM.

Next time you watch CNN, MSNBC, Fox News, pick up a paper, or read that online article, maybe it’s worth considering if you’re consuming little more than Melrose Place dressed up in fancier clothes.

There’s no such thing as a free lunch. When we get addicted to a soap opera, its producers and actors laugh all the way to the bank.

But then what happens to us?

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

353,000 jobs added in January
How does the Fed cut rates now?

March rate cut is not on the table
Says the Fed chairman.

UPS sees significant volume decline
They’re readying to cut 12,000 jobs
Hard to read the economic tea leaves.

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN

Is the price of gasoline about to rise?
This wouldn’t help inflation.

Biden says grocery stores are gouging
Grocery stores and oil & gas, the bad guys.
Which states have the most expensive groceries?
The average household spends $1K a month!

Consumer Price Index: 2023 Year in Review
The year ended on an uncertain note.

THE LABOR VIEW

Remote workers most at risk.
When it comes time for layoffs

Public sector union membership declines
As private sector membership rises.
Overall union membership stays steady

Job postings are declining
High interest rates are finally kicking in.

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

“What the hell?”
Europe balks at Biden’s protectionism
And they’re falling further behind economically
They’ve regulated themselves into last place

French farmers are really pissed
Here’s why
Their government backtracks a little.
But farmers say not enough
And spray manure on government buildings
Finally, the government gives in

German inflation bites consumers
Will this motivate more savings?

THE GLOBAL GAME

Javier Milei’s Davos speech
Does this portend a tipping point for the global economy?

World corruption map
Is most of the world corrupt?

The cheapest places to live in the world
English is rarely spoken in most of these places.

THE UKRAINE FIRE

Ukraine is challenged.
But they keep holding Russia back
Despite being outgunned 3 to 1
The EU approves a $50B Ukraine package
And the US is sending them GLSDBs
Poland announces new military aid package

The battle for ammunition
Ukraine doesn’t have enough.

THE GAZA FIRE

The US proposes aggressive terms for cease-fire
Israel’s goal remains the elimination of Hamas

US troops killed in Jordan
Biden calculates a proper response

UN employees were helping Hamas
Lovely entity, that UN is.

THE NEW COLD WAR

UAE pays China in digital currency
And end around on the dollar?

Chinese hackers are focused on the US
Would anyone consider this an act of war?

Saudi Arabia and US resume defense talks
After the Gaza situation prompted a pause.

FINANCE

The IPO market is on fire!
…In India

Is a new bank crisis around the corner?
NYCB reports loss and cuts dividend

PE is sharing more equity with workers
KKR leads new portco incentives.

2023 IPO market was ugly.
74% below previous 2011-2020 average

REAL ESTATE

Commercial real estate loans
Have problems around the world

The most and least expensive neighborhoods
In the USA.

A lot of premier office buildings
Are in financial trouble

Blackstone creates retail PE fund
Chasing the least-informed investors.
Blackstone goes big on data center investments

TECHNOLOGY

The unintended consequences of social media
Are front and center in Congress.

Musk’s Neuralink brain chip implanted in first human
Will he be the smartest person on earth?

Tech starts 2024 with a layoff bender
It’s gonna be another bumpy year.
Google cuts thousands of jobs
While profits boom for some tech giants

WHO’S IN THE CHIPS?

Intel delays Ohio chip plant construction
Samsung gives similar news about its AZ plant
What’s up with chips?

The chip industry’s dirty little secret
Making chips is an energy hog!

China’s chip output could double
Are we headed for a chip glut?

THE CHAT ON AI

Big tech owns AI
Is it time to break up big tech?

China has new AI rules
A template for us to follow?
The US is spooked by AI competition

Musk wants to compete with ChatGPT
He’s raising $6B to make it happen.

THE NEXT NORMAL

20-somethings are acting like 80-somethings.
9PM is the new bedtime

According to this poll, the US elite 1%
Are out of touch with the mainstream.

Forget about sex in the future.
The gender-ideological divide widens

THE WAR ON CARBON

Africa should not abandon fossil fuels
Says Kenya’s president.

US natgas production at record high
A growth industry Democrats want to crush.

50% of California’s energy comes from oil
Who woulda thunk it?

THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION

Dreams of sustainable jet fuel
Don’t look to be coming true soon

Wind farms are overstating their output
And consumers are paying for it.

Dire straits for European solar panel makers
They need tariffs on Chinese panels.

THE EV DREAM

2024 was supposed to be the big EV year
It hasn’t gotten off to a good start.
Even EV juggernaut BYD is looking vulnerable

GM went all-in on EVs
Their nickname is “Government Motors.”

The solid-state EV battery future
Doesn’t look to be happening soon.

THE CHINA SYNDROME

Trump will abandon Taiwan
Per Chinese propaganda.

Chinese regulators curb short selling
Hoping to stall market downdraft.
Citizens and investors are buying gold

China’s Evergrande told to liquidate
Over $300B in liabilities need to be settled.

THE WASHING-TONE

Good news for cooks!
You can keep your gas stove

It’s an election year.
President Biden ready to promise billions
Says he’s wants to stop border crisis
And gives green voters an LNG present
Climate activists cancel protests

Biden eased sanctions on Venezuela.
They immediately broke their promise
So will sanctions return?
Venezuela threatens retaliation

MAKING A BETTER YOU

A practical guide
To quitting your smartphone

The key to a long-term relationship.
Just might be a sense of humor

Americans need more sleep
Is there a sleep crisis going on?

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

Any dads out there?
How about some endless dad jokes?

What the world will look like in 2034
300 “experts” give their views.

A British zoo’s most popular animal?
The swearing parrots, of course

SONG OF THE WEEK

“In The Air Tonight”
Phil Collins turned 73 this week.
Lyrics can be poetry, ya know.

And for the younger folks…

There’s 20-year old Kidd G.
“Summer in a Small Town”
Lyrics can be poetry, yeah yeah yeah.

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

Europe’s current business model is not sustainable
From McKinsey’s Forward Thinking podcast.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

Racing the Streif
The world’s most dangerous ski race.

The Roadhouse remake trailer
Perfect role for Jake Gyllenhaal!

The Argyle trailer
Matthew Vaughan has too much fun!

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

The best cheeses of 2023
Hmmm…interesting.

Get your pot roast drunk.
Give it a dark & stormy boost
Or make it an English Sunday roast

Every job in a Michelin-starred kitchen
Interesting video!

THE RANDOMS

Iran says they are not looking for war. Well of course not. They prefer to let their proxies do their bidding. Will the US swallow this ruse?

“Imagine if Stephen Hawking could communicate faster than a speed typist or auctioneer. That is the goal.” Such is the future Elon Musk imagines possible with Neuralink. But, Elon, what happens to the “little people”? Will everyone get a Neuralink implant so we can all be Stephen Hawkings? And what will our world look like if everyone becomes a Stephen Hawking?

The EV industry complains it’s the lack of charging stations that’s driving down EV demand. But is it possible there are a good number of people out there just not convinced that EVs are better for the environment than gas-powered cars? This is certainly on my mind. We have yet to really understand the unintended consequences of EV, solar and wind turbine manufacturing and disposal.

Maybe the PE liquidity event drought will end in 2024, with both lower interest rates and lower seller expectations.

Bureaucrats in Brussels demand that the EU invest $1.5T annually to meet net-zero goals. Good luck affording that when the economy struggles to resist recession. And good luck growing the economy when the costs of energy go even higher.

At no other time in history have humans been so relentlessly bombarded with information as we are on an hourly basis today. Are our brains even evolved to handle this much information? Is it any wonder most humans feel in a constant state of overwhelm these days? Could this explain our skyrocketing mental illness, trust crisis and political polarization?

If generations like Gen Z believe social security won’t be here for them, will they actively save more money? And if they do, how might that affect consumption and the economy?

When I think about the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index, I wonder if it’s really dominated by two influences, the price of gasoline and the level of the stock market. What if the price of gasoline goes up and the stock market falls?

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

AI Me!
January 26, 2024

Pondering the Future
January 19, 2024