The Everything Crisis

March 13, 2026

Doug Leyendecker

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

You can have peace. Or you can have freedom. Don’t ever count on having both at once.
– Robert A. Heinlein

FAVORITE READS OF THE WEEK

AI hurtles ahead
Claude schools Howard Marx.

Future AI will be proactive, not reactive
How will that affect employment?

Larry Ellison reveals the AI elephant in the room
Private data is where the real value exists.

THINKING OUT LOUD

The Everything Crisis
It’s everywhere

The film Everything Everywhere All At Once won the Academy Award for Best Picture in 2022. Many people who saw it struggled to find a cohesive narrative. It was a chaotic mash-up of crazy cinéma vérité. It wasn’t until the film’s ending that some, but not all, viewers grasped the film’s message: In a chaotic, meaningless, and overwhelming universe, kindness, love, and human connection are the only things that matter.

At the moment, we seem to be living in what can only be described as an “everything crisis.” Everywhere we look, there is another conflict, another political battle, another economic shock, another moral panic. The headlines rarely pause long enough for us to catch our breath. In a world saturated with information and media-fueled outrage, the constant churn of crises is surely creating collective fatigue.

Consider the geopolitical landscape. The war involving Iran has escalated tensions across the Middle East and is now disrupting global energy markets. The possibility of a prolonged war has economists warning of a cascade of uncomfortable consequences, particularly for regions like Europe and Asia who depend on Middle East oil and LNG.

Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine grinds on. What was initially expected as a short-term takeover campaign by Russia has become a long-term geopolitical standoff between Russia and the West, with no obvious resolution in sight.

In the Western Hemisphere, the dramatic US operation that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro shocked the international community and sent ripple effects across Latin America and the globe. Whether viewed as bold leadership or destabilizing intervention, it has further contributed to growing geopolitical drama.

Europe, for its part, is struggling under the weight of economic stagnation, social unrest, and energy uncertainty. The recent policy effort to “manage speech” has added to the political polarization. Add the pressure of global conflicts and energy shocks, and Europe seems to be losing relevance and influence.

In the United States, political conflict has become nearly as intense as global geopolitical conflict. Donald Trump’s return to the presidency has unleashed a new wave of policy battles and partisan warfare. What cannot be denied is that nearly every Trump initiative sparks fierce resistance.

Beyond politics, society has been caught in its own ideological turbulence. An effort to carve up the country into different political constituencies has weakened our aspirational one-for-all-and-all-for-one culture. As rights of the individual became more important than the greater good, the greater good has suffered.

America’s cities now seem so full of anger and economic challenge that many are depopulating. Centered in those cities also lies the affordability crisis, where local government and some Washington policies have increasingly made urban life unaffordable to many.

At the same time, environmental policy has collided with economic reality. The result has been a dramatic increase in living costs as well as cost increases in goods production, which exacerbated the hollowing out of our manufacturing industries. Yet the climate change apocalypse narratives continue.

The 40-year period of ever more domestic government stimulus, ever lower interest rates, ever cheaper labor, and ever more productive global supply chains has ended. A go-along-to-get-along geopolitical world has now turned into a concentrated effort focused on sovereign and domestic political sustainability.

Hovering over all of this is a media that thrives on fear and outrage. Traditional news outlets are facing intense competition from social media, independent commentators, and a growing number of alternative platforms. To survive, legacy news outlets have turned to pushing stories more dramatically than ever before. Sensational headlines, worst-case predictions, and emotionally charged narratives often dominate the news cycle.

No wonder the world feels overwhelming. War in one region threatens economic shock in another. Domestic and global political battles echo ideological battles magnified by social media. Every issue seems to connect with every other issue until it all blurs into one enormous blob of instability.

This is the paradox of the modern information age. Humanity may be more prosperous and technologically advanced than ever before, yet the constant visibility of conflict makes the world feel perpetually on the brink.

History reminds us that civilizations often feel most chaotic when they are in the midst of transformation. The current era certainly seems like one of those moments.

Maybe we would be wise to bear in mind the message of that seemingly out-of-control, crazy film, Everything Everywhere All At Once. Remember, in a chaotic, meaningless, and overwhelming universe, kindness, love, and human connection are the only things that matter.

THE RANDOMS

Could the Iran war be the event that unravels a lot of private equity and private credit investments?

If you want to revolt against our world’s over-consumption of media and stuff, then consider practicing more acts of kindness.

What does it tell us that tech companies like Dell, Block, and Oracle are shrinking their employment because of AI? Tech companies lead in embracing AI, so what happens when more “regular” companies embrace AI?

Is the pitch that AI is going to solve all our problems and lead to a utopian world where we work less and enjoy even more comfortable lives a giant red flag?

Are stress fractures in the private credit market climbing the wall of worry, or are they the canary in the coal mine?

The thing about Hollywood’s habit of happy endings is that the end of life is rarely a happy experience. But maybe those happy endings help us strive for a happier life today.

What was it like a few generations ago when most people actually had a weekend to chill?

ECONOMIC NEWS

Economy

Consumer debt is growing stress
Iran war could cause food inflation
Jobless claims tick down
Mississippi has turned it around big time
Inflation holds steady, so far

Labor

AI isn’t lightening work loads
BlackRock to invest in trade schools
Remote workers earn more
White-collar jobs were not built to last

The Lone Star

Texas to get big, new oil refinery
Houston’s becoming a solar juggernaut
Exxon Mobil to move HQ to Texas

BUSINESS

Finance

The private credit run on the bank
JPM cuts private credit exposure
Bitcoin is no gold
But stablecoins might be useful
Sellers are manipulating EBITDA

Real Estate