What’s Killing the Golden Goose?

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

People with high expectations have very low resilience.
Nvidia’s CEO, Jensen Huang

THINKING OUT LOUD

What’s Killing The Golden Goose?

Are the US and Europe in the process of destroying their global economic and political influence?

There are eight billion people in the world. A little over one billion of them live in the US and Europe. That means seven billion live elsewhere. Why do these seven billion even care what the one billion think?

The Iranians and their Middle East proxies obviously don’t care what Europe and the United States think. Israel may act like it cares what Europe and the United States think, but Israel may not make the mistake, yet one more time, of letting Islamic extremists stay in power.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shows they obviously don’t care what Europe and the United States think. Sanctions have not destroyed the Russian economy. Instead they are finding economic workarounds globally.

India is playing both sides of the Ukraine war, so obviously it doesn’t quite care what Europe and the United States think. Like China, India now sees seven billion potential customers to improve the economic status of their one billion citizens. And, like China, India has a ton of cheap labor.

China provides massive aid to Africa and is a solid trade partner with South American countries. Even the new Libertarian leader in Argentina says he’s going to keep to their China trade policies.

The growing BRICS alliance shows that a lot of the seven billion are looking for a way around European and United States influence.

Why are so many in the world stepping away from Europe and the United States? The simple answer may be European and American arrogance, just plain arrogance. It’s like an aged parent who has lost touch with the new reality his children see coming. Just look at how Israel is getting scolded by the “parents of their conception.”

The deeper answer may be cost. China can produce cheap products. India can produce cheap products and services. Europe and the United States cannot produce cheap products or services because of their massive regulatory infrastructures as well as their rising cost of energy because of climate change policies.

China can produce a $10,000 car. Europe and the US cannot. You think Europe or the US can be cost competitive with much of anything?

China now can make airliners, while Boeing is sinking in bureaucratic quicksand.

China, India, Africa and the Middle Eastern countries do not care about other countries’ climate policies.

Who do you think the seven billion looking to grow their own economies are going to do business with going forward?

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

Hiring blows by expectations
Will we get any interest rate cuts this year?

Stock market gains almost 30% in 12 months
Is this the stimulus behind our economy?

US consumer sentiment jumps
Is that because the stock market is up?
Pending homes sales rise

US manufacturing activity grows
The Fed may have a dilemma coming.

INFLATION, DEFLATION, OR BOTH?

Treasury rates are rising
So are gold and oil.
Could higher oil prices spur inflation?
Just in time for summer driving season

February’s inflation was reasonable
Yet my healthcare costs increased 9%.
No hurry to cut rates, says Fed chair

Deflation peaks out in Europe
Rate cuts could come soon.

THE LABOR VIEW

This week’s job openings data
Suggest the job market remains healthy

Dramatic job changes over last 80 years
Have separated people into upper and lower classes

Switching employers gets you a bigger raise
Is putting money first the best career decision?

McKinsey pays workers to leave
Bain asks workers to become yoga instructors
Is the consulting biz in trouble?

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

Germany to speed up arms purchases
The world is becoming less safe.

Italy’s birth rate at historic low
Who will take care of the aged?

Climate change helps Europe.
Warmer winters mean less energy needs

THE GLOBAL GAME

The global economy is improving
Will that result in higher energy demand?

Italy’s Meloni seems to be doing well.
Will more of Europe follow her lead?

South Korea’s economy keeps growing
Taking away some of China’s trade partners?

THE UKRAINE FIRE

Russia tries to sabotage European railways
So says the Czech transport minister.

Ukraine lowers age for conscription
They’re desperate for soldiers.

Russia ups its disinformation game
Brainwashing still works.
Russians back Putin’s take on terror attack
But didn’t Russia start this war?

THE GAZA FIRE

Israeli strike kills aid workers
War isn’t without unintended collateral loss.
Biden threatens Israel with Gaza aid

Biden wants to sell Israel F-15s
$18B in US revenue!

Iranian general killed in Syria
Who do you think gets blamed?
Iran vows to retaliate
Israel scrambles GPS signals

THE SLIPPERY SLOPE

Germany considers national service
They need more NATO influence.

Giant earthquake in Taiwan
Calling all conspiracy theorists!

Russia helps North Korea
So North Korea can help Russia.

FINANCE

Deepfakes are coming to financial sector
Maybe we all should invest in coffee cans.

LPs are selling PE stakes at a discount
Maybe the discount is today’s fair price.

Teenagers flood into the stock market
Is this a giant red flag?

Retirement wave booms
As the stock market booms.

REAL ESTATE

Mend, extend and pretend
Banks’ real estate strategy.

Home insurance costs to set record
Unaffordable gets more unaffordable

The next new tech trend
May be dumbing down your house

TECHNOLOGY

Think the internet sucks?
It’s gonna get worse

One satellite signal rules modern life
One? How fragile is that?

Streaming saved the music industry
But who is really making the money?

THE CHAT ON AI

AI can read the NYT for you
When will it interpret the articles for you?

Will Google charge for AI search?
You mean they don’t make enough money?

AI has big legal challenges ahead
The lawsuits have only just begun.

OpenAI can mimic your voice
What can of worms does this open?

OUR GOOD FRIEND, FAILURE

Apple explores next big thing—robots
After car and VR efforts stumble.

Amazon’s “Just Walk Out” technology
Has proven a bust

Snapchat feeds teen insecurity
Has social media turned monstrous?

THE NEXT NORMAL

Gen Z becoming the tool-belt generation
Hey, these kids are pretty smart!
While colleges go all in on AI
Sensing a bigger cultural divide?

Virginia governor vetoes pot bill
And has good data supporting him.

School absences have exploded
Surely this isn’t good for society.

THE WAR ON CARBON

More US oil coming
Ohio’s Utica shale is unleashed.

EU carbon tariffs
Could bifurcate global LNG biz

Making concrete has a major carbon footprint
Lots of money and effort try to reduce it.

THE ENERGY TRANSITION

Michigan nuclear plant to restart.
Here’s what it will take to do so
Nuclear plants are lasting longer

India curbs solar panel imports
Looking to build its own industry.
The world has too many solar cell factories
Prices are plummeting.

US could triple bioenergy capacity
Suggests new study.

THE EV DREAM

EV minerals mining
Threatens African gorillas and chimps

Tesla has another China rival.
Almost 90,000 orders in 24 hours
While BYD has a stellar quarter
Tesla deliveries are falling
BYD sales decline
Tesla needs a massive restructuring
Is the EV fad over?

Ford delays new EV launch
We need more government incentives.

THE CHINA SYNDROME

Macau is booming
China’s industrial economy growing again
China’s service economy is growing, too
Is China’s economy on the rebound?
Flood of cheap China goods is coming

China targets SE Asia
As a market for its new airliner.

US sanctioned Chinese tech company.
And now its profits are booming

THE WASHING-TONE

Billionaire TikTok investor
Is strong-arming Republicans

Democrat voter coalition is fraying
The working class are not happy.

New truck emissions regulation
Will likely influence inflation.

THE ELECTION DISTRACTION

Read my lips…
Immigration is the top voter issue

Chicago may not be Democrat friendly
Is a rerun of 1968 in the cards?

Wall Street and Silicon Valley elites
Are warming up to Trump

MAKING A BETTER YOU

A new way to improve your marriage.
Sleep like you’re roommates

Trusting your gut feelings
May have a physiological connection

Intermittent fasting and heart health.
Here are some cardiologists’ perspectives

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

When do we start developing empathy?
Before the age of two!!!

The stork and the fisherman
An unlikely bond enchants Turkey.
Here’s a link to the documentary

ADHD, a complicated history
Is it out of control?

SONG OF THE WEEK

Justin Timberlake still has game.
Nice, little Tiny Desk concert

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

How the working class became America’s second class
Bari Weiss interviews Newsweek’s opinion editor.

Bonus pod…

Smartphones rewired our kids’ brains.
Social psychologist Jonathan Haidt has an answer

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

The Delinquents trailer
A deliciously bizarre heist movie.

A Gentleman in Moscow trailer
Ewan McGregor in full form.

Godzilla x Kong trailer
A box office darling.

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

Assassin’s Spaghetti
Oh man…oh man!

Top condiments of the world
Many that I’ve never tried.

Everyone should eat more cottage cheese
The new hot food…cottage cheese?

THE RANDOMS

How many folks know that nuclear power generates about 20% of US electricity?

Massive illegal immigration into the US has likely been economically stimulating. It’s lowered labor costs or slowed down wage increases. And it’s added millions of new consumers to our market. Population growth almost always leads to economic growth.

Mississippi has the lowest GDP per capita of all US states. It’s $49,000. Did you know that the UK’s GDP per capita is even lower, at $46,000? And France? Well their GDP per capita is around $40,000. Do you think Mississippi should replace these countries in the G7 and/or the United Nations?

By the way, Israel’s GDP per capita is around $55,000.

EU GDP per capita was $37,044 in 2008 and $37,155 in 2022. So in 14 years Europe has barely budged its per-citizen output. You think that has to do with too much regulation or too much focus on climate? Or what?

China’s climate chief just suggested global economic competition will increase climate problems. Sounds like he wants sovereign competitors to stop building their industries so China can dominate them. How dumb do the Chinese think Western countries are?

Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin’s reasons for vetoing marijuana bill: “States following this path have seen adverse effects on children’s and adolescents’ health and safety, increased gang activity and violent crime, significant deterioration in mental health, decreased road safety, and significant costs associated with retail marijuana that far exceed tax revenue.” 

Since sanctions were lifted, Venezuela’s Maduro has only increased his autocratic grip on the country. But it appears President Biden will not return sanctions because it would hurt his reelection effort. Conclusion: Expect a lot more Venezuelans at our Southern border.

The EPA’s new rules are meant to significantly reduce tailpipe emissions, which will force automakers to make more EVs and hybrids than ICE vehicles. What might be the unintended consequences of this regulation? How about skyrocketing ICE demand and prices? How about higher used car prices? How about fewer new cars sold by automakers? How about a gold mine for ICE vehicle repair shops?

Is it coincidental that inflation subsided as the cost of oil and gas subsided?

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

When Guilt Goes Pagan
March 29, 2024

The Future of Lazy
March 22, 2024