Is the Dollar About to Be Replaced?

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

We’re going to need oil…at least another decade.
– President Biden in State of the Union address

THOUGHTS FROM DOUG

It certainly looks like the investor world wants to return to a pre-covid 2019 trend line. Is that really going to happen, or has one economic era ended and a new one begun?

How about these changes: No more ever-lower interest rates, inflation rather than deflation concerns, no more lower global wages, no more ever-more productive supply chains, no more friendly geopolitics and maybe no more cheap energy and minerals.  

Relations with China are getting more strained. The spy balloon has certainly created friction. Now the US is looking at more tech export restrictions. And China has just pulled out of a global undersea cable project. Can we pull back from this slippery slope?

Just a reminder that WWII was really two wars, one in Europe and one in Asia. Hmmm…

A lot of small business owners are naturally bearish because they are always looking for the risks that could destroy their business.  

Although it can be helpful to consider what you coulda, woulda or shoulda done, it’s probably best to focus most of your thinking on what you’re gonna do.

Predictions for last week’s jobs report were less than 200,000, yet the jobs report came in at 540,000. Whoa buddy! Either someone at the BLS pressed the wrong keys on the keyboard, or the Fed is about to unleash the kraken on investors.

Imagine how much electricity is going to cost if everyone drives an EV.

Will AI be the next bubble?

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

Hard landing, soft landing?
Or rolling recession?

GDP growth barely above zero
Per the St. Louis Fed.

2022 US trade deficit hits record
So much for near-term re-shoring.

January’s giant job surge
Really worries Larry Summers

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN

Maersk projects a collapse in profits
As global trade retreats.

Goldman sees oil at $100+
Russia to cut oil production
Do higher oil prices mean higher inflation??

Will copper prices start spiking
Because of unrest in Peru?

THE LABOR VIEW

New jobless claims are still low
Job market still seems healthy.

Wage growth is falling
According to the Atlanta Fed.

Leisure and hospitality lead job growth
While tech and finance are doing layoffs.
Which industry pays better wages?

The top 20 global dream jobs
Do you have one?

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

Europe announces the Green Deal
To counter the US IRA.

UK socialized healthcare service
Is in a crisis
More UK folks forced to go private

The limits of pacifism
It’s bothering Germany.

PLAYING WITH FIRE

Is Russia about to unleash hell?
Better do so before spring time.

Moldova’s government collapses
Is Russia behind this?

Zelensky makes UK visit
How about some jet fighters?

A big Russian ally in Ukraine war
Is China

GLOBAL

Is the dollar about to be replaced
With a bi-polar currency world?

Mexican border warehouses booming
More friendshoring investment.

Global corruption is spreading.
Click link to see country by country

THE FINANCE WORLD

Is the IPO market coming back?
Two new offerings provide momentum.

The US Treasury is worried
About cloud computing.

Banks tighten credit standards
Not economically helpful.

The next big investment risks
According to some big experts.

REAL ESTATE

Is the housing freeze starting to thaw?
Goldman seems to think so
Let’s check back later this year.

The hot housing market for Americans
Is now in Spain

Who is home equity rich?
Check out the state map

TECHNOLOGY

Banning “forever chemicals”
Could really disrupt chip-making.

Busting up big tech.
Germany is leading the way

The VC valuation reckoning
Is coming soon

THE CHAT ON CHAT

Microsoft CEO talks up ChatGPT
Talking his book, you think?
Great review of ChatGPT-powered Bing

Google tests Bard, their new chatbot
It already made a $100MM mistake
Is Google’s search dominance waning?

Chatbots have real legal issues
AI lawsuits are just starting

Estimated global search ad revenue
Is headed to $400B annually
Will chatbots change the search game?

THE CRYPTO MEME

Binance
A new king of crypto trading

Bitcoin is back, baby
Get rich quick…again.

Is crypto’s price being propped up?
There’s a good argument here

THE NEXT NORMAL

Single women own more homes
Than single men.

The legal cannabis industry crumbles
While the illegal market remains robust

US tops the world in health care costs
Can anyone figure out health care?

THE WAR ON CARBON

LA ditching nat gas for hydrogen
But will it work?

BP takes a new stand
They will still invest big in hydrocarbons.

Europe’s wind industry
Is starting to stumble

THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION

Europe wants more solar power
But China controls the industry.

Electrochemistry
Is it in our energy future?

Russia wants India
To pay for oil not in dollars

THE EV DREAM

Biden broadens EV tax credit
Now they are less overpriced.
New cars are way overpriced

EVs’ future depends on made-in-America batteries. 
Here’s what the manufacturing looks like

Germany to build Mexican battery plant
Mexico looks well poised for friendshoring.

THE CHINA SYNDROME

What’s booming in China?
Gambling in Macau
Chinese consumers hoard cash

US may put missiles in Japan
How will China react?

China, a positive or negative influence?
Here’s how the world sees it

BALLOONING FOR SPORT?

US destroys Chinese spy balloon.
Here’s the path it took
200 feet high, with an airline-sized payload
And it was a spy balloon
A new F-22 destroyed the balloon
Is that what China wanted to see?

Why not use satellites instead of a balloon?
Here’s a possible explanation

THE WASHING-TONE

Biden wants a billionaire tax
Can we call it “windfall profits”?

And a stock buyback tax increase
Hitting the investor class. 

Washington turns hostile on crypto
Let the market sort it out?

MAKING A BETTER YOU

Some great life advice
From an 80 year old.

The best sport for your brain
Is Orienteering.

Talking with friends
Improves our well being

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

The NFL juggernaut
In 4 charts.

The most romantic getaways
In each of the 50 states.

Metal detectors can find treasures
Like this 500-year-old gold heart

SONG OF THE WEEK

Ambient music is the new go to
Here’s a good channel

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

“The Return of Power and Great Power Competition”
Geopolitical expert Robert Kaplan describes a new world order.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

Amazon makes Air.
The Nike-Michael Jordan story.

The panspermia theory
Did earth life come from elsewhere?

February, the honest month
Gotta love it!

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

February can be miserably cold.
Here are some great soup recipes

Valentine’s Day is next week.
Maybe fix some Steak Diane.

Some super Super Bowl snacks
Not yet time to start your diet.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Disneyland for Investors Is Over
February 3, 2023

The Geothermal Sleep Giant
January 27, 2023