There Is No Failure

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

The point of modern propaganda isn’t only to misinform or push an agenda.
It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.
– Garry Kasparov

THOUGHTS FROM DOUG

The reason Russia, China and all the autocratic nations will never defeat the USA is because free people will fight to the death to remain free. At least some of us will.

I asked my new assistant, ChatGPT, “How many gasoline or diesel powered devices are in the world?” The answer:

“As an AI language model, I don’t have access to real-time data on the exact number of gasoline or diesel-powered devices in the world. However, it is safe to say that there are billions of gasoline and diesel-powered devices in use worldwide, ranging from cars, trucks, and motorcycles to generators, lawn mowers, and other types of machinery.” 

Then I asked ChatGPT how many homes there are in the world. Its answer was 1.9 billion.

So let’s see, green advocates want a world with billions and billions of batteries powering all of these billions of devices and homes. Tesla warranties its batteries for eight years. So when our world achieves its “green aspirations,” what are we going to do with billions and billions of spent batteries?

The idea of regulating AI seems pretty late to the party. That genie is out of the bottle. Now we get to see what wishes people ask of it. What will be the unintended consequences? (Reference the article below about the consequences of social media.)

Energy is a component of every good produced and service provided. Decades ago, when the price of energy was rising quickly, globalization—the move to cheaper labor cost countries—offset any increases in energy costs. Now, as globalization recedes, there will be fewer offsets to higher energy costs.

Maybe the key to success is to not pay attention to what anyone else is doing and just focus on what you think needs doing to improve the world around you.

Humanity has never had to process the amount of information we’re bombarded with on a daily basis. Has this overwhelm and overload induced a kind of mass psychosis?

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

GDP up, inflation up
Wages up, too

Consumer confidence declined in April
Diesel prices slide in the US
UPS sales volume declines
Not good economic signs.

Manufacturing output is flat.
Per survey data from the Dallas Fed
While the Philly Fed reports decline

A BANKING CRISIS???

Are bank problems tip of the iceberg?
What lurks in shadow banking?

First Republic has a big problem
That’s not easily fixed.

Banks are starting to shiver
Over their real estate portfolios.
The small bank crisis is not over

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN

Climate change will keep inflation high
So says Norwegian oil fund chief.

US import prices keep dropping
Rents are now dropping, too
Is deflation our next worry?

Supply chains have changed forever
This will be inflationary for a while.

THE LABOR VIEW

ChatGPT skills
Top employer wish lists

Gen Z is not easy to work with
So they are at the top of layoff lists.

Return to the office since Covid
Has only hit 50%

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

Europe avoids a recession
Barely…so far.

The Italians are not getting busy.
Births are collapsing 

The greenies kill Germany’s last nuke
So Germany ups its coal use
And earmarks $83B for energy subsidies

GLOBAL

The global grain trade
Is preparing for a decade of turbulence

Want to buy a house in Singapore?
Be ready to pay a 60% stamp tax
Their office rents rise up to 100%

As Latin American goes socialist
Capital flees

PLAYING WITH FIRE

The beginning of WWI
Looks a lot like today

Sudanese fighters capture biolab
Creating a high risk of biological hazard

South Korea has huge artillery stockpile
But will they send it to Ukraine?

THE NEW COLD WAR

US and S. Korea sign 23 MOU agreements
Building stronger ties.

Global military spending hits record
Contractors can’t find enough workers

Pro-Russian hackers
Are after Europe’s air-traffic agency.

THE FINANCE WORLD

SPAC companies low on cash
With no way to replenish it.

Hedge fund rising stars
The next mega moguls?

PE liquidity events are down
As secondary funds grow
Mend and extend keeps them in the game
Fundraising capital is shrinking
The new, humbler PE world

REAL ESTATE

Blackstone may default on RE loan
Yet Blackstone has plenty of liquidity.

Is a commercial real estate crisis coming?
WFH and ecommerce require less space.

Remember one-time darling, WeWork?
Their stock now trades for less than 50 cents

TECHNOLOGY

Social media rewired our brains.
The five things to know

The voice note boom is here
When will keyboards disappear?

Chip industry slowdown
May last a good while.
Is China about to ban US chips?

THE CHAT ON AI

Will Europe put the brakes on ChatGPT?
It’s pushing regulation.
Maybe it should

AI’s rapid rise
Threatens US patent systems

ChatGPT can decipher Fed speak
And maybe predict stock moves.

THE NEXT NORMAL

Sports betting is the new oxycontin
And government is supporting it.

Schools embrace “equitable grading”
Are we destroying a generation? And our future economy?

Young people are returning to faith
Big jump after Covid.

THE WAR ON CARBON

Global companies jump on IRA incentives:
Norwegians to build battery factory
Swedes chase $8B in tax credits
VW may invest $7B+ to make EVs
Italian company to build 10K EV chargers
Europeans want to make green gas in TX
LG to build $5B battery plant in Arizona
South Koreans to build solar cell factory

Global crude demand to set new record
China refinery output sets record
So much for destroying the industry.

THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION

The green energy transition
Might destroy millions of jobs

Reducing cement’s carbon footprint.
Can it be done with microbes?

The cheap natural gas era.
Is it about to end?

THE EV DREAM

EVs to be 20% of 2023 new cars sales
That’s globally.
Yet Americans are not sold on EVs

Tesla drops prices again
It’s now below the average new car price.
Which most people can’t even afford
Another tiny car maker is rising

THE CHINA SYNDROME

China has a space strategy.
Hijack adversary satellites

China cozies up to Cuba
Borrowing from Russia’s playbook.

Chinese diplomat says FSU countries are not sovereign
And digs himself right into a hole.
China backtracks on his statements
Was it a trial balloon?

THE WASHING-TONE

House passes debt ceiling plan
What concessions will they get?

Biden creates a new bureaucracy
The Office of Environmental Justice.

Will the IRA bill
Create a new trade war?
EU carbon tax starts the trade war

MAKING A BETTER YOU

They’re the happiest people in America.

Why are they so happy?

Are you tying your shoelaces wrong?

What, huh, I don’t know.

Fitness tips from this dude

Who runs a marathon every day.

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

The country’s best state parks
Now that’s what I’m talking about.

What is our body made of?
Elements created by ancient stars

Take this space elevator
To see what’s up there.

SONG OF THE WEEK

Beethoven’s “Ode to Joy”
Performed by a flash mob.

A bonus this week…

In DC, South Korea’s president sings 
“American Pie”

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

Capitalism, PE and the Seven Deadly Sins
Scott Galloway and Feakonomics’ Stephen Dubner.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

There is no failure in sports
Giannis Antetokounmpo is one wise dude!

Fred…Again
Pretty cool Tiny Desk Concert.

Ronald Reagan’s best jokes
A president who can tell a joke.

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

The best way to eat meat
May be with your bare hands

Linguine with clams
One of my all-time favorites.

You know what makes a great pasta sauce?
Cottage cheese…yep, cottage cheese

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

America’s Astonishing Economic Record
April 21, 2023

Deflation and Recession Are Nigh
April 14, 2023