The Future of Lazy

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

The sky calls us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars.
– Carl Sagan

A BIG THINK

The Future of Lazy

Bernie Sanders has proposed a 32-hour work week. Jamie Dimon suggests AI could cut the work week down to 3.5 days. Sam Altman says the nature of work itself could change dramatically.

So it sounds like we will spend less time commuting in traffic, solving problems (AI will solve them), and having to play office politics. Woohoo for us! Bring it on, tech bros! 

But let’s not forget an old saying…

An idle mind is the devil’s workshop.

From my point of view, old sayings get old because they stand the test of time.

So what are the unintended consequences of people working less? How will we fill our time, such that our minds don’t fall prey to the “devil’s work”?

Humans use time in three ways—for productive activity, leisure and life maintenance.

Productive activity encompasses work and education. Leisure, of course, is when we go on vacation or engage in a hobby. Life maintenance is when we take care of ourselves and our stuff.

Parenting responsibilities could be considered productive activity (creating future productive assets), as well as life maintenance (keeping children clean, fed and engaged). But as we know, fewer people in the world are interested in having children.

Time spent maintaining our health and stuff is obviously a necessity of life. But most of us dislike doing life maintenance. Who really wants to go to the doctor, mow the lawn or clean the garage more often? End of the day, aren’t we always trying to find ways to reduce the amount of time we spend on life maintenance? After all, life maintenance doesn’t make us money, nor is it any fun.

More vacation time sounds great, but it will cost us more money. Spending more time on hobbies could also be great, but here again this could necessitate more pay to afford more hobby time.

When you boil down the time we spend, it is the wages we earn from productive activity that affords us our leisure and life maintenance. So if AI is going to reduce the amount of time we spend on productive activity, then we can’t afford it to come with lower wages. Actually, we likely need to be paid higher wages in order to afford our expanded leisure and life maintenance time.

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

US home sales jump
Median sales price does, too.

The American dream is fading
For people at the economic bottom.

Low natural gas prices.
Have been an economic tailwind

Another soft landing non-believer
He called the 2008 housing crisis.

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN

Fed sees 3 rate cuts this year
What if higher energy prices leak into CPI?
Switzerland cuts its interest rate
Mexico does, too

Small businesses worry about inflation
Is it set to rise again?

Shrinkflation 101.
What gets missed in inflation data

THE LABOR VIEW

Where’s the job growth?
Everyone needs a plumber
And an electrician
There’s also a big shortage of CPAs
Yet Gen Z says “no thanks”
They’d rather be influencers

Remote work is here to stay
But not for everyone, of course.
Dell throws down the gauntlet
Remote workers ineligible for promotion.

The tech job market’s new reality.
Low wage and job prospects without AI skills

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

The German manufacturing slump grows
And this is Europe’s strongest economy.

Europe has a €56B hole
To get caught up on defense spending.

Europe faces a competitiveness crisis
Falling further behind the US and China.

THE GLOBAL GAME

World Happiness Report
Why Finland is so happy
US falls from the top 20

Once ruled by France
These African countries are in shambles

BOJ ends negative rates era
Is Japan the new global growth engine?

THE UKRAINE FIRE

Russia pounds Ukraine’s infrastructure.
Over one million without electricity

Is France sending soldiers to Ukraine?
A senior Ukraine official thinks so.

Russians attacking Russians
Not everyone’s on Putin’s team.

“Welcome to hell.”
Russia is guilty of many war crimes

THE GAZA FIRE

Israel kills a top Hamas commander
But war will continue.

The Red Sea becomes a war zone
Houthis won’t target Chinese and Russian ships.

Hostage talks are back on.
Israel isn’t optimistic

Is Gaza in a starvation crisis?
If so, who will help them and how?

THE SLIPPERY SLOPE

US nuclear missiles are 50 years old.
It will cost $130B to replace them

Japan, UK and Italy to build fighter jet
Japan’s first JV outside of US deals.

NATO building its largest military base
In Romania near the Black Sea.

FINANCE

Flawed valuations.
Is private credit full of them?
Private equity has a cash problem
They need more liquidity events soon.

Gold hits a new high.
Has that bull market just started?

BlackRock condemns Texas divestment
Woke support is in retreat.

Calpers goes big on private market investments
Grabbing the knife while it’s still falling?

REAL ESTATE

The office fire sale rush has barely begun
But a key threshold has been hit

Austin was once the hottest housing market.
Now it’s the fasting receding
People are moving to other urban areas
Houston is most affordable major US city

Realtor board capitulates with new program
Are they capitulating or misdirecting?
Here’s what’s changing

TECHNOLOGY

India banned TikTok in 2020
The public quickly adapted.

US government sues Apple.
Alleging they’ve got a phone monopoly
Stock quickly loses $113B in value

Intel just got billions in government subsidy
Who knew 80% of chips are made in Asia?

THE CHAT ON AI

$9-an-hour AI nurses are here
Imagine a few years from now.

SXSW played an AI marketing video.
And the audience booed!!!

Google’s woke AI wasn’t a mistake.
Woke defines Google’s culture
Now Apple wants to use Google Gemini
And Microsoft hires former Google AI leader
AI may be very woke. Why?

OUR FRIEND, FAILURE

Sony stops VR production
They just aren’t selling.

Cuba has a food and electricity shortage
Communism works great, eh?

Female athletes sue the NCAA
Trans women should not be competing!

THE NEXT NORMAL

Do you still have a landline?
What’s a landline? Maybe you need one.

No strings attached to free government cash
UBI has already started.

Someone grew a ping-pong-ball-sized blueberry
How long until these are in stores?
Here comes designer produce!
$89 strawberries and $120 melons, anyone?

THE WAR ON CARBON

Big Canadian banks are backtracking.
Sustainable finance pledges won’t curtail emissions
While Barclays will halt oil & gas financing
Banks are not the climate police, says UBS chief

EPA issues new methane rules
Baker Hughes has flare emissions breakthrough

Climate protesters.
The dangerous know-nothings of our time

THE ENERGY TRANSITION

How can we store renewable energy?
Maybe in balloons

Energy transition is on the road to nowhere
Suggests Aramco’s CEO.

US power use will keep setting records
World crude demand also to keep growing
Technology is an ever greater energy hog.

THE EV DREAM

Hertz’s CEO gets fired.
His EV initiative was a disaster

EVs are losing their luster.
As hybrid sales surge

How about a $10,000 EV?
China’s got them, Western automakers don’t

THE CHINA SYNDROME

A new Hong Kong law
Renders it no longer a finance hub.
Hong Kong’s vibrancy is dying
Death by a thousand cuts.

China’s new problem.
They don’t have enough jobs
Young Chinese are turning to Tinder
As a job hunting tool.

Beijing to support one failing real estate developer
The government is a partial owner.
While it accuses another developer of fraud
The government is not an owner.
China probing PwC’s Evergrande audits

THE WASHING-TONE

Congress is becoming less productive.
Maybe this is why

Biden cancels $6B student debt
Public service workers are cheering today.

SCOTUS says Texas immigration law is good
Mexican diplomat doesn’t like it
Appeals court puts it on temporary hold

THE ELECTION DISTRACTION

Trump can’t post $464MM bond
Will he campaign from jail?

Homeowners are red, renters are blue
Interesting take on voter demographics.

Latinos keep tilting toward Trump
They don’t like illegal immigration.
Gallup surveys voter issues
Should we have built Trump’s wall?

MAKING A BETTER YOU

What is a sound bath?
It makes you feel better, supposedly.

8 techniques to evaluate character
Is wealth part of the equation?

Five teachings from the Dalai Lama.
Tibetan Buddhist wisdom you can use

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

Village life 3,000 years ago
Archeologists have cool jobs!

The karaoke machine inventor has died
Should a global holiday be made in his name?

Think you’re a good photographer?
Here’s your chance to get famous

MUSIC FROM THE WORLD

“Baila Me”
The Gypsy Kings
Did you know they started in France?

A GOLDEN OLDIE

“Take Me Home, Country Roads”
Lovely guy, that John Denver.
Lyrics can be poetry, ya know.

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

The fall of ancient Egypt
From the Fall of Civilizations podcast.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

The Last Repair Shop
2024 Academy Awards short documentary winner.

Arthur the King trailer.
Mark Wahlberg is Mr. Prolific.

The only way to reach the stars.
Will take mind-bending speed

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

The history of pancakes

The best fluffy pancakes
Buttermilk pancakes
Banana pancakes
Blueberry pancakes
Lemon ricotta pancakes
Sweet potato pancakes
Cottage cheese pancakes
Crème brûlée pancakes
Vegan pancakes
Dutch babies
Fluffy Japanese soufflé pancakes

THE RANDOMS

One quick thought: The stock market is not the economy.

Has the rise of gambling culture influenced stock market investing?

Are today’s climate protesters the equivalent of yesteryear’s witch hunters? Did you know the witch hunts lasted over 300 years? 

A WSJ article suggests Europe may have to cut social spending in order to afford greater defense spending. Maybe they just need to ease up on climate spending?

Want to spot something or someone’s biggest weakness? Start with identifying that thing or person’s greatest strength. If our greatest strength as a country is free speech, then wouldn’t our enemies naturally want to exploit it?

You think Russia, China, Iran and any others are using our free speech against us to create discord and chaos in the US? Russia is working hard on its disinformation campaigns across Europe.

In December 2023, the price of crude oil bottomed out at around $69. Now it’s about $82. That’s an almost 19% increase in the cost of oil in a pretty short period of time. When will that price increase trickle its way into CPI? What will it mean for future inflation reports? Gasoline prices just passed $3.50 a gallon.

The AI we know is not yet two years old, but it’s already capable of creating professional sounding music.

This idea may be totally implausible, but why doesn’t Israel recruit anti-Hamas Palestinians to fight against Hamas? The obvious fear is that they’d risk another Hamas infiltration. But maybe there’s a way to isolate that risk.

Was fishing with a guide not long ago. He said something pretty profound: “They’re always over there sometimes.” No, his name was not Yogi Berra.

If a person or city is trying to sell how cool it is, doesn’t that sort of make them uncool?

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Economic Homeostasis
March 15, 2024

The Conundrum of Government
March 8, 2024