10 Rules for a Good Life

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

If you want others to be happy, practice compassion. If you want to be happy, practice compassion.
– The Dalai Lama

A BIG THINK

I stuck my neck out last week on political thinking. How about I run with it one more time…

The US has a health care cost problem. Almost 18% of our GDP is health care spending. That’s a ton, compared to other Western countries. 

All that money we spend on health care is certainly not changing the country’s health. Obesity is exploding. Diabetes is exploding. McKinsey suggests we’re losing 16% of potential GDP growth because of our poor health.

So, how do we fix this problem?

We certainly are not going to fix it in a short period of time. Our habits, our food and health care systems are not going to change quickly. This is a problem that could take decades to fix, as people need to adjust their thinking about health, food and medicine.

So here’s an out-of-the box idea…

What if we nationalized health care for all children from birth until they turn 25? Along with this free and required health care, we would make health education a more active part of schooling. And some form of gym class would return as a requirement for every able-bodied student.

Children are every country’s future. Only if we change their thinking on health, eating and exercise are we going to reduce the behaviors that create our country’s health care problem. 

Children represent 23% of our population yet only 10% of our health care spending. What if we made sure children were as healthy as possible and as educated on health as possible? Would this not lead to better health outcomes and lower health care spending throughout their adulthood?

Of course, we have to figure out a way to pay for this kind of program. But surely this could be a bipartisan issue. Who doesn’t want to invest in the country’s children, in the country’s future?

Throw out some thoughts here, folks. Feedback and ideas are always welcome, since it is dialog that helps us all learn more.

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

Atlanta Fed predicts 5.8% GDP growth
Wowser!
Rates could stay higher for longer
Yet SF Fed says excess savings almost gone

Is it time to worry about consumer debt?
Probably not if GDP grows 5%+.

Retail sales rise more than expected
Americans more optimistic on inflation
What happens if gasoline prices rise?
Big retailers take a cautious view

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN

Streamflation is here
The era of cheap streaming is over.
Childcare inflation is twice that of normal inflation

The end of ZIRP
Reducing interest rates may be challenging.

Gasoline and food inflation return
The Fed won’t like this.
Home Depot sees less inflation

THE LABOR VIEW

Job openings are contracting
But still way outnumber the unemployed.

The four-day workweek
Does it have a future?

Companies that offer unlimited vacations
Appear to perform better.

Earn the big bucks, up to $900K
As an AI engineer.

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

EU bankruptcies surge
Will energy prices spike this winter?

Europe expands its windfall profits tax
And it’s not just O&G getting hit.
Now Italy is backtracking a bit

Net zero is not working out for Europe
While Biden plows ahead.

GLOBAL

Japan’s economy grows at 6%
Japan is the new China.

Unraveling globalization
Has its economic losers.

A far-right libertarian
Could be Argentina’s next leader

PLAYING WITH FIRE

Russian ruble is worth less than a penny
When will Russians oust Putin?

Russia exploits oil export loophole
And rakes it in.

Ukraine’s civilian death toll mounts
What’s your definition of evil?

Lockheed wins big
War is good business.

GEOPOLITICS IN FLUX

The future of war.
AI powered and totally autonomous

China’s oil imports from Iran
Are the highest in a decade.
US gas exports to Mexico
Set a record high

China blocks Intel-Israel deal
We’re in a chip war, folks.

FINANCE

A return to a normal bond market
Could create a big financial asset pile up

Fortune 1000 CFO turnover is way up
Why are more CFOs abandoning ship?

Owner/managed-PE deals are flourishing
Do owners know something PE doesn’t?
While PE liquidity events are challenged

Bonds are back.
And so is Pimco

REAL ESTATE

Buffett is bullish on homebuilders
Redfin’s CEO, less so
Mortgage rates hit two-decade high
Housing affordability at four-decade low

SF real estate spirals even more
Property tax collections could collapse.

TECHNOLOGY

How Worldcoin is growing users.
Deception, exploiting workers and cash handouts 

SBF goes to jail
He tried to tamper with witnesses.

THE CHAT ON AI

AI chatbots can be a security disaster
AI makes it easier for bad guys

The AI power paradox
Can we learn how to govern it—before it’s too late?

AI imagines
If every state were a person

Does AI suck?
You be the judge.

THE NEXT NORMAL

People will not stop moving to the Sunbelt.
Here’s why

Homelessness in the US growing at record
What is this a symptom of?

Maybe Oliver Anthony knows.
“Rich Men North of Richmond”
Do his lyrics hit home? His song has.

Is Taylor Swift saving the US?
Can she save the world?

THE WAR ON CARBON

Ireland wants farmers to cull 200,000 cows
To save the earth from carbon.

Aramco has $100B gas project underway
The Saudis are not giving up on O&G.

Australia drilling a horizontal well
Will fracking technology go global?

THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION

The biggest environmental scandal in the world.
Offshore wind is killing whales

US goes big on atmospheric carbon removal
How does atmospheric carbon removal work?

Fracking was invented by O&G companies.
It could be very useful in geothermal

Geoengineering is warming the ocean
No one considers iatrogenics.

THE EV DREAM

A Vietnamese EV maker
Is now worth more than Ford or GM

Tesla cuts prices again
Is there a demand problem here?

China car makers
Want to demolish our cherished brands

Yet China has a big EV problem
Abandoned EVs are piling up in urban areas.

THE CHINA SYNDROME

The US-China breakup
In various charts
China reduces US Treasury holdings

China’s economic woes deepen
As the housing slump continues.
The yuan approaches a record low
The property crisis spreads
No more reporting on youth unemployment
It’s trying to inspire consumers to spend more
But they’re in a psycho-political funk
Population declined for first time in 61 years
They are an economic and social mess
Have they started a downward spiral?
And it’s hurting corporate America

THE WASHING-TONE

Biden hosts a Camp David summit
Aligning allies Japan and South Korea. 

Consumers win the subsidy lottery
Just quit oil and gas!

MAKING A BETTER YOU

10 rules for a good life
Aristotle’s wisdom from millennia ago.
The three rules for life
From the world’s happiest man.

Improve your memory
With smell therapy

Need a “mindcation”?
Try cooking

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

Drone photos of the year
Some pretty cool images.

Athletes keep getting better and better.
Here’s why

9 words that sound like insults
But aren’t!

IT’S VACATION TIME

The finest luxury hotels in the world
For when you win the lottery.

San Miguel de Allende
Is a magical place.

Italy has the most world heritage sites
The food ain’t too bad either.

SONG OF THE WEEK

“Wildfire”
The Heavy Hours
Lyrics are poetry, you know.

Bonus “music.”
The sounds of space

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

The recession that didn’t happen…yet
The Goodfellows talk it out.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

Heart of Stone trailer.
Is Gal Gadot the next Tom Cruise?

Wonka is coming for Christmas.
Timothée Chalamet as the chocolatier.

How to know what you want
What’s driving your desire?

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

Tuscan salmon with pasta
TikTok may be good for cooking.

Feta fried eggs for breakfast
Yammy!

Easy desserts
Add them to your cookbook.

THE RANDOMS

The more technology use expands, the more electricity we need. Hmmm…Is technology a big creator of climate change?

A problem with always-available internet access is that anyone can mouth-off about anything, anytime. The instantaneous ability to express one’s opinion disincentivizes thoughtfulness. 

Will the Ukraine war lead to an over building of global LNG capacity? 

China’s massive effort to grow its EV business may be less about reducing carbon and more about weaning themselves off imported oil. How might we be able to tell? China is in the process of a massive build out of coal-generated electricity. It has enough coal reserves to last at least the next five decades. And with a declining-to-collapsing population, those reserves could last much longer. 

In the meantime, China has a giant lead in what the West believes it needs: clean tech.

We probably can’t expect China to follow what the UN, EU and US demand they do with their energy. Why should any country fall in step with what other countries tell them to do?

In the meantime, oil demand is likely to explode in India, Africa and other parts of Asia. Although there’s lots of peak-oil-demand talk these days, actual peak oil demand may be decades in the offing. The IEA has now suggested oil demand may keep rising.

Maybe the more accurate thing to say is that we may not get anywhere close to peak carbon for several decades.

What’s going to replace the feel good TV series Ted Lasso?

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Did Fitch Have a Point After All?
August 11, 2023

Is a Soft Landing for Real?
August 4, 2023