Disruptive Science Is Declining

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed
is more important than any other.
– Abraham Lincoln

DOUG’S THOUGHTS ON INFLATION

There seem to be several potential influences that could keep driving inflation. 

If China’s economy starts humming again, rising demand for natural resources like copper and oil could drive those prices higher. Higher natural resource prices naturally waterfall throughout an economy. 

The growth of EVs will increase the demand for and price of many minerals, which could drive EV prices higher. This would lead to higher transportation vehicle prices.

The more EVs on the street, the more demand for electricity, which would likely drive electricity prices higher. The cost of electricity waterfalls throughout an economy.

Workers naturally demand higher wages after they’ve been pinched by inflation. Demands for higher wages may be just beginning. Higher wages will likely result in higher goods and services prices.

Government intervention in industry also tends to contribute to inflation. Consider two economic sectors that the government greatly influences: education and medical care. Costs in both of these sectors have risen much faster than overall inflation. Now the government wants more control over energy.

The growth of globalization was deflationary for many manufactured goods. The breakdown of globalization will likely result in the opposite.

Because of the base effect, inflation may subside over the next few months. That said, there are other influences that could cause it to rise again and/or keep goods and services prices permanently higher.

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

CEOs see short recession
Lots of folks hope they’re right.
Especially the middle class

Corporate earnings are falling
Will rising unemployment follow?

The growth of consumer credit
It’s like an Eveready battery.
Households struggle to pay bills

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN

Copper prices are rising again
So is oil
These costs waterfall all over economy.

Inflation slows to 6.5%
Sixth straight month of decline.
Yet medical cost increases are coming

Forget core CPI.
Focus on “supercore inflation”

THE LABOR VIEW

Microsoft sets new vacation benchmark
Unlimited time off.

Human capital trends
Deloitte looks at labor trends.

Pre-pandemic employment vs. today
Which sectors have gained and lost?

US approval of unions
Is at its highest level since 1965.
Gen Z is the most pro union

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

Germany has a hot labor market
This should cause EU interest rates to rise.

Turkey blocks Sweden
In its desire to enter NATO.

UK military needs more money
Is defense the new growth industry?
The UK is a mess right now

PLAYING WITH FIRE

Russia shuffles military leadership
As it depends more on the Wagner Group
Scrambling for a better strategy.
Are Western tanks headed to Ukraine?

EU oil sanctions
Cost Russia $172MM a day

Putin girds Russia for long fight
As he looks for big company financial support
War, Russia, just another day at the office.

GLOBAL

The globe’s most congested cities
Chicago is #2?

Mexico City wants digital nomads
So locals are learning English and more.

Why Finland is the happiest country
Maybe because of what they don’t do.

THE FINANCE WORLD

Leveraged debt
A growing problem on Wall Street

Remember value investing?
Well, it’s back

Volatility laundering
Private equity’s down market game.

The “everything bubble” has popped
So what’s the right valuation now?

REAL ESTATE

One crazy looking apartment building
Goes up in Vancouver.

Zillow CEO throws down the gauntlet.
Office space is the new typewriter

Inflation may subside.
But rents look to stay high

TECHNOLOGY

What is ChatGPT?
Will it dominate internet search?
Microsoft thinks it might

Tech was cute, crazy and cool at CES
Is this what we call progress?
A patent perspective on CES
Global patent growth explodes
IBM is no longer top dog

10 2023 breakthrough technologies
MIT’s got their eye on these.
New chip design could change everything

THE CRYPTO MEME

Untangling the FTX mess
Could take a decade.
Yet they just found $5B in liquid assets

Coinbase to cut 1,000 jobs
To survive another day…or two?
SEC sues two crypto lenders

Crypto trading has collapsed
So now what?

THE NEXT NORMAL

Disruptive science is declining
No one knows why, though.

Creating an AI “wife”
Could be right around the corner

Teaching kids to spot misinformation
But who decides what’s misinformation?

THE WAR ON CARBON

A new approach to carbon that works
Turning it into biodegradable plastic.

Climate policy is not our job
Says Fed Chairman Powell.

US carbon emissions grew in 2022
Even as renewables surpassed coal.

THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION

China commits to large oil & gas investing
They’re concerned with energy security.

Australia LNG exports are big
$90B worth in 2022.

Norway O&G production
Is close to a record high

THE EV DREAM

Chinese battery makers dominate
But recycling lithium batteries
Isn’t going to be so easy.

If EVs go global
China will be the big winner

THE CHINA SYNDROME

Xi’s big plan
To revive the economy and win back friends.
And tighten his grip on tech companies

In one Chinese province
90% of people have covid

Foreign investors keep leaving
Can China avoid becoming a pariah?

THE WASHING-TONE

Supreme Court case worries Google
It could upend the whole internet.

The House speaker battle
May signal more turmoil to come
The debt ceiling could be next

The federal government’s woke manual
Teaching soldiers their new “values.”

Should we have compulsory military service?
Here’s what other countries do

MAKING A BETTER YOU

The science of luck
Yep, there’s science behind it.

You can change your personality
Start small, and take baby steps.

The quiet profundity
Of everyday awe

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

When Americans are happiest
Life satisfaction changes with age.

Why was Roman concrete so durable?
It sure has lasted a long time.

States’ population growth since 2000
One state actually lost population.

SONG OF THE WEEK

“Heart Full of Soul”
RIP Jeff Beck.
Lyrics are poetry, you know.
Beck plays on Letterman in 1999

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

The tech reset has only just begun
PayPal cofounder lays it all out.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

Visit ancient Greece
In 18  minutes.

Building your own log cabin
This teenager did it…by himself.

San Francisco on a bike
Crazy bike riding fun.

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

How best to get rid of a Christmas tree?
Just eat it

Michelin star dining
Is no longer sustainable

Yummy winter salads
It’s New Year’s resolution time!

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Has China Tech Broken Encryption?
January 6, 2022

The Weird Year in Charts
December 30, 2022