We’re All Guinea Pigs Now

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

The difference between successful people and really successful people is that really successful people say no to almost everything.
– Warren Buffett

THOUGHTS FROM DOUG

The search for ever cheaper global labor is over. The globalization that kept making supply chains ever more efficient is over. The general geopolitical cooperation of the recent past is over. Climate change policy is only going to increase the cost of energy. If these statements are accurate, then inflation, not deflation, may be a force we have to reckon with for years to come.

Will interest rates be higher for longer?

A great thought from an old friend: When inflation surfaced in the 1980s, we were NOT worried about being woke, we were worried about going broke.

Bob Farrell’s Rule #9: When all the experts and forecasts agree, something else is going to happen.

Have chatbots and AI replaced crypto as the new meme obsession? If so, will they be as beneficial to humans as crypto? Here are a tech veteran’s fears.

One of the greatest things about our new AI chatbot world is that they allow us to dialog directly with the internet. Chatbots quickly respond to our questions because of their ability to instantly scan everything on the internet for answers. And, as we all already know, everything on the internet is true, right?

What’s that old saying…garbage in, garbage out?

Can the impoverished actually be happy? Maybe so.

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

Auto debt piles higher
Some owe more than their car is worth.
Subprime auto lender goes bust

Mortgage applications at 28-year low
As rates approach 7%
So construction keeps falling

Leading economic indicators
Keep falling

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN

Inflation and volatility will remain high
Says this hedge fund king.

Ocean shipping industry slumps
Did they over build capacity?

Apartment rents start to fall
This should help CPI.

Luxury watch prices are falling fast
Why does anyone need a watch?

THE LABOR VIEW

Is the labor market cooling?
Job postings are shrinking.
Productivity is shrinking, too

Americans turn to part-time work
Burned out, or is it what’s available?

The Challenger Report
Layoffs up 440% from last January.

Part-time executive jobs
Could be your next career move.

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

The Dutch may be world’s best farmers
And their government might destroy them

Travel and tourism
Contribute greatly to Europe’s economy

The Northern Ireland Brexit deal
At a glance.

German economy contracts 0.4%
And they are Europe’s economic engine.

GLOBAL

India’s GDP outpaces China’s
Is India the new China?

Commodity prices and a strong dollar
Have negative global consequences.

Buy yourself residency
In these countries.

PLAYING WITH FIRE

Russia loses another tank battle
Are they just inept?
Here’s a Ukraine battle map
Have Ukrainian troops entered Russia?

Swiss bankers hide Putin’s fortune
Ever neutral Switzerland, right?

Chinese microchips
Are making it into Russia

European leaders want Ukraine defense pact
As a start to negotiating war’s end.

THE NEW COLD WAR

Is the UAE skirting Russian sanctions?
It’s a good possibility.

Belgium has a cyber security problem
It comes from China.

The West is trying to isolate Russia.
It’s not working

THE FINANCE WORLD

Oaktree raises $10B credit fund
And perhaps in the nick of time.
As Wall Street chokes on bad loans
Bank profits are down
Over $1T of US leveraged loans
Have to be refinanced, or something.

ESG backlash gains momentum
Is ESG just another meme obsession?

Warren Buffett’s annual letter
2023 wasn’t a great year.

TECHNOLOGY

We’re all guinea pigs
For tech companies’ “innovation.”

YouTube to offer AI tools
AI is becoming ubiquitous.

Is biocomputing on the horizon?
If so, it comes with consequences.

THE CHAT ON CHAT

Is ChatGPT on LSD?
It “hallucinated” articles in a search response

Search is going to permanently change
For better or worse.

Train a chatbot
To do your job.

THE NEXT NORMAL

Earth’s inner core is slowing its spin
Another item to add to the apocalypse list.

Is the apocalypse nigh?
Concern for the future is at an all-time high.

What happens when people in Western countries age?
Pay attention to Japan
The WHO’s thoughts on aging

The debt addicts
Are people in their 30s.

THE WAR ON CARBON

Greta Thunberg protests a wind farm
Only she knows perfection.

The EU can’t agree
On a date to eliminate fossil fuels.
Nor when to stop making ICE vehicles

NatGas stove study debunks panic
Not responsible for respiratory illness.

THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION

China is using more coal.
But their emissions could be falling
They approved record number of coal plants

America wants to electrify
Without enough electricians

BP CEO wants more investment in O&G
It’s good for the climate fight.

THE EV DREAM

To make enough EV batteries
We may have to destroy the ocean
And the Amazon, too
EV workers are dying in Indonesia

EV demand seems to be fading
Who woulda thunk it?
While Musk wants a Mexico factory

The hunt for green graphite
You mean it’s currently not green?

THE CHINA SYNDROME

China lays the leather to its bankers
Stop trying to be Western.

China’s tech rainmaker is missing
Just another day at the Communist office.

China not happy with Japan
China wants more free IP.

China is dying out
Their good ole days may be over.

THE WASHING-TONE

New trade agreements are needed
To meet anti-China rules.
US imposes more sanctions
And worries about more Chinese apps
As Apple races to leave China

The new chip support policy
May have unintended consequences

Biden may exercise first veto
On bipartisan anti-ESG bill

MAKING A BETTER YOU

REM sleep is magical
Here’s how to get more

Life is full of tedium.
Here’s how to smile through it all

How to solve a tricky life problem
It’s a tricky process.

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

Where did monkey bars come from?
We knew you’d want to know.

The world’s best beaches
Winter’s the time to dream.

Hawaii is #1
In US life expectancy and SPAM consumption

SONG OF THE WEEK

“Amazing Grace” sung by Elvis.
Its author was a slaveowner-turned-abolitionist
Lyrics are poetry, you know.

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

Why Nikki Haley is running for president
On Honestly with Bari Weiss.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

The 20 best quotes from Succession
Some doozies here!

Hand-feeding hummingbirds
Way cool.

Bird of Prey
Documenting earth’s largest eagle.

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

Yammy fish chowder
Can’t beat it!

The boneless chicken wing
Is not a wing at all

The last mustard maker in Dijon
Who knew there was only one left?

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Are We Headed to War?
February 24, 2023

Ranting About the Climate Change Narrative
February 17, 2024