Is Leadership Overrated?

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

Most of the trouble in the world is caused by people trying to be important.
– T.S. Eliot

A BIG THINK

A New Age of Uncertainty

It wasn’t too many years ago when globalization dominated geopolitics. Rich countries got richer. Third-world countries gained wealth. Despite the fact that their citizens benefited from advanced technologies, innovations, and luxuries, many newly-rich countries remained under totalitarian rule. No less, outside a few incidents, 9/11 being the most prominent, countries mostly went along to get along. Well, really, they went along to get rich. Who doesn’t want to be rich?

Then Covid came along. China carelessly unleashed a rogue virus on the world. It shut down the global economy. The ever-growing, well-oiled machine of globalization came to a screeching halt, as country after country and company after company had to shut down, or at least significantly curtail their operations.

Since Covid, global trust has deteriorated. And with the world distracted by Covid, certain newly-rich and newly-emboldened totalitarian countries saw their opening.

Can we trust China anymore after their Covid catastrophe? Was it even a mistake, or was it the first volley that opened up broader conflict between China and the West? Remember that spy balloon that drifted over the US?

The Chinese are relatively new to the global geopolitical game, so maybe they’re making rookie mistakes. But their bullying in the South China Sea and efforts to expand influence across the globe naturally requires a response from the West.

The West certainly can’t trust Russia anymore. Russia’s Ukraine invasion comes across like a World War II flashback. Bombs, missiles, artillery barrages and moving troops into a foreign country are so last century. It’s like Russia hasn’t gotten the message that the age of war was supposed to be over.

And what of Iran and its Middle East meddling? The Iranians don’t just hate the Jews and Israel, they seem to think the old Persia—and all its economic, military and political power—needs to be resurrected. Iran’s leadership seems to think everyone lives beneath their feet.

The Russians want to restore their empire. The Chinese want to restore their empire. The Persians want to restore their empire. What’s going on here? Why are these people not satisfied with their Apple watches, Instagram postings and Walt Disney movies?

Geopolitical insecurity seems to have replaced globalization’s ability to create greater security. Countries are separating into different factions, different teams. The Western democracies are aligning, while the autocrats align.

Our decades-long era of global collaboration and cooperation now seems to be over. The prosperity globalization created now seems to have emboldened the autocrats. Now they want more.

It’s not like this is a new experience for civilization. Rather it is something civilization has experienced over and over and over again. It’s like humans can’t really handle prosperity. For some reason, too much prosperity seems to motivate us to destroy it.

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

Is a cashless society a system run amok?
Let’s not go there, please.

The easy money era is over
We just have to survive the transition.

The ticking time bomb.
The cost of serving government debt

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN

Maersk halts Red Sea shipping
Shipping costs seem set to rise.

Gasoline prices below $3
Everyone feels the cost of fuel.

Apartment rents are coming down
Inflation may almost be over, for now.

THE LABOR VIEW

2024 job trends
The company-labor relationship evolves.

Is leadership overrated?
One person does not create culture.

The truth about performance reviews
Do they do more harm than good?

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

German inflation is rising again
Oopsie doopsie.

The waning power of Emmanuel Macron
As voters turn against liberal bureaucracy.

Turkey raises minimum wage 49%
Well, inflation is 63%

THE GLOBAL GAME

India wants to be the next China.
But something is holding it back

The global minimum tax starts now.
Countries hope to raise $220B

The world is on the move
Immigrants flood Western economies.

THE UKRAINE FIRE

Ukraine strikes Russian border city
Russia vows revenge of course.

Russian women want their men home
Half of Russians want the war to end

Putin says he wants peace.
But on his terms, of course
As he pours on the gas

THE GAZA FIRE

Israel kills senior Hamas official in Beirut
They’re committed to rooting out Hamas.
Who detonated the big bomb in Iran?

The Red Sea battle begins
The US destroys Houthi vessels.
Iran sends warship to the Red Sea

As the death toll rises
Netanyahu pledges to carry on the fight
Southern Gaza battle could take months

THE NEW COLD WAR

The BRICS alliance adds 5 members
Can dictators find agreement?

Happy New Year, says Xi
2024 to be North Korea friendship year
And a deepening friendship with Putin

Russia and Iran ditch US dollar
No more trading in dollars for them.
Russian gas exports to China hit record

FINANCE

Private equity has tons of cash.
But can’t find liquidity events
Stagnation can’t go much longer
Private equity needs lower rates ASAP.

Global deal-making at 10-year low
Will lower interest rates push it back up?

2024 could be a year for distressed investors
If rates don’t come down fast and hard.

REAL ESTATE

2024 housing market resolutions
From Zillow’s chief economist.

The housing market’s troubles
Waterfall down to other industries

$117B of office loans need refinancing
The Fed better reduce rates quickly.

TECHNOLOGY

SpaceX launches cell service satellites
Expanded cell service is coming to the world.

10 biggest science breakthroughs of 2023
It was more than an AI year.

Can a new gene editing treatment
Significantly cut bad cholesterol?

THE CHAT ON AI

The NYT lawsuit against OpenAI
Won’t destroy the company or industry

AI to transform heart disease diagnosis
Health care, where AI could be revolutionary.

AI just beat a human at creativity
Where will this lead us?

THE NEXT NORMAL

A liberal arts college is bankrupt
Should the state rescue it?

Science fiction is a big-time genre.
Is it leading us to the apocalypse?

Top insurance company CEO
Signs off on all new white male hires
And this is progress?

THE WAR ON CARBON

The earth is greener than 20 years ago
Maybe Earth likes climate change.

Rooftop solar struggles in California
Higher rates and subsidy cuts hurt.

EIA says totally electrifying heating
Will cost 77% more than natural gas

THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION

Has this guy cracked the geothermal code?
A good thing, if it’s economical.

NY offshore wind project canceled
It’s just too expensive.

India is building Singapore-sized solar farm
And environmentalists are concerned.

THE EV DREAM

BYD is new king of the EVs
BYD makes its own batteries
China is the EV juggernaut.
Japan’s Nissan to sell made-in-China EVs

EV makers need South Africa.
Biggest manganese refiner outside China

GM is an EV disaster
Well it is “Government Motors.”

THE CHINA SYNDROME

China wants women to have more babies.
They are saying “no”
Marriage and birthrates are falling in China

China factory production at 6-month low
China home sales keep falling
Hiring salaries are dropping
Xi acknowledges China’s economic challenges

Investors thought China would rebound.
It’s not happening

THE WASHING-TONE

Mexico repatriates Venezuelan refugees
Why weren’t they doing this before?

2023 political typology
Where do you fit in?

Biden wants more tariffs on China’s EVs
Following Trump’s China tariff lead.

MAKING A BETTER YOU

To live really well
We need to embrace uselessness

For happiness in the New Year
Stop overdoing everything

Four practical lessons from Taoism
Good ones here!

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

Levi’s CEO on washing your jeans.
Leave them on in the shower

The age people lose their virginity
They don’t waste time in Iceland!

Don’t run down a pigeon in Tokyo.
You could be charged with a crime

SONG OF THE WEEK

“Running on Empty”
Jackson Browne and Billy Strings live.
Some lyrics are poetry, ya know.

Bonus track…

Billy Strings performs “Ramble On”

Oh…you want the Led Zeppelin version?
“Ramble On” from 2007, brothers and sisters.

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

What’s the secret to Russia’s economic resilience?
From the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

Civil War trailer.
Oh boy, the film we don’t need today.

How about a little 1973 Zeppelin?
“The Ocean” live at Madison Square Garden.

Three years alone in the woods
A man builds his cabin.

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

Brown butter ricotta rigatoni
Yummy stuff!

The 16 best burger chains in the US
Time for a road trip!

The birthplace of famous cocktails
Did the Manhattan come from Manhattan?

THE RANDOMS

For readers of last week’s Big Think: I made a mistake suggesting that I choose chaos over order. If chaos is the norm and order is the anomaly, as I had suggested in that essay, then we don’t really get to choose chaos, since it is the norm.

I, and the great majority of you readers, probably have no idea what true chaos really is. The people in Ukraine and Gaza certainly know.

Which global central bank will be the first to cut interest rates?

If Ukraine can endure Russia’s winter onslaught, then maybe the Russian people will be ready to force Putin to back out of Ukraine. Will Western support for Ukraine continue?

If Taiwan were a struggling economy and society, you could argue a takeover from China could be a benevolent act. But Taiwan has a globally important economy and a very well-working and free society. So instead, President Xi’s unification ambition seems nothing but imperialist.

Imagine if a Western country decided it should take over a country rich in natural resources in Africa or South America. Given Russia’s interest in Ukraine and China’s interest in Taiwan, is it time for Western countries to re-embrace imperialism?

With Western companies and investors fleeing China, what could catalyze their economic turnaround? The government will likely be forced to provide assistance or stimulus of some kind, but Xi’s chokehold on industry and society will likely keep China walking toward more economic challenges.

In September of 1986, the Harvard Business Review published “The Folly of Free Trade.” Maybe we need to read this article again today. Why did we blow by all the warning signs?

EVs are supposedly losing prospective buyers in the US. Investors are souring on EV charging stations. How can charging stations return a profit when, in the time it takes to charge one EV, a traditional gas station could fuel 10 normal cars?

Do you think any Black Swans will surface in 2024?

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Is Order the Anomaly?
December 29, 2023

Breathing Causes Climate Change
December 22, 2023