12 Lessons on Money

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

The so-called golden era is over.
–New UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak sounds the alarm over China

THOUGHTS FROM DOUG

The stock market is not the economy and certainly shouldn’t be.

The scale of EV charging stations we need will likely have the throughput capacity of a small town. Just sayin’.

Cheap, easy and even free money (negative interest rates) is gone. The tulips are dying.

Looks like Sam Bankman-Fried’s defense for losing investors billions is that he didn’t know what he was doing. Who else among our “leaders” doesn’t know what they are doing?

Last week, my second Thanksgiving meal was a dinner party, in which old friends got to meet some new friends. One new couple was from France. Another new friend was from South Africa. I asked these new acquaintances what people in their home countries think of America’s Thanksgiving holiday. They shared that people are envious that we have such a holiday. It appears that people around the world think it’s good to pause and celebrate being thankful.

Colleges have a large looming problem: The population of college-aged folks is about to crash.

Is the great restaurant boom of the last 30 years about to end? If so, where will all the tatted up people get jobs?

How can China’s economy struggle and Europe’s go into a recession and the US just have a “soft landing”?

“Buy the dips” used to be the best stock investing strategy. Is the new best strategy “sell the rallies”?

Are oil and gas companies more dependent on today’s technology than today’s technology companies are dependent on oil and gas?

Will investing in the defense and energy industries drown out ESG in the coming years?

You think we’ll have an LNG glut in a few years?

War in Ukraine. Europe in crisis. Iran protests. China protests. The United States looks pretty calm, safe, and free by comparison, doesn’t it?

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

US adds 263K jobs
Unemployment rate stays low.

Fed chair says rate hikes to slow
The stock market celebrates!
While private hiring is slowing down

Leading economic indicators decline
We’re on a six-month decline trend.
Home price index also declining
While Q3 GDP revised upwards
And consumers stay resilient

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN

Food inflation is starting to ease
Says Kroger.

Inflation fight could last past 2023
Suggests a Fed regional president.

Global inflation may have peaked
Eurozone inflation declines somewhat
Yet metals prices are starting to rise again
Goldman expects oil to hit $110
Anticipating China’s covid policy retreat?

THE LABOR VIEW

Their pay is unfair.
So say two-thirds of workers

US jobless claims fall
Job market remains strong.

Most employers not doing layoffs—yet
Will a dam soon burst?

Pay more, work less
Is this the future of work?

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

EU ready to support its industries
As manufacturing keeps contracting
And energy costs pinch European industries
Will they move to the US?

ECB will continue increasing rates
According to their central bank president.

China’s EVs invade Europe
They may be better than Europe’s EVs.

England and Wales
No longer have Christian majorities

PLAYING WITH FIRE

Europe’s sought after oil price cap
Could roil markets.

Russia’s factory economy is growing
Building more war machinery?
Russia is using old cruise missiles

Europe’s imports of Russian LNG hit a record
Russia is still selling fuel.
Here’s who’s buying it
Yet Russian oil logistics are a mess

GLOBAL

India’s economy grows 6.3%
Are they the next China?

Favorite toy in every country
Check out the map.

The %-of-yearly-salary iPhone cost
In different countries around the world.

A NEW WORLD ORDER?

Iran to sync power grid with Russia
And other like-minded neighbors.

Japan may want some US Tomahawks
To update their military defenses.

The US and Europe get trade cozy
Friendshoring, here we come.

THE FINANCE WORLD

12 lessons on money
From Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger.

Banks rush to dump their hung debt
Take losses this year ‘cause next year…
As junk bonds rally a bit

Corporate debt default rate
Should double in a mild recession

Collateralized fund obligations
PE isn’t talking about them, but…

REAL ESTATE

Bill Gates recently spent $13.5MM
To buy 2,100 acres of ND farmland

Farmland prices
A year-over-year review.

Blackstone has a fund problem
People want out of a $125B property fund.

THE TECH WRECK

Tech selloff hits private companies
Valuations are collapsing everywhere.
Hiring and recruiting boom ends

Tech has lost $7.4 TRILLION this year
How did this happen?

The $4.7B IOU
What Softbank’s founder owes the firm.

THE TECH FRONTIER

How would you look in ancient Greece?
This AI app will show you

Are smart bandages almost here?
Enhancing the healing process.

Totally automated farming is coming
By 2030, predicts Deere.
While they roll in the profits

THE CRYPTO MEME

SBF didn’t know what he was doing
Yet “smart” investors still gave him $2B
And he may have lost clients $11B

On “the road to irrelevance”
What the ECB says about bitcoin.

Lending anywhere in crypto
Looks like a terrible idea.

Explaining the FTX collapse
Simple terms for simple people.

THE NEXT NORMAL

Police in SF get killer robots
Here comes Robocop.

Online social networks are getting smaller
About to get much, much smaller?

The sperm count collapse
See it in graphic form.

THE WAR ON CARBON

Eating insects can reduce climate change
Advice from your global bureaucracy.

Electric planes can fly.
Just not far enough

The science determining climate damage
Is still unsettled.

THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION

There’s not enough wind in Europe
And it’s getting colder.

The biggest LNG exporters
Are there any up-and-comers?

Europe LNG import capacity to grow
By a third before 2025.
Greece eyes more LNG import terminals
Global LNG contracts are sold out
Through 2026.

THE EV DREAM

Tesla’s EV market share
Could fall from 79% to 20% soon

The cost of the EV revolution
Looks like a lot more pollution.

Dig dig dig and dig some more
We don’t have enough copper.
But new tech may expand production

THE CHINA SYNDROME

The blank sheet of paper protest
What does it mean?

China Covid cases growing again
Why are they so behind the rest of the world?
Their economic indicators keep falling

Canada calls out China
As a disruptive global actor.
UK prime minister says same
While Xi tries to act like the nice guy

THE WASHING-TONE

Looks like the railroad strike won’t happen
No new inflation here.

The Pentagon’s audit goes bust
They can’t find 61% of their assets.

Germany and France join forces
Against Biden’s IRA.
Biden says he’s open to “tweaks”

MAKING A BETTER YOU

The blue light from electronics
Is quite bad for you

How books change our brains
Read to be better at thinking.

15 ways to jump ahead of others
Lead the pack, rather than follow.

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

2022 Spotify trends
Top songs, artists and podcasts.

2022 robot gift guide
Time to join the future?

2022 top gifs and clips
Any of these familiar to you?

SONG OF THE WEEK

“Songbird”
RIP, Christine McVie of Fleetwood Mac.
Lyrics are poetry, you know.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

One Breath Around the World
Like watching underwater ballet.

Wednesday Addams
The new quirky Addams Family series.

Isola del Giglio
A little mindcation animation.

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

The best cheese in the world
Winner of the 2022 World Cheese Awards.

Countries where fish is (rarely) on the menu
Half the world’s fish supply is farmed

Is chocolate having a moment?
In recessions, people may buy more.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Everything in Tech Is Collapsing
November 25, 2022

Americans have $5T in Cash
November 18, 2022