Is Order the Anomaly?

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

I like the dreams of the future better than the history of the past.
–Thomas Jefferson

A BIG THINK

Is Order the Anomaly?

For many people, looking back on 2023 can elicit a great, big sigh. We had all manner of challenges: inflation, recession fears, the continuing Ukraine war, the horrors of October 7 and the Gaza war, the incessant beating from government and media about climate change, the ongoing Donald Trump soap opera, the revelations of rot in higher ed and the debate over if and how woke narratives writ large affect our everyday lives and our country.

Opps, forgot to mention AI, the newest technology thrust upon us that will move us closer to the Matrix, a world where we may have to either succumb to being a slave to technology or a revolutionary like Neo. Will the future Matrix world even allow Neos to exist?

Surely I have forgotten a few other concerns of the average person who is not making big money in the stock market.

Yes, 2023 deserves a big sigh, maybe at best.

Boy will we be glad to get this year behind us. The Fed reducing interest rates could boost the economy and brighten 2024.

That said, let’s not forget that 2024 is a presidential election year. And it’s sure to be a doozy.

Where’s the utopia to escape what seems like constantly multiplying economic, social and geopolitical challenges? Unfortunately, there is none. When friends complain about all the challenges we’re facing here in the United States, I ask, “Where would you go to escape our problems? Surely, we can’t fit 8 billion people into New Zealand.”

This all reminds me of an epiphany from several years ago…

Maybe order is the anomaly, and chaos the norm.

Chaos, of course, sounds like no fun. But when we think about what really makes life work well, it tends to be what we gain and how we improve from learning to navigate, survive and even thrive in chaos. What would we do if everything in life was always orderly? Would we ever grow?

This reminds me of a recent text conversation I had with a friend. She texted to share that Tony Bennett passed away at the age of 96. Her point was to remark on what a long and wonderful life he had. But then I had a thought—“I guess he’s now going to be just another average soul,” I responded.

If there is an after life, a heaven, then surely all souls are equal in it. Surely there can’t be a social or economic hierarchy, or even a spiritual hierarchy, in the world of souls. If what we hope of an afterlife is solace for eternity, then surely any sort of hierarchy would be at odds with that. Instead, we’d all be average, existing in an eternal state of sameness and order. After all, how could heaven be different from Earth if heaven asked us to rise above challenge?

Reminds me of a quote from astronaut Jim Lovell. He spoke these words after completing his second lunar mission: “You have to really kind of think about our own existence here in the universe…You realize that people often say, ‘I hope to go to heaven when I die.’ In reality, if you think about it, you go to heaven when you’re born.”

I don’t know if there’s a heaven. I don’t know if all souls are equal in it. I just know that, when I look back on my life, it’s the roadblocks and rough patches that gave me opportunities to learn, grow, build character, connect with humanity, and develop the kind of confidence that teaches us we all have the capacity to persevere through life’s greatest challenges. I witness the same with my children—surviving through the chaos leaves them better prepared for a healthy, fulfilling, gratifying life. If that’s not heaven…

I choose to embrace the chaos. There is great satisfaction, sometimes even fun in facing and overcoming challenges. Order just seems too boring, never mind too unfulfilling.

Go out and enjoy the wind in your face next year. It’s making you stronger, smarter and more resilient. And you also become a model of how to live life well—which is something, besides your genes, that can be your legacy.

Hippy Happy New Year!

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

Holiday spending increased
Consumers remain resilient
While credit card spending piles up
As savings dwindle

High interest rates slam car loans
Will the Fed soon save the day?

Student loan repayments restart.
And 8.8MM people miss their first payment

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN

Goods prices declined in November
Deflation on the horizon?
But services inflation was up 2.1%

The inflation of $1
Visualization from 1999 to today.

THE LABOR VIEW

All hail the rise of the “flexetariat”
WFH has created a new role.

Tiny employers have record hiring demand
Is there an entrepreneurial boom happening?

Small retailers employ millions
Can Amazon or Walmart erase those jobs?

THE GREAT UNLEARNING

The U Penn “dissidents” rewrite their charter
Can we fix higher education?

Harvard early admit applications drop 17%
Get your DEI indoctrination degree here!

Harvard dean faces new plagiarism allegations
Why were claims ignored before she was hired?

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

Europe stares at weak 2024 growth
With big risks to boot.

Denmark has free college.
But free has a price

Italy bans lab-grown meat
You gotta love this country.

THE GLOBAL GAME

Argentina’s new president says prices will rise.
And now fuel is up 60%

UK to deploy naval ship to Guyana
Your move, Venezuela.

A wave of violence terrorizes Mexico
No wonder so many want to go to the US.

THE UKRAINE FIRE

EU ready to give Ukraine $20B
Skirting Hungary’s objections with a loan.

Russia is stealing Ukrainian children
Evil, just down right evil.

Russian women want their men home
Half of Russians want the war to end
Putin may be ready for a cease-fire

THE GAZA FIRE

Hamas leadership meets in Turkey
Turkey is in the EU, right?

Netanyahu lays out his thinking
Israel’s goals are big.

Iran proxies widen Red Sea attacks
US hits their drone factories
Shipper Maersk to return to the Red Sea
With US protection.

THE NEW COLD WAR

North Korean ghost ships
Are supplying Russia with arms

Chinese traders and Moroccan ports.
How Russia gets around sanctions

China and Russia keep talking cooperation
The West better up military budgets.
China is a big Russian grain customer
Gazprom’s exports to China hit a record
Russia has ample non-NATO trading partners.

FINANCE

$46B was lost on 2023 SPAC investments
Yet this didn’t upset the stock market.

Global banks cut 60,000 jobs in 2023
Will lower rates inspire more deals?

PE lending league tables
Will Fed rate cuts save them?

Middle-market PE deal-making at 6-year low
When are interest rates going to plummet?

REAL ESTATE

The rise of forever renters
Is changing the savings landscape.

Downtown office vacancy rates
Empty is the new normal.

California has 12% of the US population.
But 22% of our homeless

TECHNOLOGY

Samsung delays Texas chipmaking
Will this plant be mothballed one day?
The chip wars are metastasizing

Could this retro PC maker
Be the next Steve Jobs?

Big VC funds underperform smaller ones
And their futures look dim.

THE CHAT ON AI

The NY Times sues OpenAI
Time to get a piece of the company.

Big tech outspends venture capital
In the AI space.

UAE’s hot AI company G42
Is switching from China to US hardware

THE NEXT NORMAL

US hospital system is broken big time
Prices range broadly, patients suffer.

Social media posting is in decline
Bored with it. Too much vitriol.

Hot gift next Christmas
Could be Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses
They can translate languages and more
Could they resurrect the VR market?

CRASHING-DREAMS TECH

Hyperloop One to shut down
Money and ideas learn a lesson.

Fake it until you make it.
Lab-grown meat was a dumb idea

Self-driving cars, an investment bust
16 year olds can learn in a week.
The scooter boom is also over

THE WAR ON CARBON

A French ruling
May require investors to exit fossil fuels

Oil and gas should not be demonized.
Says Elon Musk

Giant fans pull carbon from the air
A long-shot climate bet turns hot.

THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION

The rich world holds back the global poor
With green policies, says UN trade head.

US Treasury knee-caps hydrogen industry
Biden needs to look into this.

Environmentalist want a greener future
But don’t scar the earth with mining

THE EV DREAM

Investors sour on EV charging stations
They don’t make any money.

Chinese EV maker
Now sells more cars than Tesla

Oklahoma EV battery plant canceled
Panasonic doesn’t see the demand.

THE CHINA SYNDROME

China is stealing US AI secrets
No surprise here.

China regulates online gaming
“Better world” policy from the top.
Oh, that didn’t work, time to back track

China scolds the Philippines
Our rules should be your rules.

THE WASHING-TONE

What free stuff is Biden giving illegals?
Just look at this photo of a coming hoard

Biden sends bureaucrats to Mexico
That’s going to fix the immigration problem?

Washington squandered $900B in 2023
Says the annual Paul Rand “festivus” report.

MAKING A BETTER YOU

Finding your purpose and a meaningful life
Hunter S. Thompson at age 22.

Reading books
Helps heal our minds

Most common New Year’s Eve resolutions
Count me in for all of them.

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

How to create the life you want.
Use strategic thinking

Harvard-Harris Poll
What are Americans thinking?

Extinct bird found in New Zealand
One more reason to move there.

SONG OF THE WEEK

“Happy New Year!”
From the non-AI ABBA!

“Auld Lang Syne”
Thanks, Mariah Carey!

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

How to build the life you want
PhD and writer Arthur Brooks chats with Peter Attia.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

Did you see the Nike movie Air?
The Damon-Affleck team makes magic.

The Iron Claw trailer.
A Texas wrestling legend.

Ferrari trailer.
Michael Mann and Adam Driver do it right.

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

The bad-luck New Year’s Eve foods
Don’t eat these!

The 20 best recipes of 2023
According to Bon Appétit.

The most delicious baked potatoes
Don’t try this, I’m warning you!
Or this baked mac & cheese recipe

THE RANDOMS

My top New Year’s resolution? I’m going to give up aging. Wait, wait wait…Does that mean I’d be dead?

In 2023, a record number of research papers were retracted. Maybe we can’t believe everything we read on the internet, or in an academic research study either. Here are 10 scientific breakthroughs in 2023 that may not be so legit.

Are we losing some of our mental acuity and capability by relying so much on technology these days? And if we are, are we gaining other functional capabilities that help improve our individual lives? Or is growing mental illness telling us our individual lives are actually degrading? And what about our record rates of homelessness? Housing aid hits a 25-year low.

Free will should allow all of us to program our own mind. If so, what thoughts are you programming into your mind?

But our minds are susceptible to groupthink. Birds of a feather may stick together, but birds together generally become of one feather. The way you think and act tends to morph into how the people you surround yourself with think.

We tend to think and believe what we hear and see in our little gaggle of echo chambers.

Total government debt around the world now stands at $97T. This is a 40% increase since just 2019! When we consider where interest rates will be down the road, maybe we should ponder  where the money is going to come from to finance government debt, without higher-for-longer interest rates.

Once more, let’s remember Newton’s 3rd law: “For every action (force) in nature, there is an equal and opposite reaction.”

Perhaps the least appreciated question about any action is: What will be the unintended consequences?

The path to progress is littered with failure. How else do we learn the right things to do without first learning the wrong things to do?

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Breathing Causes Climate Change
December 22, 2023

Going Along to Get Along
December 15, 2023