The War on Poverty Is Over
June 2, 2023
Leyendecker Executive Search
Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View
When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace.
– Jimi Hendrix
A WEEKLY BIG THINK
For the rest of this decade, we may be dealing with the unintended consequences of “progress.” Maybe we need to get real about the term “progress.”
It’s starting to creep out that large solar farms are destroying their environments. Progress?
And recycling plastics is showing some uncertain, possibly even severe consequences. Progress?
Our China trade deal allows us to import products made by “forced labor.” I guess it’s not politically correct anymore to call it “slave labor” (or, rather, is it just too inconvenient?). Progress?
Our current economic and social policies have created a world of debt and are destroying birth rates around the world. Progress?
AI is already breaking reality. Check out this profile photos story. Progress?
Social media has allowed old friends to find each other, and new friends to be made. But it’s also creating division, fueling hate, spreading lies, and feeding an already-growing mental health problem in our young. Progress?
There’s a term used in healthcare for unintended consequences of medicine or treatment: Iatrogenesis. On a broader level, the term suggests that intervention in what we think is a problem can often create worse outcomes.
Now about the trillions of dollars we are going to spend to “fix” climate change: What are the unintended consequences we have yet to consider from this “progress”?
THE ECONOMIC VIEW
What recession?
The job market remains strong
Manufacturing and housing are up
But household debt passes $17T
2022 productivity numbers by state
Too many are in decline.
Luxury brands are stumbling
And fizzling out in China
Is this the end of the luxury economic era?
THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN
US meat prices are high.
Here’s why
Commodity prices are collapsing
Is a global slowdown already here?
Producer prices keep coming down
Does the Fed care?
Get ready for deflation
Welcome to the roller-coaster world.
THE LABOR VIEW
Almost 4,000 job cuts in May—because of AI
Here comes a tsunami.
But Wall Street’s got AI jobs
April job openings rise
Reversing three months of decline.
The office worker must become the robot
Sounds…stimulating.
A robot can reduce solar installation time
And of course eliminate human jobs.
MEANWHILE IN EUROPE
Europe’s economy on the rocks
With Germany stumbling.
It’s been in recession for 6 months
EU inflation has fallen fast
But it’s still at 6%+.
EU’s green reporting rules
Are “impossible,” say businesses
GLOBAL
India’s GDP grows 6.1%
As military exports rise rapidly
Egypt has a dollar problem
They can’t pay their grain import bills.
NZ sheep-to-people ratio at record low
We knew you’d want to know.
PLAYING WITH FIRE
Is another war in Europe about to start?
There’s a problem in the Balkans.
Drones hit Moscow apartments
And then Russian refineries
The war escalates.
Is Russian public opinion souring
As the death counts rise?
THE NEW COLD WAR
Are the US and China on a collision course?
That certainly wouldn’t be good for anyone.
US manufacturers are in a tight spot
Saudi Arabia considers China’s “Brics bank”
China tries to unseat the dollar.
Russia courts Africa
Can they remain neutral on Ukraine?
FINANCE
Wall Street to retool with AI
Lots of changes are coming.
SPACs delivered big-time returns
For company insiders
Private capital fundraising collapses
Will this year mark a bottom?
As PE valuations come under question
We need more activist investors
Lots of complacency in today’s companies.
REAL ESTATE
Downtown LA office market
Is now at a vacancy record
Housing prices set a new high
While affordability continues to fall
Office markets may be fragile
While neighborhoods boom
TECHNOLOGY
Don’t forget about medtech.
Doctors perform brain surgery on a fetus
And a new multi-cancer blood test shows promise
Are semiconductor materials toxic?
Stop oil & gas? Why not semiconductors?
Is a sustainable electronics industry possible?
Taiwan tech company to invest in Mexico
Time to go long on Mexico?
THE CHAT ON AI
Jobs that AI won’t replace…yet
Tell your kids about these.
AI poses “risk of extinction”
Suggest numerous industry leaders.
As it moves “faster than real life”
What to make of the boys “who cry extinction”
Who, you know, includes those developing AI.
It’s a brand new computing era
Says Nvidia’s CEO.
THE NEXT NORMAL
The war on poverty is over
And rich people won.
El Niño could cost us trillions
Is this normal climate change?
If cellular networks collapse
You want to be like these guys
THE WAR ON CARBON
Exxon and Chevron shareholders pull back
On climate policy proposals
Big insurers quit net-zero initiative
Including Lloyd’s of London.
JPM bets big on carbon removal
Payback for their sweet First Republic deal?
THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION
A revolutionary fusion technology
Is getting funded in Germany.
Can coal mines become storage “batteries”
That’s some creative thinking.
Nigeria opens Africa’s largest refinery
Oil is still important to Africans.
THE EV DREAM
CA needs thousands more EV chargers
If it’s going to meet its 2035 goals.
EV owners’ taxes are going up
‘Cause they don’t pay gasoline taxes.
EVs may cost more to insure
When do insurance costs ever go down?
THE CHINA SYNDROME
China recovery runs out of steam
Are shifting global trade patterns at fault?
Xi wants to upgrade China’s security
China’s youth unemployment problem
Has profound near- and long-term economic effects.
China’s $23T local debt mess
Will probably take many years to fix.
THE WASHING-TONE
The debt deal is a done deal
Is it a ho-hum mish mash?
Or is it a powerful first step in the right direction?
Since the debt deal passed the Senate
Manchin will get his pipeline deal
Now he’s focused on grid reliability
Biden developing national AI strategy
Isn’t the genie already out of that bottle?
MAKING A BETTER YOU
How to handle rejection
Toughen yourself up!
Want AI to improve your life?
Here are some golden prompts for ChatGPT
Nothing succeeds like failure
It certainly is the key to learning.
HOW ABOUT A BREAK
Your voice is like a fingerprint
How your anatomy creates your unique voice.
The four types of memory
And how they work.
An 11-year-old Mexican girl
Has a higher IQ than Hawking or Einstein.
IT’S VACATION TIME
6 unknown, yet cool national parks
Avoid the crowds, maybe.
The coolest new US hotels
In case you’re still making plans.
Sleeper train routes in Europe
Save on the cost of a hotel room.
SONG OF THE WEEK
“All Along the Watchtower”
By Jimi Hendrix.
Lyrics are poetry, you know.
CASTING AROUND THE PODS
Dr. Gina Poe: The Science of Better Sleep
Shane Parrish gets the scoop on sleep.
VIDEOS OF THE WEEK
The annual cheese rolling race
Is chaotic fun!
The Covenant trailer.
Guy Ritchie, master filmmaker.
The SISU trailer.
If you like action, oh boy!
FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN
Summer is salad season.
15 blow-your-mind recipes
The best way to cook hot dogs
Essential summer BBQ know-how.
How to make savory pancakes
WTF, savory pancakes?
THE RANDOMS
The lesson from the 1970s bout with inflation was that you should not cut rates too soon. You think the Fed has this lesson in mind?
I recently met a former military intelligence officer. We had a very good chat. He told me that 22 veterans die by suicide each day. WTF? So I did some research. I found 22aday.org. Then I found recent research suggesting it is 17 a day, still twice the rate of non-veterans. It blows me away that 17 of our veterans commit suicide every single day. Seen any news story about this? Do we care? Do you care?
The just-passed debt deal looks to cap federal spending for the next few years. But if we stumble into recession, where will we get our Keynesian stimulus?
Whenever I see articles about what to buy for men or women who “have everything,” it makes me wonder: What comes after this era of we have everything?
Is there that much difference between the old-world monarchies and the new-world autocracies? Power was once passed down by lineage, and it is now passed down by political families.
Russia seems to be walking the old-monarchy path: Growing power and economy by conquering lands and taking control of their natural resources.
Exactly how is AI going to advance humanity when its primary goal seems to be to eliminate jobs? Some say it’s going to create even better jobs. But with college enrollment for 18-24 year olds at 38%, do you think our workforce has the intelligence, skill, and work ethic to outpace AI?
If AI is going to be so omnipotent, how long before someone can use it to get all our passwords and pilfer our bank and investment accounts?
We may want to consider that programs like ChatGPT are just entering their kindergarten year of knowledge and learning.
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
Philosophy Majors Make Big Bucks
May 27, 2023
Can the US Become the Next China?
May 12, 2023
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