Rates, Higher for Longer?

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

History ages like milk. 
– A new acquaintance

A WEEKLY BIG THINK

Early this week, I had the pleasure of sitting down with a recent Gen Z college graduate. An old acquaintance thought I might be able to help her sort through her career thoughts and path. Anyone who reads this newsletter probably knows my intellectual curiosity runs broad and deep. The chance to chat with a Gen Z-er in search of her path was too attractive to pass up.  

We had a two-hour chat about all manner of things—career, work, jobs, government, politics, economy and society. It was during our conversation that she spoke the wise words that opened this TLV: 

“History ages like milk.”

Given all our recent debates over slavery, American theft of indigenous lands, the destruction of our environment for the sake of economic progress and more, we seem to be in a pretty reflective mood, to say the least. Many believe we’re past time to, somehow, right all the wrongs we see way back there in history. But at the end of the day, we’re not going to change history. It is what it is. And as my new acquaintance astutely points out, most history doesn’t age well. 

Certainly there’s value in learning from the past and working to be better. But is it wise to create policies with the fanciful wish of correcting yesterday’s wrongs when we have very real problems in need of attention today? Maybe we should focus on being less reactionary and more thoughtful when it comes to how we perceive and confront the past. 

When we spend too much time on the shoulda, woulda, coulda, we take time and energy away from what we’re gonna do tomorrow. Might tomorrow matter more than the distant past? 

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

ADP says job creation is booming
The BLS reports more subdued growth
Mixed signals for the Fed.

Will rates be higher for longer?
Are investors in denial?

US manufacturing is in recession
While the consumer splurges on services

Foreign investment in the US continues
Where are other lands of opportunity?

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN

Consumers think inflation will subside
How about when energy costs next rise?

Chocolate is not immune
From global inflation.

Car repairs are getting more expensive
And EVs are NOT going to lower these costs.

THE LABOR VIEW

NYC regulates AI hiring software
Bias is not allowed.

Many CFOs are struggling to keep up.
Accenture has some helpful suggestions

Remote work is sticky
For many types of jobs
It’s been on the rise since the 1960s

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

France’s Macron wants the world stage.
But he’s got problems at home
The rioters’ disadvantages are many
Are riots a signal of too much human progress?

Europe’s gas consumption plummets
Their economy is in a recession
Although, German factory orders have risen

French red wine sales

Are down 50% from 1990

GLOBAL

Where confidence in police is high
The US ranks 41st in the world.

As the world pivots away from China
Vietnam is right place, right time

Australia becomes the first country
To let doctors prescribe hallucinogens
States set stage for possible US use

PLAYING WITH FIRE

Russia’s Ukraine forces
Have been cut by half

Ukraine strikes big behind Russian lines
How much longer can Russia endure failure?

The Ukraine situation
Shows how technology is changing war
Moscow has a drone attack
Ukraine to get cluster munitions

THE NEW COLD WAR

Autocrats are sustainable
Because other autocrats help them

China wants more cooperation
With Russia’s military

Ethiopia wants to join BRICS
The new non-Western alliance.

FINANCE

The stock market’s resilience
Is led by tech and consumer goods

PE firms are struggling for exits
It’s time to get creative.

Recent IPOs are not enough
To jumpstart Wall Street.
But PE investors need/want exits

REAL ESTATE

The best commercial real estate market
Is around college campuses

Real estate commissions under attack
It’s not the first time.

Midwestern cities face “doom loop”
WFH is crushing downtowns.

THE CHIP BOOM

India has its own semiconductor plans
Will we end up with a semiconductor glut?

Japan bulks up chip subsidies
To compete in the coming chip war.

Computer chips keep getting smaller.
But we may be at the end of that era

TECHNOLOGY

Apple’s new Vision Pro
Looks like a dud

VCs are piling in
To defense technology startups

The time we spend connected
Might be greater than time not connected.

THE CHAT ON AI

AI will change the way we do science
Former Google CEO tells us how.

Generative AI may change everything.
But what’s left after the hype has passed?

AI is coming for mathematics
Do nerds stand to lose the most?

THE NEXT NORMAL

A new paganism
Is it time to get closer to nature?

10% of Americans have no savings
Almost 90% have less than $50K.

America’s trust in government
Keeps falling and falling
People are looking for a way out

THE WAR ON CARBON

US utilities defend gas stoves
They account for less than 1% of gas usage.

Iran floods market with cheap oil
Saudi production takes the hit.

Flying green
Is going to cost everyone more

THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION

Sweden dumps renewable energy goals
In favor of building nuclear power.

Science accident turns humid air
Into renewable power

Investment in hydrogen is booming.
But the results need to be better

THE EV DREAM

China has the lithium lead in Africa
Car makers are desperate for lithium
Europe has a lithium shortage
China also controls a big nickel supply

Toyota makes a battery breakthrough
Half the cost, half the size, by 2027.

EV sales keep booming
How long before a spent battery problem?
Is trouble coming for gas car makers?

THE CHINA SYNDROME

Is China the next Japan?
Headed for its own lost decades?
Gen Z graduate unemployment is at 20%
Suicide rates of the young are rising

China restricts exports
Of minerals for high-performance chips
While US wants to curb China’s cloud access

Can China charm the US
Back into its web?
Can Yellen charm China?

THE WASHING-TONE

Federal judge tells Biden team
To lay off the social media censorship

A majority of Americans
Believes Hunter Biden is getting special treatment

MAKING A BETTER YOU

How to live happier.
11 popular approaches

Generating new ideas
How to get the mind in motion.

Believing in free will
Helps create a better future.

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

The Mediterranean was once empty.
What filled it with water?

Are we living in a quantum sandwich?
Mind blowing stuff here.

The biggest cosmic explosion ever
Is currently happening.

IT’S VACATION TIME

Summer camp for grown ups
I’m in!

If you don’t want a fishing addiction
Then don’t try this

India wants more tourists
But it’s not an easy destination.

SONG OF THE WEEK

“Fire for You”
The Cannons.
Lyrics are poetry, ya know.

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

The 1% of life that makes everything worth it
Is intermittent bliss what keeps us going?

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

The 4th of July drone show
That set a Guinness World Record.

Past Lives trailer
Summer 2023’s Love Story.

An homage to the American hot dog.
Let’s honor Joey Chestnut

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

150 of the world’s most iconic restaurants
And each one’s signature dish. YUM YUM!

Texas BBQ is leading the way
A global melting pot of recipes and cooks.
The 20 best new Texas BBQ chefs
Texas high school state BBQ championship

Is a very real thing.
The best bourbons for BBQ

THE RANDOMS

During the span of about 300 years (1450 to 1750), it was commonly believed that some people were witches. They were chased down and put to death. An estimated 35,000 to 50,000 people were executed. Yep. No kidding.

In ancient times, there was a legendary creature called the Bonnacon. The Bonnacon protected itself by expelling large amounts of caustic feces. People believed this. Yep. No kidding again.

For a couple of thousand years, bloodletting was a widely accepted medical procedure. Bloodletting for a couple thousand years? Accepted medicine? Yep. No kidding, one more time.

What might people today believe that will eventually go the way of bloodletting or the Bonnacon? Any suggestions on today’s stinkin’ thinkin’?

Virtual reality’s real future value could be treatment for people’s emotional challenges.

Have you stumbled up on the rapidly growing political force, Moms for Liberty? Could they shape up to be the 2024 election’s dominant voter force?

No one wins an election by pitching “we all have to tighten our belts and sacrifice.” This may be the great weakness of democracy.

There seem to be two ways to make money when investing. Buy low and sell high. Or buy high and sell higher. Are we in either of these two opportunity zones today?

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Happy 4th of July!
June 30, 2023

Charity Has Declined Measurably
June 23, 2023