Mexico Blows by China

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

And all the lives we ever lived and all the lives to be are full of trees and changing leaves.
– Virginia Woolf

A BIG THINK

Only a coffee nerd would do the math that calculated 87,000 potential coffee choices at Starbucks. 

When you go to Starbucks and order something, you’ll likely never hear, “I’ll have the same thing as she just ordered.” Notice how I used the word “she” in this last sentence? I did so because 61% of Starbucks’ customers are women.

I’m actually intimidated to order anything at Starbucks. I don’t know the language. Yet all the employees seem to understand what people are ordering, and certainly all the people ordering have deciphered the correct things to say to get a cup of Joe that is very special and very personal to them.

“Very special and very personal to them” seems to be where we are sociologically as a country these days. When you have 87,000 choices, you can choose one so unique that it says “you.”

Today everyone has their symbols, whether it’s their special Starbucks concoction, or their special tattoos, or their special Instagram page, or a special smartphone with their own special background photo. 

No matter if people are rich, middle class or poor, it seems that today everyone has this idea that they need to be different, special, not like everyone else. Is this why today’s society seems so fragmented? Is this why we seem to have lost the sense of community?

No one wants to be like anyone else today, which of course seems a bit natural. But have we taken this effort to be unique so far that we can no longer cooperate and collaborate? Have we replaced the collective community with millions of “me’s,” all with a special something that includes our own special opinions? 

We have 87,000 available choices at Starbucks, and we have all manner of other choices we can make to create our own unique identity. This seems to suggest it’s going to be hard to get people on the same page about our economic and social policies. Maybe that’s our problem these days—we just have too many choices.

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

Small business optimism is falling
How soft will the economic landing be?

Supermarket shoppers pull back
Kroger is near-term pessimistic.
Is the consumer about to hit the wall?

Mexico blows by China.
And is now top US exporter

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN

Inflation advances in August
The price of oil waterfalls everywhere.

Inflation is making Americans more poor
Median incomes fell for third straight year
Will workers demand higher wages?

Weather disasters to push up insurance prices
More inflation is coming.

THE LABOR VIEW

Visual effects specialists join a union
Will more follow suit?

California restaurant minimum wage
Is now $20 an hour

Casual is the new work uniform
Only 3% of workers wear suits or suit separates.

Wage gains are slowing
Will union strikes bring them up again?

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

ECB ups interest rates
Even as recession risk grows.

Europe is afraid of China’s EVs
They can’t make them as cheaply.
Is an EV trade war starting?
One more geopolitical problem.
China cries “naked protectionism”

European solar panel makers nearly bankrupt.
They also can’t compete with China

European natgas prices soar
The Australian worker strike is the catalyst.
The Euro suffers an 8-week losing streak

GLOBAL

Which countries attract the most migrants?
Wanna guess who’s number one?

Global trade slump
Favors the United States

Egyptian president wants to reduce birthrates
Seems he wants to follow the China example.

PLAYING WITH FIRE

Hypersonic missiles are the new game changers
The US doesn’t have them, but Russia and China do.

More US sanctions are coming
Trying to choke Russia’s economy.
While Putin gets more Russian elites to return

Ukraine hits Russian Black Sea base
Ukraine launches very large drone attack
With winter coming, they need some victories.

GEOPOLITICAL UNRAVELING

The recent G20 summit
Was the first in our new multipolar world

India is not paying for Russian oil in rupees
Although the Russians hinted they were.

Iranian oil exports to China
Hit a new record in August

Russia building Bangladesh nuclear plant
China building nuclear plant for Pakistan
The US isn’t building these, France isn’t…

FINANCE

Private equity is a mess.
Can they borrow their way out of it?

Banks load up on risky deposits
Hot money can leave as easily as it came.

Investors fleeing Chinese real estate market
Are pumping up the US stock market

Brookfield and SocGen launch $10B+ credit fund
Could be good timing with current rates.

REAL ESTATE

Banks to lose $250B+ on office buildings
So says investor Kyle Bass.

The mortgage market may soon change
After the NYSE’s owner bets big on it.
Rates go up after after three-week pause

Apartment development has been booming
It’s at a record high
Not for poor people, though, it’s for luxury living
Will rents now start falling?

TECHNOLOGY

Apple’s new iPhone adopts USB-C charger
They used to call it innovation.

Google is in the crosshairs
Their antitrust trial could be pivotal to big tech.
Their search dominance suggests monopoly

Apple products experience big security breach
Apple is having some problems these days.
China represents 20% of Apple sales

THE CHAT ON AI

No one can agree on how to regulate AI
Is it already too late, anyway?

AI is not just an electricity hog
It’s also a water hog

The AI-powered war of the future
Is already here

THE NEXT NORMAL

Gatorade’s newest drink is…water
People will buy anything with a brand.

More states are legalizing marijuana.
Do we really understand what we’re doing?

The James Webb Telescope
May be unraveling our story of the universe

THE WAR ON CARBON

Sustainable aviation
Is pie in the sky

California passes sweeping emissions bill
It might be impossible for companies to comply.

What powers the world, from Visual Capitalist
Coal is still the global king.
Global coal consumption at record high
Fossil fuels will soon peak out, says IEA

THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION

Africa, the natural gas sleeping giant
Can they commercialize all their potential?

US to add record amount of solar in 2023
And much more is coming.

Hedge fund boss slams hydrogen
It’s a “complete waste of time.”

THE EV DREAM

10 new EVs about to hit the US market
Let’s see how they sell.

O&G companies could fuel EV revolution
By turning drilling waste water into lithium

VW is way behind in the EV game
Maybe they should stick to ICE cars.

THE CHINA SYNDROME

The growth of China’s savings rate
Will hold back its economy

Why did Xi not attend the G20 meeting?
An Indian perspective

Leaked data suggests
China’s population is shrinking fast

THE WASHING-TONE

Tech leaders talk AI to Congress
And there’s no common perspective.

Biden works a deal with Iran
While Europe maintains their sanctions

It’s time to increase government productivity.
McKinsey lays it out for us

MAKING A BETTER YOU

The power of intuition
Even science believes in it.

This 101-year-old neurologist
Has some suggestions for us

Are naps good for you?
The research is in!

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

Mexico has alien mummies from outer space
They presented photos to their Congress.

Mexico’s marathon disqualified 11,000 runners
It seems they have a massive cheating problem.
None was using this human hamster wheel

The early history of counting
This must be how math started.

TAKE SOME TIME OFF

Fall foliage prediction map
In case you’re angling for a trip.

Iceland has over 600 hot springs.
Here are 5 worth visiting

Want a low-cost Italian vacation?
Go to Albania

SONG OF THE WEEK

Olivia Rodrigo releases second album
What the kids are listening to today.
“Bad idea, right?”
Lyrics are poetry, supposedly.

Give her a shot at the Tiny Desk

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

Walter Isaacson talks Musk and other geniuses
Maybe we don’t need to read the book.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

The bear and the mirror
15 seconds of crazy!!!

Killers of the Flower Moon
Do Scorsese and DiCaprio have a winner?

She Came to Me trailer.
Peter Dinklage and Anne Hathaway, hmmm…

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

Fall is around the corner.
Break out all the apple recipes

The state of pizza in each state
Another good reason to visit all 50.

Pistachios are quiet luxury
And yummy, too.

THE RANDOMS

Apple just released its latest iPhone. I wonder if tracking sales of this new iPhone will be the best economic indicator we can find these days. Stay tuned.

Do soft-landing economic circumstances normally precede a return to dynamic growth, or do they normally precede a recession?

I wonder what the inflationary lag effect is after energy prices start to rise. Energy is an input into every good produced and service provided.

If the US embraced nuclear energy significantly more, what would the value be of all the billions of dollars that are currently being “invested” in our effort to decarbonize? Uh…

Did anyone notice the article in a previous TLV that reported on Finland’s electricity prices dropping by 75% after they turned on a new nuclear power plant? 

That’s a 75% drop in electricity prices.

That’s a 75% drop in electricity prices.

Did you get that? 

That’s a 75% drop in electricity prices.

What if we have climate science all wrong? What if something else is happening to the earth or with the sun that we just don’t understand. Nah…science and politics never make mistakes, right?

Remember the old saying about the difference between correlation and causation? Should we ponder how that might apply to climate?

Reminds me of the Dunning-Kruger effect.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Don’t Count Out China
September 8, 2023

Can a Song Start a Revolution?
September 1, 2023