Top 13 AI Innovators

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

You should write your obituary, and then try to figure out how to live up to it. 
– Warren Buffett

A BIG THINK

We seem to be living in bubble economy times.

In the last 25 years, we’ve had a dot.com bust, a housing bust, a banking bust, an oil & gas bust, a SPAC bust, a meme stock bust, a crypto bust, another tech bust, another banking bust, an office building bust and soon maybe another housing bust. Private equity also looks like it may have gotten out over its skis with ultra-low interest rates. Now, because of FOMO, we have investment gold rushes in green everything and AI.  Invariably, we’re going to get bubbles in these new markets. And after bubbles come…

Did rapid advances in technology drive all these bubbles and busts? Or could it have been massive fiscal and monetary stimulus across this 25-year period? Maybe it’s both.

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

Construction must be booming
Given heavy equipment sales

Restaurant performance index is falling
Have prices risen too much?

The Fed’s loan officer survey
Says credit is getting harder to come by.
Regional banks face years of trouble

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN

Nice chart on inflation components
What happens if energy prices rise?

Inflation cools to 26-month low
Rents may be starting to fall
Producer prices are falling
Initial jobless claims remain high
Fed keeps interest rates steady

Saudi Arabia wants to raise oil prices.
But Russia keeps exporting more oil
And Iran oil sales eclipse 2018’s numbers

THE LABOR VIEW

AI threatens knowledge workers
As companies stand to profit.

Wages are going up
For food delivery workers.
Port workers also getting a raise

Tech companies were OK with WFH.
But not so much anymore

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

ECB raises interest rates
Inflation is still a problem in Europe.

The price of demagoguery
The UK is full of elite bureaucrats.
Post-Brexit UK seems a mess

France bans short-haul flights
Also wants to curb shipping emissions
Who gave France the moral high ground?

GLOBAL

Brazil has a problem.
Western companies are leaving

142 people were executed in May
As Iran tightens its autocratic grip.

North Korea finances their nuclear strategy
With $3B from hacked crypto.

PLAYING WITH FIRE

Nukes are going to Belarus
Russia is ready to place them in July.

Russia about to sell a gusher of oil
Crude exports almost at a record
Are sanctions working at all?

Russia may need more troops.
Where will they get them?
They don’t even have enough workers

THE NEW COLD WAR

Egypt wants to join BRICS
And consider alternative trade currencies.
19 countries have an interest in BRICS
Is a new world order developing?

The Middle East and China had a summit.
And signed a bunch of agreements

While Xi courts Latin America
How will the US and the West counter?

FINANCE

The job market is not looking good
On Wall Street

Higher interest rates
Causing surge in junk loan defaults

Bulls foresee a higher stock market
While the corporate profit squeeze is on

THE REAL ESTATE

NYC offices break 50% occupancy
The highest post-pandemic rate yet.

The SF real estate meltdown continues.
Giant mall owner calls it quits

The recent strength in home prices
Might be over

TECHNOLOGY

A new antibiotic that destroys superbugs
May finally be on the way.

New cyber attacks hit US
It’s the Russians, again.

Weaning ourselves from Chinese chips
Won’t be easy

THE CHAT ON AI

Top 13 AI innovators
People about to change the world.

The economic potential of generative AI
McKinsey dissects the opportunities and evolutions.

AI startups have tons of cash
But not enough places in which to invest.

THE NEXT NORMAL

Understanding UBI
“Free” money is supposedly on the way.

Marriage rates keep declining
‘Til death do us part losing appeal.

What do Americans value most?
Their family time

THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION

Netherlands to close Europe’s largest gas field
Europe must like inflation.

Global oil demand to peak in 2028
Suggests the IEA.
India wants/needs more oil

NY needs its gas “peaker” plants
Renewable energy isn’t enough.

THE EV DREAM

The world’s largest lithium producers
How lithium is extracted

Toyota announces battery game changer
1,500 miles on a 10-minute charge.

China EV maker
May be the category killer

THE CHINA SYNDROME

China’s economy is on shaky ground
Spurring talk of new stimulus
Interest rates get cut
Youth unemployment hits record
China needs more tax revenue
Yet crude imports are soaring

Millionaires are leaving China
Faster than any other country.
Even Chinese companies are leaving

THE WASHING-TONE

Talks with Iran moving forward
Why do we negotiate with autocrats?

US Senators not happy with South Africa
Blowback from their Russia support.

MAKING A BETTER YOU

Make time for books
You’ll be better for it.

Spend time in the wind
It has a healing quality.

Should you dream big?
Or give up on your dreams?

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

An evolutionary history of the brain
In seven minutes.

Man vs. horse for 22.5 miles.
This time, the man wins the race

Are you into birds?
Here’s a cool new app for you

IT’S VACATION TIME

Take your family to Amsterdam
Europe’s most family-friendly city.

36 hours in Split, Croatia
A Mediterranean wonder. 

Best glamping spots in the US
The glamorous outdoors.

SONG OF THE WEEK

River
Leon Bridges has talent!
Lyrics are poetry, ya know.
How ‘bout a Tiny Desk Concert.

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

The Pursuit of Forever
Bari Weiss interviews a longevity expert.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

Mission Impossible featurette
Tom Cruise sets a very high bar.

Pebble Picasso
Wow! Pretty cool.

Spinning wheel animated art
Way cool.

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

How to make fairy butter
What the heck is fairy butter?

Some easy summer recipes
You’ll want to cook more than once.

The vertical farming boom
Has proven to be a bust

THE RANDOMS

So far this year we’ve had a banking crisis and an AI explosion. Ho hum. What’s up for the rest of the year?

According to the WSJ, the Biden administration is trying to work a deal with Iran. Never mind that Iran executed 142 people in May. You think the Biden administration wants Iran’s oil back on the global market to prevent inflation from spiking around the election? Trading politics for Iranian lives. Why is this not a MSM headline?

The EU has been leading the climate change regulatory charge, and now it’s leading the tech regulatory push. Who decided the EU was the moral compass of the world? What makes them smarter than the rest of the world?

A Wall Street Journal article suggests that Goldman Sachs is at war with itself. They’re struggling with the more subdued equity capital markets and M&A world. But has anyone noticed that Goldman has made some terribly wrong predictions about economic influences? Late last summer, their oil price call was $120 a barrel. Now they are backtracking again, to $81. And now the Justice Department has subpoenaed them on SVB.

While we seem to be in an energy transition gold rush, Exxon is developing technology to double output from shale wellsand, in partnership with Toyota, also developing a low-carbon fuel for existing engines that could reduce emissions by 75%. It may not be time to give up on oil and gas just yet.

Does Apple’s VisionPro headset tell us that worthwhile consumer products innovation is dead? Maybe it’s time to head over to military hardware innovation. That seems to be a growing market. 

Enter a subway car today and you’ll see everyone staring at their phones. Does Apple think subway cars will soon be full of people wearing VisionPros? Imagine that.

Is all innovation really that helpful to humanity? Are there any Frankensteins out there that we’ve created? Whoa, buddy!

Fear is the enemy of enlightenment. How’s that for pithy wisdom?

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Why AI Will Save the World
June 9, 2023

The War on Poverty Is Over
June 2, 2023