Did Fitch Have a Point After All?

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity.
The optimist sees opportunity in every difficulty.
– Sir Winston Churchill

A BIG THINK

With the presidential election cycle in full swing, candidates are beginning to share their policy ideas. And, as these things go, these ideas are typically what candidates believe will best position them for electability. Meanwhile, we are bombarded with political “news,” making it hard to parse spin and propaganda from what’s best for the country—as opposed to what’s best for media revenue or politicians’ self-interest.

So let me cut through the noise and offer my two cents on the one policy position I believe the country needs and that I wish a candidate would embrace. 

Yes, that’s right, only one:

We need to inspire and incentivize the growth and sustainability of the nuclear family.

I believe this one policy will catalyze productive change that can solve our innumerable economic and social changes.

Today, almost 25% of children in the US are growing up in one-parent households.

Certainly there are some shining stars that shoot up from this adversity—like Tim Scott, senator and presidential candidate, and a seemingly all-around great guy. But the bulk of children who grow up with one parent endure serious economic, social, intellectual, and emotional challenges that can hinder their success for life.

In a single-parent household, there are just not enough economic and time resources to go around, leaving many of these kids without the environment needed to foster the common sense and productive values that can position them to thrive in a difficult world. If we could find ways to inspire and incentivize the growth and sustainability of the nuclear family, these would be the likely effects:

Improved educational outcomes.

This would lead to greater future economic prospects, which waterfalls into greater overall economic output for the country.

Fewer mental health problems. 

Better mental health enables higher self-esteem and better decision-making skills. This would result in less alcohol abuse and drug addiction, less crime, and less of a need for mental health services. This would also likely improve physical health and therefore reduce healthcare costs. 

By just “fixing” the nuclear family, this country would likely increase our overall economic output and reduce all manner of social safety net spending. 

So how’s this one policy for a winner? Increase revenue and decrease costs? Never mind improving countless lives.

By the way, presidential candidate Larry Elder seems to agree. The entire nine-minute video is worth a watch, but he discusses the breakdown of the family here. 

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

Fitch’s downgrade was widely dismissed
The reaction may say more than the downgrade itself.

Shipping giant is not optimistic.
Global trade is still contracting

Having a proactive economic policy
May not be such a bad thing

Lots of student debt won’t get paid off
According to bipartisan research.

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN

Latest CPI data
A slight increase from last month
Are we really in a soft landing?

The era of ultra-cheap stuff
May be in the rear view mirror

Food inflation remains sticky
Ukraine hitting Russian ships doesn’t help
Oil prices are rising again
And labor is demanding higher wages
Rising wages worry Larry Summers

THE LABOR VIEW

UPS workers got a big raise.
Now more people want to work there

Workers have complained a lot this year.
So employers plan to raise pay next year
Workers in Los Angeles are striking

Fully remote new hires
Show an 18% drop in productivity
Wait wait wait…
This study shows productivity rising

The US needs more skilled labor
Too many people want “soft” work.

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

A Catholic counter-revolution is underway.
Conservative values are on the rise in Europe

Europe’s natural gas prices rise 40%
More inflation on the horizon?
Germany has a longer-term nat gas problem

UK savers are selling investments.
Gotta pay the mortgage somehow

GLOBAL

Ecuadorian presidential candidate assassinated
Is the world entering a troubling period?

Will Argentina kick out the Peronists?
Conservative ideas making a comeback. 

$32T in annual global trade
Is going through a change blender

PLAYING WITH FIRE

Ukraine steps up its offense:

A drone bombs Russian warship
And then an oil tanker
Blast rocks Russian military optics plant
Moscow pestered by drone attacks
The war goes to the Black Sea
US cluster munitions change the war
Biden asks for $24B more for Ukraine

Ukraine amputations reach WWI level
Will the West ever trust Russia again? 

GEOPOLITICS IN FLUX

Ukraine joining the EU
Has monumental consequences

The global south stays neutral
They’re not picking sides in the Ukraine war.

Russia and China rattle Alaska
Their naval patrols come a little too close for comfort.
As they coordinate growth of BRICS

FINANCE

Stocks are “significantly overvalued”
Says Warren Buffett.

Public pension funds loaded up on private equity.
Will this prove to be a mistake?
PE investors are firm on return expectations
Yet they’re offering sweeteners to lure investors

Moody’s cuts US bank ratings
Rising funding costs and real estate issues.

REAL ESTATE

The luxury home market is collapsing
There are not enough new buyers.

Apartment owners are at risk.
$1T in debt is coming due

One real estate market stays robust.
America has a self-storage addiction

TECHNOLOGY

Weight loss drugs open an era of super drugs.
Lose weight, maybe reduce cardiac risk with Wegovy
While Ozempic may also cure addiction

Amazon wants to deliver your orders without boxes
And it’ll have all kinds of ripple effects.

India curbs laptop imports
It wants Indians to buy locally-made devices.

THE CHAT ON AI

The AI race has unleashed
All manner of chaos

Criminals are embracing AI
And it’s not good for you.

AI will be center of future financial crisis
Predicts SEC chairman.

THE NEXT NORMAL

Immigrant founders juice the US economy.
From which countries do they come?

Only 14% of Baby Boomers
Have $100K in retirement savings.

The problem with hyper individualism
Well, there’s no collaboration and cooperation.

THE WAR ON CARBON

Power industry not happy with EPA
Newly proposed EPA rules are not workable.

The O&G industry has a talent void
Another reason for more consolidation.

Net zero may have been a good idea.
Until we hit rough economic waters

THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION

The wind industry is in crisis
Costs are ballooning.
Siemens is about to lose $4+B

Solar panel supply chain goes opaque
They don’t want you to know about slave labor.

THE EV DREAM

Tesla’s CFO resigns
Usually a bad omen.

Musk says Cybertruck is best product ever
Would Joe Sixpack agree?

BYD, the new king of EVs
They’ve surpassed Tesla sales in China.

THE CHINA SYNDROME

Deflation grips China
As China’s exports collapse
And its largest RE developer hits a debt crisis
China’s government needs to spend money
Fiscal stimulus may be their best path.

Investors keep leaving China.
Now they’re going to Japan
Yet Japan automakers struggle in China

China’s latest problem…
No one wants to go there

THE WASHING-TONE

Biden to limit US investments in China
Isn’t that a major MAGA policy?
China left with few options

Why US debt will continue to rise
Is it because of the rise in income inequality?

The US fumbled the ball in Niger
Giving Russia an opening.

MAKING A BETTER YOU

Gratitude is good for you
It improves your wellbeing.

Much of life is accidental
Maybe that’s how we learn.

How spirituality protects the brain
Win back happiness!

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

Animals understand the world differently.
It all starts with the shape of their pupils
By the way, why do dogs tilt their heads?

What kids think 2050 will be like.
Flying skateboards, metal trees, and no gravity!

Disney turns to sports betting
And then raises streaming prices
There’s trouble in the Magic Kingdom.

SONG OF THE WEEK

“The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down”
By The Band.
Lyrics are poetry, you know.
RIP, Robbie Robertson.
The Band’s top 10 songs

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

Are we in a pre-war era?
Bari Weiss visits with academic Walter Russell Mead.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

Presidential candidate Larry Elder speaks in Iowa
This is a short, must-watch speech.

ESPN has some new sports for you…
TeqBall
Corgi racing
Slippery stairs
Slamball
Dodgeball
Ultimate frisbee

The James Webb Telescope
Captures a dying star

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

Cool things about bees and honey
Who knew?!

The perfect poached egg
Bring it on!

The pizza taking over the US.
Thin crust, lots of toppings

THE RANDOMS

WeWork hints it may not survive. Is the meme investment world about to collapse? If so, will Bitcoin be next? What else?

Women’s drinking has become a problem and is catching up with men’s drinking problem. Not quite the equality women have been fighting for.

What if the current global heat wave has nothing to do with carbon emissions? If so, science has totally missed something we should better understand. Why didn’t Al Gore and the United Nations tell us this kind of heat wave would happen in 2023?

Think about this: We are being taught to hate carbon. Carbon is evil. Now consider the consequences of this becoming a prevailing view.

A recent article in Science magazine suggests that the effort to reduce emissions from ocean-going ships is actually warming the ocean. And there you go!

Will climate strategies create more climate problems?

There is one group of people in this country that we can’t live without: farmers. Without farmers, we would have no food. So do you think it could be a good idea to have farmers give us some advice on how to run the country?  

In the 16th century, artists shifted from painting elites to painting peasants. Could this have been a catalyst for the subsequent revolutions?

The BRICS alliance is growing, but most of the joiners are autocrats. Can autocrats support each other, or will a BRICS “alliance” be similar to criminals in prison joining forces?

A friend sent me an interesting TikTok, in which the creator said that “white people did not create slavery, but they ended it.” Oh me, oh my!

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Is a Soft Landing Real?
August 4, 2023

What Has Saved Our Economy?
July 28, 2023